Yesterday Mike Boone invoked Sylvester the Cat and Harry Truman to explain his "positive" spin on the Canadiens season thus far.
In reply, I would like to refer to a line appropriated by and sometimes attributed to another US president, Abraham Lincoln.
“You can please some of the people all of the time, you can please all of the people some of the time, but you can’t please all of the people all of the time”.
The Canadiens have proven this line is a fit for them. Pleasing all the people? Well that happened as recently as an Erik Cole against Roberto Luongo. We all know they please some people all the time too.
In the wake of the Kaberle trade, my estimation is that Canadiens have not pleased all the people this time. But they weren't probably aiming for that impossible goal.
Please the media? Good luck, they're too grumpy these days as they realize they might have to find new ways to come up with stories as the press conference gravy train delivers drivel readers don't want to read...
Please those who have their minds made up? Impossible. Might caue an internal rupture causing them to have to do the thing they despise most -- admit they were wrong.
A team can only do what it thinks is best and hope the results they anticipate go about pleasing the people.
My favourite part of all this is how I'm suddenly hearing almost gushing love and admiration for the player that was traded away.
Give me a break.
I have defended Spacek on a few occasions, but I scarcely remember many people joining in. I certainly never remember outward display of this highest regard from those who are otherwise just dying for interesting things to write about.
On the whole, I'd say that Spacek had a lot more trouble pleasing all the people all of the time than did the organization during his tenure. Much maligned, this may be the biggest outpouring for him yet (and he hasn't played in weeks).
Showing posts with label Jaroslav. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jaroslav. Show all posts
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Spacek Interviewed
Back after a couple of days off on holiday. I didn't know how much I needed one. Now I know that I need another. Luckily the hockey world was kind – refraining from making any news of note for another week. Maybe there's a hint of disappointment in that for me, but there must also be relief given some signings in recent Augusts for our illustrious GM.
At risk of becoming the voice of Jaroslav Spacek, I wanted to point you all to a lengthy interview with the new Habs blueliner from the Journal de Montreal via Canoe
I have paraphrased from the translation of a probable translation. Take the quotes with a very large grain of salt. The themes should hopefully be maintained:
Spacek not an offensive defenceman
At least in his own opinion, Jaroslav isn't an offensive player. Still, 45 points ain't shabby.
Has a bad memory
Maybe the question I assume was asked wasn't, but Spacek appears to say he doesn' know any of his new teammates. He certainly should know Hamrlik, having been part of the same Olympic gold medal hockey team in 1998. Perhaps he's written Roman off just like 3/4 of Canadiens fans.
Calls for patience
Wise for his age. That or he knows he needs to buy his team some time from the fans here. Spacek thinks some parts of finding team chemistry will take time:
A question and answer session followed:
Not quite driving to Montreal the minute he's signed, but I'll take it. It explains why we didn't sign him for one year...
A diplomat as well as a good negotiator of contracts.
He may be surprised about the differences between us and Oiler fans. Hopefully he won't have to find out about the special cheer reserved for repeated defensive turnovers too early in the year...
A good level of lingering disappointment is good. Too bad the reporter forgot to ask why he signed elsewhere the minute free agency hit after that Cup run, though.
Olympic gold's not a bad way to launch a career at all. As he didn't mention the bronze, I'm guessing he's not so hot on the losing experience as the winning.
A summer vacation in Czech never hurt anyone. Pilsener, sausages and the like. I can't believe he didn't stay in Buffalo...
At risk of becoming the voice of Jaroslav Spacek, I wanted to point you all to a lengthy interview with the new Habs blueliner from the Journal de Montreal via Canoe
I have paraphrased from the translation of a probable translation. Take the quotes with a very large grain of salt. The themes should hopefully be maintained:
Spacek not an offensive defenceman
At least in his own opinion, Jaroslav isn't an offensive player. Still, 45 points ain't shabby.
«Mais je ne me qualifie pas pour autant comme étant un défenseur offensif. Je suis sur la glace avant tout pour empêcher l'adversaire de marquer. D'ailleurs, s'il y a une chose que je déteste par-dessus tout, c'est quand je suis sur la patinoire pour un but de l'équipe adverse.»
"I don't consider myself an offensive defenceman. I'm on the ice to stop the opposition from scoring. In fact, if there's on thing that I hate most, it's being on the ice for a goal against."
Has a bad memory
Maybe the question I assume was asked wasn't, but Spacek appears to say he doesn' know any of his new teammates. He certainly should know Hamrlik, having been part of the same Olympic gold medal hockey team in 1998. Perhaps he's written Roman off just like 3/4 of Canadiens fans.
Calls for patience
Wise for his age. That or he knows he needs to buy his team some time from the fans here. Spacek thinks some parts of finding team chemistry will take time:
«Quand je regarde notre formation, je constate que nous présenterons une toute nouvelle équipe aux amateurs de Montréal. C'est évident que ça prendra un certain temps avant de trouver les bonnes lignes d'attaque, mais je suis persuadé que les entraîneurs et la direction ont déjà de bonnes idées à ce sujet.»
"When I look at the team, I can see that we are an entirely new proposition for the fans in Montreal. It's clear that it will take some time to find productive line combinations, but I'm convinced that the coaches and the managers have good ideas on the subject."
A question and answer session followed:
Q: The Canadiens are your 6th NHL team (after the Panther, Hawks, Blue Jackets, Oilers and Sabres). Did you ever think you'd end up in Montreal?
A: I'm really looking forward to joining the Habs, who have shown a real commitment to me with a 3-year contract. It was important for me to sign a contract that was over a few years.
Not quite driving to Montreal the minute he's signed, but I'll take it. It explains why we didn't sign him for one year...
Q: You've already played at the Bell Centre (vs. the Canadiens) many times. How do you find the crowd and the ambience?
A: I can't say anything but good things about Montreal when it comes to hockey. Canadiens fans are unique among NHL fans, making the Bell Centre a magical place to play. My family can't wait to hear the "Olé, Olé" cheer as we approach the end of a game with a lead!
A diplomat as well as a good negotiator of contracts.
Q: Montreal fans can be unforgiving, and have a tendency to let the team know when things are going badly. How do you feel about that?
A: I'm very familiar with the reputation of Canadians fans. I know that fans and the organisation take their hockey very seriously. They are knowledgable hockey fans and they want to see their team work hard to win games, which is a good thing. It was very similar when I played for Edmonton.
He may be surprised about the differences between us and Oiler fans. Hopefully he won't have to find out about the special cheer reserved for repeated defensive turnovers too early in the year...
Q: What are your best NHL memories? Was it the Stanley Cup final with the Oilers in 2005-06?
A: That series was incredible. Believe me, losing in a seventh game and coming so close to getting your hands on the Cup was not a pleasant experience for me. I have to admit I still feel a bit shaken just talking about it. I'd give everything to get back there. I hope that one of these days I will be raising the Stanley Cup...
A good level of lingering disappointment is good. Too bad the reporter forgot to ask why he signed elsewhere the minute free agency hit after that Cup run, though.
Q: You won the Olympic gold with the Czech team in 1998 and the bronze in 2006 in Turin. Are these the best memories of your career?
A: Just to have the chance to play in the Olympics was a great experience. But, without a doubt, the most unforgettable experience was what I went through in Nagano. It was the first time that all the best players from the NHL were at the Olympics. It was those Olympics that really kick-started my career. To be a part of the Olympics with the best players on the planet was a great experience. We'll soon see what the next ones will be like.
Olympic gold's not a bad way to launch a career at all. As he didn't mention the bronze, I'm guessing he's not so hot on the losing experience as the winning.
Q: How are you spending your summer? Where are you going on holiday?
A: I started my summer holidays earlier than I would have liked when the Sabres missed the playoffs. I took my family to the Bahamas for a while and then we came back to Europe, where we moved into a new house in Rokycany. So I was quite busy with the move. But we have had the time to relax a bit with family and friends.
A summer vacation in Czech never hurt anyone. Pilsener, sausages and the like. I can't believe he didn't stay in Buffalo...
Friday, May 08, 2009
Carey Price: Thoroughbred In The Gates?
Are These Thoroughbred Trends?
As promised, my second post on Carey Price will deal with the question as to whether he is a thoroughbred or not. This piece is not a debate about Halak or Price (that may come later), just the thoroughbred issue.
Carey Price 2008-2009
This season is touted as a season to forget for Carey Price, but I don't think that on the whole is being very fair. I only have to look at my own writings for reminders, like this from the mid-term analysis:
But it wasn't 20 minutes of play after that post before Carey began an atrocious stretch of the season that lasted an unacceptable 14 starts and 6 weeks in all. The beginning of the downfall may have been to injury or, if you buy my pet theory, may have been the How-to-score-on-Price seminar, aka the Youngstars game, in January.
His statistics over that 14-start stretch include a 3.91 GAA, an Aebischeresque 0.862 save percentage and a paltry 5 points from a possible 28 for his team. Conversely, the other 38 games look quite acceptable indeed with a 2.46 GAA, a 0.919 save %, with a contender-like 21 wins and 9 OTLs.
Consider also that in the 14-games of putridity he had a save % under 0.900 on 8 occasions, whereas in his first 25 games that only happened on 6 occasions.
As though letting in nearly 4 goals a game weren't bad enough, it was the style in which he did it in the confidence-sapping stretch of the season that killed the team's morale almost completely by early March. It was goals within the first ten shots ten times and within the first five shots on five occasions. It was goals on consecutive opposition shots (3 times). And it was the untimely way he faltered, such as after the team got a lead or clawed back to tie it up.
All of these things happen to Marin Brodeur once in a while (see playoffs 2009) and to the next tier down a little more. And they happen to average goalies for long stretches.
But isn't that the point? Is he or is he not above average? (A thoroughbred does not conjure thoughts of running in the pack) Perhaps more pertinent, do great goalies start as average/below-average goalies (do thoroughbreds)? To get to the bottom of it, I had a look at some nice stats.
Quality shot stats
Anyone who has been watching Carey Price over the last year (starting specifically at the Philadelphia series) must surely have noticed that good shooters with a good amount of time seem to be able to beat him more than we'd like them to. Anyone who gets sight of the top of the net seems to score. Of course, the defence is heavily to blame for letting so many good shooters get so many good shots away, but there comes a point when you have to wonder -- is Umberger a good shot. If he is, who isn't?
From a subjective point of view, once you get this idea in your mind you start seeing what you want to see. That can be a problem if a goalie lets in high shots game after game. Witness Kostadis' point in the comments to the introductory portion of this series. He notes that Carey Price makes plenty of outstanding saves in some games where we end up un-doming him. Usually because we see the eventual gamewinner as a misplay. So a more objective approach is required from someone so tainted as me, stats...
Quality of shot analysis
For this part of the analysis, I sought some evidence of shot quality from statistics to probe the question properly. The first ones I found were the Behind The Net analysis based on shot quality at 5-on-5.
Here Carey proves himself to be better than average (first pleasant surprise). Based on the average ability to save shots form the positions they came from, we should have expected Carey to let in 93 goals (92.7 actuall) on 1027 shots at even strength. In play, he only let in 88 even strength goals - saving 5 goals more than he should have - good news.
I took it a step further to do some save percentage on these numbers. Basically, I calculated how many goals each goalie saved over and above the expected and divided by the number of goals expected. What this gives us is a statistic that I have called clutch saves; it gives some guide as to what's been happening with "clutch" goaltending this season.
Carey's 4.7 goals saved over 92.7 expected goals means he saves 5.1% of shots that he would have no business saving (if he were average). Very good, I thought.
Furthermore, this percentage puts Price about 32nd among goalies who play enough to warrant consideration. If you look at NHL starters, he's 18th. And if you chuck in Varlamov for good measure, Price is 19th.
The top 5 in the league are all still alive in the playoffs:
Tim Thomas (29.2%)
Simeon Varlamov (26.6%)
Roberto Luongo (26.6%)
Nikolai Khabibulin (26.4%)
Jonas Hiller (22.6%)
Others worth noting:
Henrik Lundqvist (20.8%)
Tomas Vokoun (20.7%)
Martin Brodeur (20.5%)
Pekka Rinne (15.5%)
Steve Mason (13.7%)
Jaroslav Halak (13.4%)
Cristobal Huet (13.2%)
Yann Danis (12.3%)
Cam Ward (12.2%)
Marc-Andre Fluery (3.2%)
Chris Osgood (-6.7%)
Mikka Kiprusoff (-10%)
What does this mean?
Well, it means he's average - or at least he was for the enire season.
The problem here is that averages include all goalies who play in the NHL, not just the 30 starters. So when Pogge (worst in the league, btw) steps in an lets up 9 more goals than expected in 7 games, Carey is compared to that. What's more, for me, where he currently sits is not thoroughbred territory - too many thoroughbreds are ahead of him (some almost as young).
His save percentage, though, at even strength is still a plump 0.914, so no decisive knock-down here. Based on this analysis, his toroughbred status hangs on.
Penalty-kill save %
Behind the Net also has a whole raft of other stats if you're that way inclined. For the second look, I decided to show you goalie performance while his team is a man down. The reason I choose this is because the shot quality analysis isn't done for anything but ES, also it seems logical that shots are better set up on the PP than at ES.
These stats offer a bit of a quick and rude awakening for all those people who support Carey's thorough breeding. If you look across the season for the whole league, Carey Price is in fact the worst starter across all teams in terms of save percentage on the PK. On an average of 38.6 shots per 60 minutes of PP time, Carey Price allowed an average of 7.61 goals. That means his save % was a rather embarrassing 0.803 at 4-on-5.
Now, PP shots are harder to save you say. Of course they are. But the average NHL goalie has a save % of 0.852, and that includes every weak link there is (like Mathieu Garon who saves just over 75% of PP shots in 20 games). Some good goalies have low save percentages here (Brodeur, for example at 0.816), but many don't. Thoroughbreds shouln't, I say.
The top 5 starters in the league here are:
Nicklas Backstrom (0.923)
Henrik Lundqvist (0.918)
Martin Biron (0.894)
Simeon Varlamov (0.893)
Tim Thomas (0.888)
Others to note are:
Craig Anderson (0.910)
Jaroslav Halak (0.890)
Mikka Kiprusoff (0.888)
Pekka Rinne (0.887)
Steve Mason (0.870)
Marc-Andre Fleury (0.867)
Cristobal Huet (0.866)
Jonas Hiller (0.862)
Cam Ward (0.862)
Jose Theodore (0.845)
Yann Danis (0.833)
Roberto Luongo (0.833)
What does this mean?
Well not much on its own. If Carey had been Halak-efficient it would have meant a mere 2 goals less. It's not a case on its own, but as things add up, it certainly seems to follow the pattern. It's another hit against the thoroughbred hypothesis.
Giving a chance to win
In response to Kostadis' case that LIW is wrong about Halak > Price (which is not the point of this piece, rather whether Price = thoroughbred), I thought I could take a similar approach.
He claims, that Carey Price gave the Canadiens a chance to win in 33 games of 49 (so 67.3%), whereas Halak only gave them 52.9% chance. I'll start by pointing out neither goalies stats are based on starts, which I thought they should be. Price goes up and so does Halak, with this tweak. Halak, for his part, gave opportunity for wins in 19/33, or 57.6%.
I thought I would look at things a bit closer. For can we really say that a goalie who loses in OT always gives his team a chance to win. In reality, you say, we can. And I concede on that. But for us at Lions in Winter, we generally look at how many goals a goalie allows to decide whether that would allow a win on most nights (i.e., those where his team doesn't win 6-5). While each goalie loses a couple of games this way, this subjective method actually works in the goalie's favour, since games that are lost 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 can be counted as games he gave his team a chance to win.
By this criteria, nothing really changes. But if you get generous and say that 3 GAs is a reasonable amount for a goalie in a league where average GAA is parked in between 2 and 3 year-upon-year, then it gets interesting.
Carey Price, by the 3-goal criteria, actually gave his team a chance to win 73% of the time. And, lo and behold, Jaroslav Halak gave his team a chance to win an incredible 73% of the time. Funny that it would be equal.
By this criteria, Carey has to win. But only against Halak. It doesn't really prove that anyone is or isn't a thoroughbred. After all, no one has ever accused 9th round QMJHL alum Halak of being thoroughly bred. For that we need to look at goalies on other teams - ones that actually win.
Quickly for illustration I looked at Tim Thomas, Roberto Luongo, Cam Ward and Pekka Rinne.
Tim Thomas by the first criteria (W and OTLs) gave his team a chance to win 79.6% of the time. If you guve him the 3 goal benefit of the doubt that's 83.3% of the time.
Roberto Luongo gave 74.1% and 74.1%.
Cam Ward gave 64.7% and 76.5%.
Rinne gave 67.3% and 81.6%.
This is not a random sample, but I think it's a fair group to sample if you want to look at thoroughbreds. While Carey Price and Halak look OK in isolation, in the light of day they don't stack up to Thomas or Rinne. They come close to Luongo, but to be fair to Roberto, he did have 9 shutouts which mean automatic points (not just chance at), both our guys mustered only 1 of those. I think this category shows Carey in a much better light than the other two. What's more, given his age, I think you could argue that giving his team a 73% chance to win is pretty darn goosd. Is it thoroughbred stuff? Let me just say, I'd rather have Rinne based on this season... (is he a thoroughbred?)
One streak to skew all stats
There's a very very solid case to be made that it was all due to one bad streak. But was it just a bad streak? Did 14 games destroy everything? It's a valid argument, I concede.
For me it's about trends, though. If this were the very first slump from Carey Price, then I'm sure it would be water off a ducks back. It's not though, and a responsible scientist like myself has to ask whether the good is the aberration, or the bad. Those of us counting will note that Carey Price has had a few breakdowns since his arrival with the team. To be generous (and a bit facetious) I'll call these non-thoroughbred episodes, or NTEs. The more research-minded among us will note that he also had a pretty long NTE the season following his selection in the first round, not to mention his blow-up in the WHL playoffs that year. So to enumerate the NTEs:
1) 2005-06 Tri-City Americans
2) January 2008 Montreal and Hamilton
3) April 2008 Round 2 Montreal vs. Philadelphia
4) January and February 2009 Montreal (the aforementioned 14 games)
5) April 2009 Round 1 Montreal vs. Boston
That of course allows us to paint every stretch in between as one where the opposite position is held (i.e., a thoroughbred stretch):
1) 2006-07 All teams (Tri-City, Canada, Hamilton)
2) October to December 2007 Montreal
3) February to April 2008 Montreal (including Round 1 vs. Boston)
4) October to December 2008 Montreal
5) March 2009
On balance there are as many good games as bad in there, and most games are probably just adequate or average (less than 3 goals, saving 90% of shots). What we have is a pint glass with half a pint of beer and half a pint of air. If you go for the glass half full approach, you see the Gold medal for Canada the Calder Cup, the end of the 2007-08 season and Round 1 and the very sturdy beginning for this last season. It all adds up for you. The glass half empty perspective notices the floundering in the playoffs, the 14-game stretch to forget and the easy goals, and starts to question whether sub-NHL success will ever be translated.
I've come to the end of this and realise that despite a lot of stats, not much has changed. I haven't proved that Carey Price is not a thoroughbred, nor can we look and say that he is one. I think I would conclude that there is plenty of reason to question whether his progression will be as smoothe as some assure us it will be. I think there's enough evidence to suggest that anyone who says he's not a thoroughbred is at least as sane as someone who purports he is. I think that's all I wanted to do - prove our point of view on this isn't as crazy as some make it out to be.
What I can say with some assurance is that this season he was not a great goalie. On average he was an average goalie. Is that good for 21? I don't know.
I think we'll have to wait and see what happens by next season on this one. Maybe even wait until the next playoff test. Given that Gainey is basing our team around this guy come hell or high water, I'd recommend to anyone that hasn't already dedicated 50 blog pages to this to take the glass half full approach -- it'll be better for your sanity.
Carey Price 2008-2009
This season is touted as a season to forget for Carey Price, but I don't think that on the whole is being very fair. I only have to look at my own writings for reminders, like this from the mid-term analysis:
Carey Price: A+
Top ten in multiple categories in NHL rankings, his contribution to the Habs has been undeniable so far. His value to the fan, as we've seen during Halak's reign, is that he positions himself so well and so far ahead of the play that many saves look too easy. Only a year into his career, to be A+ on a 56-point team midway through the season is an impressive feat. Tough tests to come though, no doubt.
But it wasn't 20 minutes of play after that post before Carey began an atrocious stretch of the season that lasted an unacceptable 14 starts and 6 weeks in all. The beginning of the downfall may have been to injury or, if you buy my pet theory, may have been the How-to-score-on-Price seminar, aka the Youngstars game, in January.
His statistics over that 14-start stretch include a 3.91 GAA, an Aebischeresque 0.862 save percentage and a paltry 5 points from a possible 28 for his team. Conversely, the other 38 games look quite acceptable indeed with a 2.46 GAA, a 0.919 save %, with a contender-like 21 wins and 9 OTLs.
Consider also that in the 14-games of putridity he had a save % under 0.900 on 8 occasions, whereas in his first 25 games that only happened on 6 occasions.
As though letting in nearly 4 goals a game weren't bad enough, it was the style in which he did it in the confidence-sapping stretch of the season that killed the team's morale almost completely by early March. It was goals within the first ten shots ten times and within the first five shots on five occasions. It was goals on consecutive opposition shots (3 times). And it was the untimely way he faltered, such as after the team got a lead or clawed back to tie it up.
All of these things happen to Marin Brodeur once in a while (see playoffs 2009) and to the next tier down a little more. And they happen to average goalies for long stretches.
But isn't that the point? Is he or is he not above average? (A thoroughbred does not conjure thoughts of running in the pack) Perhaps more pertinent, do great goalies start as average/below-average goalies (do thoroughbreds)? To get to the bottom of it, I had a look at some nice stats.
Quality shot stats
Anyone who has been watching Carey Price over the last year (starting specifically at the Philadelphia series) must surely have noticed that good shooters with a good amount of time seem to be able to beat him more than we'd like them to. Anyone who gets sight of the top of the net seems to score. Of course, the defence is heavily to blame for letting so many good shooters get so many good shots away, but there comes a point when you have to wonder -- is Umberger a good shot. If he is, who isn't?
From a subjective point of view, once you get this idea in your mind you start seeing what you want to see. That can be a problem if a goalie lets in high shots game after game. Witness Kostadis' point in the comments to the introductory portion of this series. He notes that Carey Price makes plenty of outstanding saves in some games where we end up un-doming him. Usually because we see the eventual gamewinner as a misplay. So a more objective approach is required from someone so tainted as me, stats...
Quality of shot analysis
For this part of the analysis, I sought some evidence of shot quality from statistics to probe the question properly. The first ones I found were the Behind The Net analysis based on shot quality at 5-on-5.
Here Carey proves himself to be better than average (first pleasant surprise). Based on the average ability to save shots form the positions they came from, we should have expected Carey to let in 93 goals (92.7 actuall) on 1027 shots at even strength. In play, he only let in 88 even strength goals - saving 5 goals more than he should have - good news.
I took it a step further to do some save percentage on these numbers. Basically, I calculated how many goals each goalie saved over and above the expected and divided by the number of goals expected. What this gives us is a statistic that I have called clutch saves; it gives some guide as to what's been happening with "clutch" goaltending this season.
Carey's 4.7 goals saved over 92.7 expected goals means he saves 5.1% of shots that he would have no business saving (if he were average). Very good, I thought.
Furthermore, this percentage puts Price about 32nd among goalies who play enough to warrant consideration. If you look at NHL starters, he's 18th. And if you chuck in Varlamov for good measure, Price is 19th.
The top 5 in the league are all still alive in the playoffs:
Tim Thomas (29.2%)
Simeon Varlamov (26.6%)
Roberto Luongo (26.6%)
Nikolai Khabibulin (26.4%)
Jonas Hiller (22.6%)
Others worth noting:
Henrik Lundqvist (20.8%)
Tomas Vokoun (20.7%)
Martin Brodeur (20.5%)
Pekka Rinne (15.5%)
Steve Mason (13.7%)
Jaroslav Halak (13.4%)
Cristobal Huet (13.2%)
Yann Danis (12.3%)
Cam Ward (12.2%)
Marc-Andre Fluery (3.2%)
Chris Osgood (-6.7%)
Mikka Kiprusoff (-10%)
What does this mean?
Well, it means he's average - or at least he was for the enire season.
The problem here is that averages include all goalies who play in the NHL, not just the 30 starters. So when Pogge (worst in the league, btw) steps in an lets up 9 more goals than expected in 7 games, Carey is compared to that. What's more, for me, where he currently sits is not thoroughbred territory - too many thoroughbreds are ahead of him (some almost as young).
His save percentage, though, at even strength is still a plump 0.914, so no decisive knock-down here. Based on this analysis, his toroughbred status hangs on.
Penalty-kill save %
Behind the Net also has a whole raft of other stats if you're that way inclined. For the second look, I decided to show you goalie performance while his team is a man down. The reason I choose this is because the shot quality analysis isn't done for anything but ES, also it seems logical that shots are better set up on the PP than at ES.
These stats offer a bit of a quick and rude awakening for all those people who support Carey's thorough breeding. If you look across the season for the whole league, Carey Price is in fact the worst starter across all teams in terms of save percentage on the PK. On an average of 38.6 shots per 60 minutes of PP time, Carey Price allowed an average of 7.61 goals. That means his save % was a rather embarrassing 0.803 at 4-on-5.
Now, PP shots are harder to save you say. Of course they are. But the average NHL goalie has a save % of 0.852, and that includes every weak link there is (like Mathieu Garon who saves just over 75% of PP shots in 20 games). Some good goalies have low save percentages here (Brodeur, for example at 0.816), but many don't. Thoroughbreds shouln't, I say.
The top 5 starters in the league here are:
Nicklas Backstrom (0.923)
Henrik Lundqvist (0.918)
Martin Biron (0.894)
Simeon Varlamov (0.893)
Tim Thomas (0.888)
Others to note are:
Craig Anderson (0.910)
Jaroslav Halak (0.890)
Mikka Kiprusoff (0.888)
Pekka Rinne (0.887)
Steve Mason (0.870)
Marc-Andre Fleury (0.867)
Cristobal Huet (0.866)
Jonas Hiller (0.862)
Cam Ward (0.862)
Jose Theodore (0.845)
Yann Danis (0.833)
Roberto Luongo (0.833)
What does this mean?
Well not much on its own. If Carey had been Halak-efficient it would have meant a mere 2 goals less. It's not a case on its own, but as things add up, it certainly seems to follow the pattern. It's another hit against the thoroughbred hypothesis.
Giving a chance to win
In response to Kostadis' case that LIW is wrong about Halak > Price (which is not the point of this piece, rather whether Price = thoroughbred), I thought I could take a similar approach.
He claims, that Carey Price gave the Canadiens a chance to win in 33 games of 49 (so 67.3%), whereas Halak only gave them 52.9% chance. I'll start by pointing out neither goalies stats are based on starts, which I thought they should be. Price goes up and so does Halak, with this tweak. Halak, for his part, gave opportunity for wins in 19/33, or 57.6%.
I thought I would look at things a bit closer. For can we really say that a goalie who loses in OT always gives his team a chance to win. In reality, you say, we can. And I concede on that. But for us at Lions in Winter, we generally look at how many goals a goalie allows to decide whether that would allow a win on most nights (i.e., those where his team doesn't win 6-5). While each goalie loses a couple of games this way, this subjective method actually works in the goalie's favour, since games that are lost 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 can be counted as games he gave his team a chance to win.
By this criteria, nothing really changes. But if you get generous and say that 3 GAs is a reasonable amount for a goalie in a league where average GAA is parked in between 2 and 3 year-upon-year, then it gets interesting.
Carey Price, by the 3-goal criteria, actually gave his team a chance to win 73% of the time. And, lo and behold, Jaroslav Halak gave his team a chance to win an incredible 73% of the time. Funny that it would be equal.
By this criteria, Carey has to win. But only against Halak. It doesn't really prove that anyone is or isn't a thoroughbred. After all, no one has ever accused 9th round QMJHL alum Halak of being thoroughly bred. For that we need to look at goalies on other teams - ones that actually win.
Quickly for illustration I looked at Tim Thomas, Roberto Luongo, Cam Ward and Pekka Rinne.
Tim Thomas by the first criteria (W and OTLs) gave his team a chance to win 79.6% of the time. If you guve him the 3 goal benefit of the doubt that's 83.3% of the time.
Roberto Luongo gave 74.1% and 74.1%.
Cam Ward gave 64.7% and 76.5%.
Rinne gave 67.3% and 81.6%.
This is not a random sample, but I think it's a fair group to sample if you want to look at thoroughbreds. While Carey Price and Halak look OK in isolation, in the light of day they don't stack up to Thomas or Rinne. They come close to Luongo, but to be fair to Roberto, he did have 9 shutouts which mean automatic points (not just chance at), both our guys mustered only 1 of those. I think this category shows Carey in a much better light than the other two. What's more, given his age, I think you could argue that giving his team a 73% chance to win is pretty darn goosd. Is it thoroughbred stuff? Let me just say, I'd rather have Rinne based on this season... (is he a thoroughbred?)
One streak to skew all stats
There's a very very solid case to be made that it was all due to one bad streak. But was it just a bad streak? Did 14 games destroy everything? It's a valid argument, I concede.
For me it's about trends, though. If this were the very first slump from Carey Price, then I'm sure it would be water off a ducks back. It's not though, and a responsible scientist like myself has to ask whether the good is the aberration, or the bad. Those of us counting will note that Carey Price has had a few breakdowns since his arrival with the team. To be generous (and a bit facetious) I'll call these non-thoroughbred episodes, or NTEs. The more research-minded among us will note that he also had a pretty long NTE the season following his selection in the first round, not to mention his blow-up in the WHL playoffs that year. So to enumerate the NTEs:
1) 2005-06 Tri-City Americans
2) January 2008 Montreal and Hamilton
3) April 2008 Round 2 Montreal vs. Philadelphia
4) January and February 2009 Montreal (the aforementioned 14 games)
5) April 2009 Round 1 Montreal vs. Boston
That of course allows us to paint every stretch in between as one where the opposite position is held (i.e., a thoroughbred stretch):
1) 2006-07 All teams (Tri-City, Canada, Hamilton)
2) October to December 2007 Montreal
3) February to April 2008 Montreal (including Round 1 vs. Boston)
4) October to December 2008 Montreal
5) March 2009
On balance there are as many good games as bad in there, and most games are probably just adequate or average (less than 3 goals, saving 90% of shots). What we have is a pint glass with half a pint of beer and half a pint of air. If you go for the glass half full approach, you see the Gold medal for Canada the Calder Cup, the end of the 2007-08 season and Round 1 and the very sturdy beginning for this last season. It all adds up for you. The glass half empty perspective notices the floundering in the playoffs, the 14-game stretch to forget and the easy goals, and starts to question whether sub-NHL success will ever be translated.
I've come to the end of this and realise that despite a lot of stats, not much has changed. I haven't proved that Carey Price is not a thoroughbred, nor can we look and say that he is one. I think I would conclude that there is plenty of reason to question whether his progression will be as smoothe as some assure us it will be. I think there's enough evidence to suggest that anyone who says he's not a thoroughbred is at least as sane as someone who purports he is. I think that's all I wanted to do - prove our point of view on this isn't as crazy as some make it out to be.
What I can say with some assurance is that this season he was not a great goalie. On average he was an average goalie. Is that good for 21? I don't know.
I think we'll have to wait and see what happens by next season on this one. Maybe even wait until the next playoff test. Given that Gainey is basing our team around this guy come hell or high water, I'd recommend to anyone that hasn't already dedicated 50 blog pages to this to take the glass half full approach -- it'll be better for your sanity.
Monday, February 09, 2009
Halak
This Is Your Chance
Jaro,
You didn't think you'd ever get a chance. You got one. You didn't think you'd get another. You got one.
This is your third chance. You can make it count. People are waiting to see a young goalie who can offer something more than a junior MVP trophy and a line in the CV saying drafted 4 places after Sidney Crosby. People are waiting to see a goalie who can make saves. Glove saves even.
The path is well trodden by Canadiens goaltenders. Theodore walked here, Huet did, even your buddy Carey did it.
You must force the hand. Start by grinding out the win. Throw in a few saves to save Bouillon, Komisarek and O'Byrne their customary blushes. Later, rinse, repeat.
The deck is stacked for you this time Jaroslav. There'll be no more inexplicable replacements for the final clinching game, or stubborn coaches sticking with the anointed one now. The faith is yours to take, the mantle to follow.
Can you handle it? Show us...
[Sorry for writing to the player. I know it's clumsy. In my head, he'll read it...]
You didn't think you'd ever get a chance. You got one. You didn't think you'd get another. You got one.
This is your third chance. You can make it count. People are waiting to see a young goalie who can offer something more than a junior MVP trophy and a line in the CV saying drafted 4 places after Sidney Crosby. People are waiting to see a goalie who can make saves. Glove saves even.
The path is well trodden by Canadiens goaltenders. Theodore walked here, Huet did, even your buddy Carey did it.
You must force the hand. Start by grinding out the win. Throw in a few saves to save Bouillon, Komisarek and O'Byrne their customary blushes. Later, rinse, repeat.
The deck is stacked for you this time Jaroslav. There'll be no more inexplicable replacements for the final clinching game, or stubborn coaches sticking with the anointed one now. The faith is yours to take, the mantle to follow.
Can you handle it? Show us...
[Sorry for writing to the player. I know it's clumsy. In my head, he'll read it...]
Friday, June 27, 2008
Habs Review 2007-08:
Jaroslav Halak
Habs Review 2007-08:
Jaroslav Halak
The numbers
2007-08
6 GP: 2 W, 1 L, 1 OTL, 2.11 GAA, .934 Save%, 1 SO
Career best year – 2006-07
16 GP: 10 W, 6 L, 0 OTL, 2.89 GAA, .906 Save%, 2 SO
2007-08 playoffs
2 GP: 0 W, 1 L, 2.34 GAA, .889 Save%, 0 SO
Career best playoffs
Rookie (same as above)
Plays of the game: 1
Game pucks: 2
Domes: 17
3 Star selections: 2 First
The story
Where he started the season
He didn't even stand a chance of making the team this year off the bat as management wanted Price in, no matter what. Gainey had made up his mind in 2005 that Price was our goalie of the future – and that meant he would be in the NHL in 2007. With a proven #1 (and All-Star) in Huet already there too, Halak's case was hopeless. What Price had done the year before with Team Canada and Hamilton was very impressive, but Halak had been equally as impressive in the AHL and the NHL as he put up very good numbers. Halak took his demotion like a man (eventually) and continued to put up stellar numbers on the farm. He knew very well that Huet was likely a one year obstacle and it would soon enough be Jaro vs. Carey for the Habs long-term #1 apot.
The season
Halak finally got his chance to play in Montreal in January when the weight of a city proved to be too much for young Price to handle. He had a brief call-up in December that lasted 20 minutes while Huet was hurt, but now this was for real, they were choosing him instead of Price. Well, they in fact chose neither as Huet played almost all the games while Price was down. Halak again only saw one period of action, this time in relief for Huet. Little did Jaro know, but his call-up wasn't a reward for his great play, it was a chance for Price to get some confidence back and soon enough Carey was back up and Halak was back to tending the Bulldogs' cage. After Huet was traded for nothing Halak finally got the permanent call-up he had earned at least a year earlier. This time he would see some action, 4 full games to be precise. He did well in his 4 games as he only let in 9 goals and recorded a shutout. It was obvious, however, that the team wanted Price (despite Halak's superior numbers) as their #1 and come playoff time Caery was the one who would lead the way. Again the pressure got to Carey in the playoffs and again Halak was given his shot, this time, however, Jaro wasn't able to deliver a win in Philly so it was decided we would let the good Habs ship sink with Carey at the helm.
Highlights: Halak doing what he does for a minute. Less time than other highlight reels, but this song (while I'm certain it might find popularity in Eastern Europe) couldn't end soon enough for me.
Halak by the numbers: Canadiens.com
Lions' links on Halak:
Halak of respect?
Does three goalies constitute depth?
Halak shoulld start; Lemieux should sit
Locke and Halak given their chance
What's right for Price?
Disappointing News for Halak
Well Done Jaroslav
Grade: B-
I can't think of much more that Halak could have done in the regular season. He did what he was told and never complained. Back and forth to Hamilton he went as the team tried desperately to sort Price out. Halak proved in his starts towards the end of the year that he can be a #1 and that maybe, just maybe, he should be given consideration as the Habs #1. His play in the playoffs (1 1/3 games worth) wasn't too awe inspiring, but with the team unable to capitalize in front of him it surely wasn't entirely his fault. If anything, this season showed me that we have a mature, able, NHL calibre goalie in our midst and we should be very careful not to let him go. If Price turns out to be Jim Carey or Cam Ward then we will all be a lot happier knowing that we have Halak on board to steer the ship right again.
Where we'd have him next season
The one area that Gainey does not have to evaluate this summer is goaltending. Halak is set to become a restricted free-agent, so there is some concern there, but in theory we should have no hesitation in signing him. It is hard to tell what the goalie situation will be like in Montreal come next Spring, but I am pretty confident that one of either Price or Halak (hopefully both) will rise up and give us a legitimate keeper that we won't have to worry about. All Halak has to do now is continue to do what he has always done. He has to work hard, keep a good attitude and continue to perform on the ice. If he does all that he will be a #1 (or #1b) goalie in this league and hoepfully it will be with a big CH on his chest.
2007-08
6 GP: 2 W, 1 L, 1 OTL, 2.11 GAA, .934 Save%, 1 SO
Career best year – 2006-07
16 GP: 10 W, 6 L, 0 OTL, 2.89 GAA, .906 Save%, 2 SO
2007-08 playoffs
2 GP: 0 W, 1 L, 2.34 GAA, .889 Save%, 0 SO
Career best playoffs
Rookie (same as above)
Plays of the game: 1
Game pucks: 2
Domes: 17
3 Star selections: 2 First
The story
Where he started the season
He didn't even stand a chance of making the team this year off the bat as management wanted Price in, no matter what. Gainey had made up his mind in 2005 that Price was our goalie of the future – and that meant he would be in the NHL in 2007. With a proven #1 (and All-Star) in Huet already there too, Halak's case was hopeless. What Price had done the year before with Team Canada and Hamilton was very impressive, but Halak had been equally as impressive in the AHL and the NHL as he put up very good numbers. Halak took his demotion like a man (eventually) and continued to put up stellar numbers on the farm. He knew very well that Huet was likely a one year obstacle and it would soon enough be Jaro vs. Carey for the Habs long-term #1 apot.
The season
Halak finally got his chance to play in Montreal in January when the weight of a city proved to be too much for young Price to handle. He had a brief call-up in December that lasted 20 minutes while Huet was hurt, but now this was for real, they were choosing him instead of Price. Well, they in fact chose neither as Huet played almost all the games while Price was down. Halak again only saw one period of action, this time in relief for Huet. Little did Jaro know, but his call-up wasn't a reward for his great play, it was a chance for Price to get some confidence back and soon enough Carey was back up and Halak was back to tending the Bulldogs' cage. After Huet was traded for nothing Halak finally got the permanent call-up he had earned at least a year earlier. This time he would see some action, 4 full games to be precise. He did well in his 4 games as he only let in 9 goals and recorded a shutout. It was obvious, however, that the team wanted Price (despite Halak's superior numbers) as their #1 and come playoff time Caery was the one who would lead the way. Again the pressure got to Carey in the playoffs and again Halak was given his shot, this time, however, Jaro wasn't able to deliver a win in Philly so it was decided we would let the good Habs ship sink with Carey at the helm.
Highlights: Halak doing what he does for a minute. Less time than other highlight reels, but this song (while I'm certain it might find popularity in Eastern Europe) couldn't end soon enough for me.
Halak by the numbers: Canadiens.com
Lions' links on Halak:
Halak of respect?
Does three goalies constitute depth?
Halak shoulld start; Lemieux should sit
Locke and Halak given their chance
What's right for Price?
Disappointing News for Halak
Well Done Jaroslav
Grade: B-
I can't think of much more that Halak could have done in the regular season. He did what he was told and never complained. Back and forth to Hamilton he went as the team tried desperately to sort Price out. Halak proved in his starts towards the end of the year that he can be a #1 and that maybe, just maybe, he should be given consideration as the Habs #1. His play in the playoffs (1 1/3 games worth) wasn't too awe inspiring, but with the team unable to capitalize in front of him it surely wasn't entirely his fault. If anything, this season showed me that we have a mature, able, NHL calibre goalie in our midst and we should be very careful not to let him go. If Price turns out to be Jim Carey or Cam Ward then we will all be a lot happier knowing that we have Halak on board to steer the ship right again.
Where we'd have him next season
The one area that Gainey does not have to evaluate this summer is goaltending. Halak is set to become a restricted free-agent, so there is some concern there, but in theory we should have no hesitation in signing him. It is hard to tell what the goalie situation will be like in Montreal come next Spring, but I am pretty confident that one of either Price or Halak (hopefully both) will rise up and give us a legitimate keeper that we won't have to worry about. All Halak has to do now is continue to do what he has always done. He has to work hard, keep a good attitude and continue to perform on the ice. If he does all that he will be a #1 (or #1b) goalie in this league and hoepfully it will be with a big CH on his chest.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Well Done Jaroslav
Thirteen months too late? – Jaroslav Halak played in a pressure-cooker situation for the Montreal Canadiens.
Whether it's late or not. Whether he should have been given his chance last night or not. Tobalev asked whether anyone has considered the possibility that Halak could be better than Price. We touched on this in January as well.
Regardless of what Carbonneau decides, all that is important today is that we must tip our hats to the young man, who generally is not allowed to be described as young, talented, mature, successful in the AHL for fear that it might upset the applecart. However, I will leave the debates on positives of two excellent prospects for a quiet day in the summer...
For now, we should all recognise what a brilliant job Jaroslav Halak did last night for the Canadiens. He stepped into a game situation for the first time in a month. For the 5th time since he became number 2, and for only the 7th time this season.
For the third time in 7 appearances, he has left nothing wanting, no goals behind him. He made the critical difficult save that Carey could not on the night. He got his team believing again in one pad sweep.
He has been the model of patience and professionalism. He has shown great maturity. He has been the perfect backup.
Well done Jaroslav. And thanks for giving me something to be happy about this morning.
Whether it's late or not. Whether he should have been given his chance last night or not. Tobalev asked whether anyone has considered the possibility that Halak could be better than Price. We touched on this in January as well.
Regardless of what Carbonneau decides, all that is important today is that we must tip our hats to the young man, who generally is not allowed to be described as young, talented, mature, successful in the AHL for fear that it might upset the applecart. However, I will leave the debates on positives of two excellent prospects for a quiet day in the summer...
For now, we should all recognise what a brilliant job Jaroslav Halak did last night for the Canadiens. He stepped into a game situation for the first time in a month. For the 5th time since he became number 2, and for only the 7th time this season.
For the third time in 7 appearances, he has left nothing wanting, no goals behind him. He made the critical difficult save that Carey could not on the night. He got his team believing again in one pad sweep.
He has been the model of patience and professionalism. He has shown great maturity. He has been the perfect backup.
Well done Jaroslav. And thanks for giving me something to be happy about this morning.
Monday, December 03, 2007
Halak shoulld start; Lemieux should sit
Tomorrow's game is against the (once and still) Mighty Red Wings.
Want a change to the way things have been going? How about starting a goalie that has never lost at the Bell Centre...
No not Brodeur, Jaroslav Halak.
In 7 starts at the Bell Centre (or Molson Centre if you're the editor of Yahoo), Halak has won every time out. He also has 2 shutouts on top of everything else. His stats in Montreal are sensational in fact (see here).
In other news, the Canadiens feel they need to prolong a Tuesday game by honouring the rivalry with the 81-year Red Wings. Apart from the timing being completely strange (will we do this every time a square number comes around?), the ceremony stands to be very strange. According to Habs Inside/Out:
Now, I may not remember the rivalries of Gordie Howe, Pronovost, Beliveau and Moore, but I'm pretty sure the Habs are stretching when they ask Richer and Claude Lemieux to come along. In Richer's heyday (that would have been his first time here), the Red Wings were an awful outfit, only making the playoffs because Yzerman was putting up 120+ seasons and the North Stars and Maple Leafs couldn't get their acts together either. Lemieux was here during that time too, and left Montreal well before Sergei Fedorov and Niklas Lidstrom arrived to turn the RWs around.
Ironically though, of the post-expansion players. Claude Lemieux would probably be classified as Red Wing rival (maybe even enemy) #1. His hit on Kris Draper at the Avalanche-Red Wings back-and-forth was the powderkeg that set that (probably more tangible) on fire.
Besides the fact his hit was dirty. And that Draper will be on the ice. I don't see many good reasons for Lemieux to be at a ceremony with guys like Howe, Beliveau, Dionne and Delvecchio. I think Lemieux should call up tomorrow morning and excuse himself from this one.
His ceremony will come the day they reinstate the Hartford Whalers.
Want a change to the way things have been going? How about starting a goalie that has never lost at the Bell Centre...
No not Brodeur, Jaroslav Halak.
In 7 starts at the Bell Centre (or Molson Centre if you're the editor of Yahoo), Halak has won every time out. He also has 2 shutouts on top of everything else. His stats in Montreal are sensational in fact (see here).
In other news, the Canadiens feel they need to prolong a Tuesday game by honouring the rivalry with the 81-year Red Wings. Apart from the timing being completely strange (will we do this every time a square number comes around?), the ceremony stands to be very strange. According to Habs Inside/Out:
The Red Wings are expected to be represented by legends Gordie Howe, Ted Lindsay, Alex Delvecchio, Marcel Pronovost and Marcel Dionne. The Canadiens are expected to have icons Jean Béliveau and Dickie Moore taking part, with Jean-Guy Talbot, Stéphane Richer and Claude Lemieux.
Now, I may not remember the rivalries of Gordie Howe, Pronovost, Beliveau and Moore, but I'm pretty sure the Habs are stretching when they ask Richer and Claude Lemieux to come along. In Richer's heyday (that would have been his first time here), the Red Wings were an awful outfit, only making the playoffs because Yzerman was putting up 120+ seasons and the North Stars and Maple Leafs couldn't get their acts together either. Lemieux was here during that time too, and left Montreal well before Sergei Fedorov and Niklas Lidstrom arrived to turn the RWs around.
Ironically though, of the post-expansion players. Claude Lemieux would probably be classified as Red Wing rival (maybe even enemy) #1. His hit on Kris Draper at the Avalanche-Red Wings back-and-forth was the powderkeg that set that (probably more tangible) on fire.
Besides the fact his hit was dirty. And that Draper will be on the ice. I don't see many good reasons for Lemieux to be at a ceremony with guys like Howe, Beliveau, Dionne and Delvecchio. I think Lemieux should call up tomorrow morning and excuse himself from this one.
His ceremony will come the day they reinstate the Hartford Whalers.
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