Canadiens Season Preview: Fourth Line Offense

Finally up front, the fourth line:

Stewart – Metropolit – Moen

Glen Metropolit

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (PHA/MTL)	53	6	11	17	-5	1	0	0.38	1.06	82	7.3	28
07-08 (BOS)	82	11	22	33	-3	1	5	0.49	1.47	141	7.8	36
06-07 (ATL/STL)	77	14	19	33	+9	5	2	0.90	2.13	123	11.4	34

Even-strength profile
	Below average offensively even strength Above average in preventing GA at even strength below average at preventing chances against even strength Impressive CORSI: -8.5

Legend


Stats notes

Glen's not a player I've ever thought a lot about, but looking at his stats, this is what I notice:

1) He may be on the decline
Looking at his goals and assists per hour of hockey played, it seems Glen is falling off a cliff. Not surprising perhaps considering that he is 36 and is no Mark Messier to begin with.

2) 33 points one year
Now the 33 points are a bit of a mirage for Glen, because obviously he was used in a far greater capacity by Claude Julien than he was before or will be again – you can tell by the jump in actual points, but the drastic fall in Pts/60. That said, he is capable of scoring the occasional goal, and that should not be forgotten.

3) Good GA numbers
Being that the fourth line is usually an exercise in futility at the attacking end anyway (see the colour purple everywhere), then good defence is really all I would ask for. Between his good stats in this department last season and the greater role he enjoyed with the Bruins, Metropolit can deliver that.


Nothing new and surprising her, just good 4th line numbers for a 4th line centre. IN the salary cap era, a team can't afford to trot out Sergei Fedorov on the 4th line, so an above average guy like Glen is a boon. That is, however, until he gets in the way of prospects that need space.


Tobalev on Metropolit:

Just when you think there is room for a youngster, you pick a player on a multi-year deal like Glen. I see Glen as a fill-the-roster type player who doesn’t really bring anything unique to the table. He is the type of player that teams use when they put no effort into having 4 competitive lines. His 17 points and -5 play show me that he isn’t a force in either end and that was confirmed as I watched him last season. He at least is a right-hand shot that is decent on draws so there is a little up-side there.

He’ll be with the big club all year and will likely play (if healthy) over 65 games. I would rather see him play with prospects than guys like Laraque, but if he is on the 4th line (which is a pretty obvious spot for him) then it will be a mish-mash of wingers for him to get used to. That type of change won’t help Glen or the team’s play, but that is the way we have always used our 4th line and I am pretty sure Martin will keep the status quo. Look for him to score about 5 goals (some of which I am sure will be huge) and post up a similar amount of assists. If he can be solid in his own end then it may very well be worth it to have his experience on the team.


Where Metropolit will start 2009-10: Fourth line centre

Where Metropolit will end 2009-10: On another team

Points: 7 G, 12 A, 19 Pts



Travis Moen

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (ANA/SJ)	82	7	9	16	-18	0	2	0.34	0.78	101	6.9	91
07-08 (ANA)	77	3	5	8	-10	0	1	0.15	0.39	98	3.1	81
06-07 (ANA)	82	11	10	21	-4	0	0	0.54	1.04	124	8.9	101

Even-strength profile
	Very close to league worst offensively at even strength Decent defence at even strength Negative balance in his output Awful CORSI: -12.4

Legend


Stats notes

From what I'd read about Moen, and seen in one playoff run, I expected a lot. You know how high expectations can often be dashed? Well Moen dashes away. It's good and bad here:

1) Good defensive numbers
Moen's defensive numbers are pretty good, and would have been very good on the Canadiens. However, he put up those numbers on the Ducks and the Sharks on good lines, so consider the context. When he was off the ice, for example, his teammates had a +/- that was 1.67 better than when he was on.

2) Really bad offensive numbers
Last season, Moen put up nightmarish production for goals and chances for his team when playing at even strength. Given the ice time he was getting, it was a tremendous waste. Think tremendous chorus of boos in Montreal. On the positive side, his terrible stats were still a massive improvement on the year before. I can't imagine what that would have looked like.

3) Low events player
The saving grace for Moen is that when he's on the ice, it will usually be boring. Unlike Ovechkin or Koivu who are on the ice for many goals for and many against, Moen keeps it to a minimum, if he played every hour of every game, they'd all be 2-1 losses with about 45 shots.


Because he offers about as little as you can get from an NHL player going forward, Moen's stats like +/- and Corsi have suffered. However, as mentioned his tendency to be on the ice for long boring periods where nothing happens is something I can stomach on the fourth line (waiting for a better line to come on) periods. And let's face it, here's here because of his physical dimensions rather the dimension he can bring to the play – all pointing to 4th line and nothing more.


Tobalev on Moen
Hands up if you only know him as a Stanley Cup Champion and as member of that shutdown line. I really think Gainey has his hand up right now. This shows (like Dandenault) how being on a winning team will pay out for you for a very long time; no wonder people want to win the Cup so bad. He may be a gritty type of player, that we apparently need, and I’ll even concede that he is better than (Ko)STOPoulos (who isn’t?), but 16 points and a -18 rating from last season isn’t really something we should be excited about. Everyone assumes, again because of the Cup, that he is a premiere defensive forward and a great PK man... I am not so sure. We’ll see as the season goes on what type of player he is, but I for one am not expecting much.

His status, reputation and recent signing make his position one of the most guaranteed this season – 3rd line winger. I am pretty certain, if healthy, he will play 82 games right there on that line. That may be bad news for players like Lapierre who got used to Sergei or Latendresse on his wing. Moen will be lucky to score more than 5 goals, over 20 points would make him look like the signing of the year. I suppose that his real worth will come in the playoffs, so I will wait and see what he brings then. I just hope that he doesn’t become one of the reasons that we don’t get there.


Where Moen will start 2009-10: Trotted out as a star signing

Where Moen will end 2009-10: Regular player with very specific uses

Points: 5 G, 6 A, 11 Pts


Gregory Stewart

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	20	0	1	1	-4	0	0	0.00	0.35	16	0.0	32
07-08 (MTL)	1	0	0	0	E	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	0.0	5

Even-strength profile
	Bottom tier offensive output at even strength Below average chances created at even strength Below average defence at even strength Negative CORSI: -9.3

Legend


Stats notes

As I'm not really getting into non-NHL stats here, there's not very much to go on with Greg. Obviously, his profile is entirely purple and blue (which is bad), and if that were to continue, I think a place would quickly be given to someone else. However, I should note that because of when he played his games (i.e., the dark days), Greg's Corsi of -9.3 is actually better than that of the rest of the team at that time. So while, it all looks pretty terrible, Greg was pretty much just playing to the tempo the team set, as rookies do. Also, Greg looks like he might be able to score the occasional goal by sheer force of effort, so expect that goal #1 to come some time this year.


Tobalev on Stewart

2 years ago Greg got a single game and it came during the Habs best times of the decade. Maybe that is the reason we all loved this kid so much, maybe anything Habs at that moment seemed right. Fast-forward to last season and things changed. When you look at Stewart over 20 games it becomes quite different than looking at him for one. Over those 20 games I realized what type of player we had on our hands; I was happy, no longer ecstatic, but happy nonetheless. He did manage 17 points (7-10) in Hamilton last year, but was unable to bring any offence to the big-show.; in all he managed just 1 assist and no goals. Last season, however, he made it known, that he would compete for a 4th line spot (for years to come), but that his potential stopped there.

All of that said we need 4th liners and to me Stewart is a better option than either Laraque or Metropolit. In fact, I would play Greg in MTL all season and would likely give him 50-70 games. I predict Gainey and Martin will see it the same way and, that Greg’ll see some serious time with Moen and Metropolit. At this point I expect a goal, or two, and a whole lot of energy. For those poolers out there don’t count on more than 5 points as this is one player who will have a hard time getting close to the net. If there if one area that I would like to see him excel at this season (and the whole 4th line for that matter) it is his play in our end. A positive +/- for Gregory would, in my eyes, make his season a success.


Where Stewart will start 2009-10: The pressbox

Where Stewart will end 2009-10: Replacing the injured pacifist

Points: 2 G, 5 A, 7 Pts


As a line

Line #4	Effect O/D
C – Glen Metropolit		Made most linemates worse offensively Helped some linemates be better defensively Played best overall with Scottie Upshall last season
RW – Travis Moen		Hampered offensive play of his linemates Made defensive forwards worse defensive players
LW – Gregory Stewart		Made most linemates worse offensively Helped some defensive games Played best with Dandenault last season

It's the nature of fourth lines, I think, that they're less exciting than other lines. I think this is only more pronounced when you are tlaking about a middle of the pack team with lots of salary paid to higher end players – by the time you get down here, you take what you can get.

So Metroploit or Chipchura? Well on numbers alone it's Glen, so as long as he's around (and not taken off waivers), he's in. Next, I insert Moen – partly because of the fact he was signed (so he'll play), but also because of the alternatives. Finally, I prefer Greg Stewart on a line with Metropolit and Moen to either Pacioretty or Chipchura again. And, I will always prefer Gregory Stewart to Georges Laraque as someone to keep the other team in line, simply because he does it better – fighting those who have offended, bothering those who affect the game.

That's our team up front.



Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Georges LaraqueThe Summer Swindle

Anyone who understands French should read this article: "L'Arnaaue Laraque". It's the usual interesting look from Fred and his friends at En Route Pour La Coupe


The gist of the article for all of you is that Laraque is turning out, thus far, to be a pretty useless component of the Canadiens. The title roughly translated means "The Laraque swindle" and is a very nice play on words, if I do say so myself. The article mirrors my own thoughts so well, I don't need to rewrite it – I'll just highlight and comment:

The first point Fred makes is that Laraque was supposedly brought here to strike fear into the hearts of opponents. To make sure that our skilled players could get on with it without being intimidated. He quite rightly points out that this has not been the case at all. Kostitsyn was pounded into the boards despite Georges playing, Price was butt-ended and Lapierre was head-hunted.

So, the verdict on intimidation: None.

The second point he rightly makes is that after the fact someone as big and rough as Laraque is supposedly there to make people pay. Though I don't agree with the whole code thing, the fact is the current NHL is run this way – that's why we have Georges. But where has Georges been after these hits Fred asks? The answer: nowhere to be seen.

So the verdict on sending a message after the fact: Hopeless.

Fred in speaking to his Oiler fan buddies heard that Laraque's proclamation were that he would only fight heavyweights. Laraque doesn't fight just anyone. Not Ruutu, not Sauer, not Grabovski, not Mike Richards. He'll fight Boogaard maybe, Shelley.

Finalement, tout ce que Laraque veut, c'est donner son show de boxe. Il est pas là pour défendre personne, car ce ne sont habituellement pas les toughs des autres équipes qui écoeurent les joueurs de la Flanelle.

Finally, all Laraque wants is to be able to put on a boxing show. He's not there to defend anyone, because it's not usually the goons from opposing teams that get in the faces of the Habs players.

Ooh, that's close to the mark, Fred. As is his stinging conclusion:

On ne peut pas se fier sur lui pour défendre ses coéquipiers.
On ne peut pas penser qu'il donnera de percutantes mises-en-échec (il est trop lent).
Il ne peut pas nous aider grandement avec ses habiletés de hockeyeur.
À quoi sert-il donc?

I concur – A player that can't play, can't hit, won't stand up for teammates unless it's organised the day before, doesn't scare anyone – what is he here for?

Just last night, there was a comical endorsement of this whole affair. Milan Lucic was being his usual smirk-faced self. Brunet got all hot when Laraque brushed up against him – highlighting it on the broadcast (I can't say I was very impressed myself). Later in the game, Lucic has been taking liberties and a Hab wants to fight him. In goes Mike Komisarek.

Add it all up, and I calculate that Laraque is a useless piece of the Canadiens. Nevermind that there are no goons on 50% of NHL teams now. It's totally ridiculous. We've been swindled. Plain and simple.

Bring up Greg Stewart!

Agenda Week: Montreal Canadiens January 29 to February 6

The weeks that were
Everyone has an agenda. That's what this week has made abundantly clear to me.

Take Eklund, his agenda is to get traffic to his website and to make money. As such, he pretends that trades are constantly being discussed (every day of the year) for every NHL team. He claims that teams successful or not will all make moves, and that they will all be exciting. I'm sure it would be nice for his site if one trade did actually happen at some point. In fact, what he could really use is one of the big teams to get involved, or big players. Haven't you heard? Hossa is coming to Montreal.


Then there's the guy at RDS (or Canadian Press) who wants the Habs to get a goon. I saw the pushing around, but I'd hardly say that was the reason the Canadiens lost. You can't get a three goal lead in the first place if you're intimidated, and losing it has much more to do with mental laziness than missing a guy who play 5:40 every game. Relics like this guy, Don Cherry and former fighters turned presenters will harp on about this, all the while ignoring the fact we actually beat the tougher teams and have the majority of our trouble against skilled teams.

We can't forget the Price agenda in this organisation. How Price can get a start immediately after his call-up, regardless of the opponent, is a baffling. It may be the final slap in the face to Jaroslav Halak, which may or may not have been part of the agenda in the first place. As I said before, the most important thing to watch here is how Halak reacts. This is important in making sure he is a prospect belonging to the Habs.

Finally, and perhaps most distressingly for me is the marginalisation of Saku Koivu. While the language issue failed to get him out of the way, his detractors have now turned his own willingness to help the team against him. I have been told, directly and indirectly that Saku Koivu has lost it, that he is becoming no more than a third line centre and that he has a discipline problem. I recognise that a penalty at the end of the game is a bad thing, but it's hardly a discipline problem.

As for his statistics and play this year, you only have to look at the game reports gone by to know he's played a bigger part than the stats show. Most nights he has been the best centre on the team. And, it should be hard to overlook that he has been key in keeping a top PP in this league and is the captain of the team with the second most points in the conference. As a player who has been (quite frankly) burdened with a large number of wingers, he has never complained publicly. All the while, he gets to watch the "top" line stay together for 30+ games. He won't care of course, because team success is all he cares about.

I don't really like agendas, but of course I must have one too.

My primary agenda is to keep the discussion about the Habs in some balance, as well as provide a bit of a different analysis of the games played (courtesy of Tobalev). If I have a goal in mind, it's the playoffs, it's 96 points, and eventually it's the Cup. Consequently, more points on the line tonight and some confidence on offer on the road to 96 points and playoff success.

As long as the players have the points/playoff goal at the top of their agenda, then we'll all be a little happier come April time, I think (regardless of how many trades, Price starts or Koivu goals transpire in the meantime).








Quote of the weeks
On Prairie hockey fans (Habs post-game show):

"Next caller is Bill from Saskatchewan, the biggest Habs fan in the prairies..."

(I wonder if Bill tapes games, writes 1000-word game reports for every game and gets it all out before the fans wake up the next day...)



Getting close to the trade deadline...

... what might Rejean Houle do?

Trade Huet after his agent turns down the first offer. couldn't lose a UFA for nothing (Better a San Jose second rounder than your captain for 20 games).



... what might Sam Pollock do?

Sit down personally with Cristobal Huet about a long-term future with the club, including at least 2 more years of playing and a guarantee of a job once his playing days are done.




The week upcoming

It's a short week when you start it on Thursday. Had I done this on time, I think I would have been hesitant to declare victory over the Sens. I knew they were riper for the picking that at any time in recent memory for us, but they're still the Sens. Anyway, we got the two points, so another 2 points this week and it'll look like a success looking back...


Thursday night: Toronto Maple Leafs at the Bell Centre.

Habs fans may have to come down from the clouds for a few minutes and understand that a Leafs game is a Leafs game is a Leafs game. Position in the standings (for either team) is irrelevant. That being said, the Habs always have a chance to win these games. If they can find the same effort they've had for the New Jersey, first Washington, islanders and beginning of Rangers and Ottawa games, I like the chances of the 4 points being wrapped up for the week by tonight.

Leafs to watch: Mats Sundin and Robbie Earl – it'd be rare for me to omit Sundin from this space, as he is truly world class in addition to be a Habs killer; Robbie Earl should give us an idea why people are calling the Leafs cupboard bare of prospects. As a top prospect for them, it should be interesting to see him beside Andrei Kostitsyn.

In a way, I am more interested to see how the Leafs play after this game, because after a long stretch of "insignificant" games, this one risks being the wake up call they've been waiting for.


Saturday night: Ottawa Senators at Scotiabank Place.

You know how the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads is 0.5, but getting two heads in a row is 0.25? If only beating the Sens twice in a row were so easy. This is more like trying to get green twice in a row on the roulette table. Not impossible, but unlikely. The good news, however, is that the table is stilltipped a bit in our favour (at least relative to normal circumstances). A win from this wouldbe very very impressive. A point would be great as well.

Sens to watch: Daniel Alfredsson and Dany Heatley – both big boys are possibilities to start on Saturday. At the very least, it will be interesting to see how they return. Hopefully for us, the rust may take more than a few shifts to shake off.





Overheard on the Habswagon:

"I've always loved Kovy. It's his special determination, the skills he brings every night. You know he's the reason the Canadiens powerplay is so good, right? I never liked Souray anyway."




[The subjective look at the week that was and the week ahead in Montreal Canadiens Week is supplemented by the objective analysis following every fifth game]