Latendresse For Pouliot Meeting The New Hab

In a move that flies completely in the face of those who advocate deadline only trading, Bob Gainey has moved Guillaume Latendresse for Benoit Pouliot of the Minnesota Wild. Arpon Basu wonders whether it's a trade of untapped (or indeed non-existent) potential here...


While he's right and many may question the professional scouts read on the tentative NHL beginnings of Benoit Pouliot, Guillaume Latendresse's time in Montreal was beginning to try on the young man. Reports mere minutes after his trade talk of his relief to be dealt away from the furnace of Montreal hockey.

It's a hard trade to take for the biggest believers in Latendresse, but it would be hard even for them to deny what has become clear – that despite his talent, he will probably never acquire a taste for hanging out in front of the net, despite mentioning Tomas Holmstrom in every other interview. Seeing as he's opting not to go the route of power forward, it seems Gainey and the management have opted to put the stakes of just under a million on a player with a different complement of talents, and just about as much size. One of those talents does happen to be skating – which may just fit in better with a team that had to slow down for Gui at times.

Benoit Pouliot himself is a Franco-Canadian, and speaks French. So although the omission of Latendresse takes the number of Quebecers to the equal season low of three, it maintains the RDS correspondents at an equilibrium.

He was once judged to be a massive talent and in the Crosby draft was even considered to be the next man in the pecking order. Central scouting had him as the #2 consensus pick, scouts compared him to Lecavalier. Since that time, his progress has been rocky – rockier, it must be said than Latendresse's. However, Pouliot has been groomed the traditional way, and for the most part in a defensive system – two things that may help him to adjust better to life under Jacques Martin than Guillaume. If you want a taste of speculative good news, it is that his former coach (and hockey guru) Jacques Lemaire was supposedly plugging for the kid in Jersey as recently as last Tuesday, so take that for what it's worth. Thanks to Saskhab for pointing out my frantic misread of a headline – to make up for it, some speculation that actually did take place (Habs last year) and whatever he says today on his blog, Mirtle liked Pouliot second best in July 2005 – better than Ryan, Johnson, and Brule.

At the junior level, he was once an unknown who became a rookie of the year in the OHL (and the CHL!), and then a 4th overall pick. His biggest achievement post-draft to date has been a gold at the World Junior champs with 5 assists in 6 games – team that Latendresse also made (but didn't really play for) and Chipchura captained. Following that, another good year in junior with improved totals and then on to the AHL.

While he has certainly not set the world alight in the AHL, he has nonetheless put up 38 goals and 84 points in 143 games. Again, the Houston Aeros have been a mirror of their parent Wild club, stressing defence over all else, so his points may sell him short. The fact he made a prolonged playoff run last year may also have given him some experience of value in his apprenticeship, though now it feels like we're clutching at straws.

At the NHL level, it's also been a trial. When you consider Guillaume's 50-odd goals in the big leagues, it seems like a big step down to Pouliot's nine. And another big leap to call that potential equal to, or superior to, that of Guillaume Latendresse. However, his route to the NHL has been so divergent from Lats'. Never has he enjoyed the extended wing time with Saku Koivu or even Robert Lang that Guillaume did. Nor has he been reserved preferential treatment for development opportunities. That is until this season.

I could go on, but what you will all want to read on the new guy has already been written. Go fill your boots with: "The Ballad of Benoit Pouliot", an article that relays the Minnesota Wild fan's thoughts on our new ward very nicely.


Who wins the trade?

Well, some text from the article on Pouliot could have been lifted straight form the Guillaume Latendresse archives:

"With the regime change in Minnesota, many were expecting Pouliot to fall by the wayside. Certainly there would have been enough reason to. But Chuck Fletcher decided to give the youngster another shot. Pouliot came into camp this season ready to prove himself and, again, he has certainly shown flashes of what he is capable of."

However, never would anyone attribute the following to Big Gui:

"But what stood out most to me, was that he skated hard without actually looking like he skated hard. It dawned on me that maybe this is one of the reasons that he has been given the label of lazy. Because, quite simply, while everyone looks like they’re skating on the ice, he looks like he’s skating above it."

There's optimism in knowing that a player coming to play a game where skating is half the battle doesn't need summer courses to keep up with the slower half of his peers. There's optimism knowing that a broken player weighed down by unreasonable expectation will be replaced by one with expectations of his own. There's optimism in knowing that only 4 years ago about 30 men trained to evaluate players said the new guy was a better bet than the outgoing. If for no other reason than those, I find positive thoughts in this trade.

Learning To Live Without Markov

As the game unfolded the other night against Tampa, it marked the 16th game of the season that we had begun without our all-star Andrei Markov. It may not sound like much, but it's the first time since Andrei made the NHL grade that he has missed more than 15 games in a single season.

In the past sometimes, it seemed like an injury to Markov was a one-way ticket to losing streak. However, this time around, the Canadiens have done an OK job of battling for points and scrounging some wins. As we descend into the next 30 games without Andrei, I thought I'd take a glance at some of the stats with and without him manning the back line.


Winning and losing

It's sometimes hard to test the value of any given player, because the experiment consists of so many variables. Even with a mere 24 game sample from the regular season and a lone playoff series, I don't think we'd be reaching a false conclusion if we suggested the Canadiens are a much worse outfit without Andrei Markov. Really the stats speak for themselves:

24 games, 5 wins, 19 losses, 13 points. It's not flattering for the rest of the guys is it? Certainly when you compare that record to the record with him in the lineup over the same period (168-107-30 for 366 points).

If you pro-rate the stats to an 82-game schedule the Habs from 2005-09 without Markov would have been a pitiful 44 point outfit (17-55-10) – not seen since the days of expansion newbies and Pittsburgh dogging it. With him in the lineup, their pro-rated points total would be a solid 96-point group (45-29-6).

But the impact goes well beyond the wins and losses. As you can see from the limited sample, what has tended to happen when Markov has been missing has shown his talent at both ends of the ice. In the 24 previous games, goals for dropped by one full goal per 60 minutes, while goals against rose by an equally remarkable 0.7 per game.


Special teams

Being that Markov is an all-star who perennially flirts with the scoring lead among defenceman, it's perhaps not surprising to see a drop in PP efficiency wen he's not around to distribute. But take a look at the PK in his absence – a reminder of his second personality:

With the best overall PP in both 2006-07 and 2007-08, and a pretty decent scoring clip before and after, it's pretty safe to say that Markov is one of the premier QBs of the circuit. In fact, you get 5 PPs with Markov in a game, you'd be disappointed not to score a goal.

The Canadiens, however, have been blessed with some insulation for Markov on the PP at times – Souray and Streit, for example in 2006-07 – so his absence has cost but not too too drastically. Glance at the PK situation without Markov, though, and get an idea of what he means at the defensive end. Whether it be quick movement and anticipation, or using his passing skills to find the way out of the zone, his skills on the PK have been missed to the tune of nearly 12.5%. If you translate that to a whole season – with about 360 penalties – you're talking about 45 goals.

I suppose a forward moving to the point is much less of a downgrade than having a 5th defender playing with regularity on a penalty kill.


2009-10

This season, Markov was lost to serious injury a mere 50 minutes in. Given our understanding of the previous 24 games without him, there was understandable gloom at the time. I certainly felt some major doubts.

If you look across the stats, you can see that the PP is suffering as much if not more than it has ever done, but that goalscoring is holding truer. You can see that PK is sub-standard, but still within a few goals of the Markov standard and the overall goals against have been holding closer as well. You can fret about each of those, especially compared to league averages. Nonetheless, here we stand 17 games in, and 6 weeks closer to February, with 16 points from 17 games. Not great, perhaps, but a minor miracle given the precedent.

I think it speaks a little bit to some of the moves that were made over the summer (many of which have received a proper thrashing from fans), specifically:

1) Gionta
He's been a goalscorer from unconventional plays which has helped and a solid contributor up front. What's more, he's been able to tip the ice in the Habs favour by a large margin thus far.

2) Spacek
I said I liked the signing at the time, but I didn't really know what to expect. Well, he's no Markov on the PP (not even close), but he eats minutes and has been on the ice for 22 more chances at even strength than he has allowed, and 41 overall.

3) Letting Bouillon go
A hard move to put through given his popularity and his familiarity with the RDS crew, but one that needed to be made. Last season he was on the ice for a GA every 20 minutes he played. Had he been under contract as a #6 this year, that'd be a goal a game. I don't want to disparage a player I loved, but I think his last legs were correctly recognised.


As I said, there weren't miracles here, just quiet steps in the general direction. Could a team really be as bad as the Habs have been without Markov in the past over a sustained period? Hard to say. I don't think after the 0-7-1 end to last season, anyone would have asked to put it to the test.

I think if anything good is to come from this injury to Andrei it will be the shedding of an over-reliance on a single player in all aspects of play. Perhaps when he comes back he can be introduced gradually, rather than straight into 30 minutes a night.


Who misses Markov most?

Finally, I wanted to note that though we all miss Markov, none might miss him more than Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak. If only for his poise on the PK alone, Carey might have added 100 points to his sub-standard PK save rating, and he and Halak might have been able to count on zone clearances actually happening.