Just today, there were a couple of good articles on the Habs. One looked back at the Corsi-related stats for the Habs over the 2010-11 season, the other anticipated 10 possible surprises for the upcoming season. Read both. They’re good summer reading for hockey fans.
Both articles, whether intentionally or not, ignored/slighted Andrei Kostitsyn.
In the first, the author looked at Andrei stats and concluded that he was an adequate (“fairly solid” actually) top 6 forward. Nothing wrong with that on its own.
The second article is only fun speculation, I’m aware. Yet in keeping with popular trends, the surprises weighed heavily on Lars Eller and Max Pacioretty, even Erik Cole. In fact, the article mentions every top forward on the team except for Andrei Kostitsyn. Pacioretty is the top potential surprise, Eller #3, Gomez is in there, and the others could all benefit from Cole.
I don’t wish to pick on articles that took summer air and made it into readable articles on the Habs, but I use them to introduce what I have been noticing as a trend among summer Habs fans.
When it comes to scoring lines and Andrei Kostitsyn, it appears that the majority are simply brushing him aside, some even actively writing him off.
How many times have I read that Pacioretty will benefit from Cole on his line? Or that Eller will be ready to step in for Gomez? How many times have I seen comment on the soon-to-be miraculous influence that 3-time 20-, 1-time 30-goalscorer Erik Cole would have on this team? And how many times have we heard that Andrei might not be a complete write-off because he had some late season chemistry with Lars Eller?
In a summer of gushing positivity, the stream has been diverted around the Belarussian.
I am here to defend Andrei’s case (yet again), because I just don’t think it’s time to write this guy completely out of the plans yet. By all means take the evidence and arguments presented elsewhere into your consideration. But to fill in the information gap, please also consider this:
1) Same pace as Erik Cole over the last 4 years
Andrei Kostitsyn (2007-2011): 292 GP, 84 G, 88 A, 172 Pts (0.29 G/G, 0.30 A/G, 0.59 Pts/G)
Erik Cole (2007-2011): 275 GP, 77 G, 84 A, 161 Pts (0.28 G/G, 0.31 A/G, 0.59 Pts/G)
Both players have had the benefit of some great scoring linemates (Kovalev, Staal) and both have had moments on less productive units. Still, at the end of the day, they both produced at an uncannily similar rate. These guys are even the same weight.
2) Even strength scoring strength
15 goals, 13 A1, 6 A2 for 34 points at even strength.
It doesn’t sound that impressive, but considering that puts him 3rd in goals, 1st in assists and 2nd in points on the team, it’s not shabby. Even despite Pacioretty’s streaky greatness, Andrei actually rivaled him at ES with 1.85 vs. 1.93 Pts/60 and 0.82 vs. 0.84 G/60. He was also a fair shade better than Cammalleri, Eller and (of course) Gomez in this regard.
3) Passing to Plekanec
We dwell on goals sometimes if we label someone a goalscorer, and that’s fair. But if we want one of our centres to continue being a 20-30 goal threat, someone has to do the set-up work. Now Cammalleri is a fine and underrated passer, but so is Andrei.
Because 17 of Andrei’s 25 assists were first assists, he ended up creating more goals than one would expect from a 45 point getter. His 0.981 goals created/60 was second on the team to only Pacioretty, and at even strength, he outdistanced everyone with 0.923 GC/60.
4) Important goals
I addressed this before (The Ideal 20 Goalscorer), but it’s worth reiterating. A large percentage of Andrei’s goals were important goals: 6 GWG, 2 GTG and 3 first goals. Totals that put him in the top 3 on the team in each category (first in GW, tied with Gionta).
5) Chances generated
In the age of advanced stats, we have been lulled into comparing elements like Corsi and Team chances for and against as readings for players. There is nothing wrong with this, but we must remember that Corsi and chance differentials were built as extra tools to be taken into account with all the other measures, not as exclusive “be-all, end-all” metrics.
So it’s worth throwing in another advanced stat for Andrei here. Chances on net released from his stick. I believe there is something to be said for getting into position and actually being able to direct what Olivier deems to be a chance against a goalie.
Andrei was 3rd on the team in absolute chances by my count and 2nd in chances per 60 minutes behind Brian Gionta (7.94 Ch/60 vs. 7.69 Ch/60).
Based on these things, and a history of watching this player, I’m suggesting it’s far too early to write Andrei Kostitsyn out of the Canadiens plans for the roster, the top two lines or indeed the top line.
Cole is an interesting addition and Pacioretty and Eller gave us all something to be optimistic about at times last season, but all the while Andrei was there – scoring 20 goals and providing an ES threat even in what people called an off season.
I think this is a positive. If Cole plays as well as he can and still only cracks the third line, he will no doubt still be an upgrade on Moen or Darche for all the reasons that have been expounded over the past two weeks. If Pacioretty needs more time to grow and has to eat his pride a bit while playing in the bottom six, he too will still be an improvement on the options that were available last season.
Of course, it could be that it will be Kostitsyn patrolling the third wave with Eller or Gomez. It’s just me and some of the evidence don’t see things turning out that way.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Waiting On Breakout Seasons
The Canadiens go into the season with a pretty good group of 6 defencemen and top 6 forwards. Yet with Erik Cole (and hopefully Andrei Markov) replacing James Wisniewski and Benoit Pouliot, the question of goalscoring still looms heavy.
Optimists will tell us that the progression of Pacioretty, Eller, Desharnais and others will more than make up for this concern.
Oh, optimism. I came across this article this morning about some Philly fans who are likely more optimistic than those projecting our first rounders (Mike Testwuide? He was tried out by the Habs years ago and underwhelmed...). But the points made still carry a lot of relevance for Habs fans. Another good read.
Optimists will tell us that the progression of Pacioretty, Eller, Desharnais and others will more than make up for this concern.
Oh, optimism. I came across this article this morning about some Philly fans who are likely more optimistic than those projecting our first rounders (Mike Testwuide? He was tried out by the Habs years ago and underwhelmed...). But the points made still carry a lot of relevance for Habs fans. Another good read.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Will Travis Moen's Value Ever be Higher?
A twist, and suddenly teams may look and Travis Moen and say - hey, he's just what we need. Maybe even teams that have watched him labour on the first/second line.
The focus has naturally turned to Gomez and Spacek on this salary floor story, but it would be irresponsible to leave out Moen, who at his current salary is also a bit of a waste of money (the fighter that can't fight, the big guy who doesn't check, etc, etc.)
I'd suggest that even the mismanaged franchises among those listed in this article know enough to steer clear of G-Love, and probably Spacek too. But for a cool $1.5 million of salary floor relief, the fully playable/moveable/benchable Moen is salary floor magic.
(Note: I like Moen. It's nothing personal, but one has to admit that if a player can provide the same play for league minimum, $1 million is there for the taking. Anyway, I just think you should all check out the article...)
The focus has naturally turned to Gomez and Spacek on this salary floor story, but it would be irresponsible to leave out Moen, who at his current salary is also a bit of a waste of money (the fighter that can't fight, the big guy who doesn't check, etc, etc.)
I'd suggest that even the mismanaged franchises among those listed in this article know enough to steer clear of G-Love, and probably Spacek too. But for a cool $1.5 million of salary floor relief, the fully playable/moveable/benchable Moen is salary floor magic.
(Note: I like Moen. It's nothing personal, but one has to admit that if a player can provide the same play for league minimum, $1 million is there for the taking. Anyway, I just think you should all check out the article...)
Monday, July 04, 2011
Cole Shoulders High Expectations in Montreal
Two somewhat paranormal coincidences to report, one being my comment on Topham's Thursday post about my "dream signing" being Erik Cole; and him being signed hours later. The second is that I apparently agree with Jack Todd, for once. Eerie.
So why Erik Cole?
In my opinion, the biggest need for the Habs up front this off-season was clear: a proven top-6 winger with size. We've all talked before on many occasions about the need for a power forward, preferably a good winger to play with the albatross that is Scott Gomez. Someone who can battle in front of the net, and not have Andrew Leighton simply look over their heads if they set a screen. Someone who can score at least 20 goals a season; the more, the better. Having another RH shot among the forwards would also be a big plus, as only Gionta and Ryan White currently qualify.
Now, we knew we were fooling ourselves if we even dared think about Jaromir Jagr or Brad Richards; and wonder idly if there was ever any talk from head office to, say, the Sharks about Setoguchi or Pavelski when they were moved. The UFA pool was fairly shallow this year, so Montreal didn't have a lot of great choices. Once Philly wrapped up RFA Claude Giroux, the market consisted basically of Cole, Michael Ryder, and Jamie Langenbrunner.
Michael Ryder
We've been here before. Ryder was a Calder-nominated rookie for us back in 2003-04, scoring 25 goals and 38 assists. He had 2 straight 30-goal campaigns after the lockout, but a sub-par 2007-08 season (likely due to personal issues related to his brother) saw him benched by Carbonneau and left to free agency. He rebounded with Boston, scoring 27 goals and over 50 points again, but since has trailed off to 33 points last season and 41 this year despite around 15 minutes of ice-time. He's a proven scorer, and at 6' and 192 lbs is large for a Habs forward. Somehow I don't know that he'd welcome an offer from Montreal, nor that Montreal fans would be happy to have him back; and there's no guarantee he'll ever return to his 30-goal form. Dallas will pay him $3.5M per year for the next two seasons finding out.
Jamie Langenbrunner
The oldest of the trio at 35, Langenbrunner is a proven 2-way forward that's won two Cups (one with Dallas in 1999, and one with New Jersey in 2003). He fit in well with New Jersey's conservative style of play and Jacques Martin would probably love him for it. He's scored 20+ goals 4 times in 16 NHL seasons and twice came within 2 goals of the mark; and has 6 seasons with 50+ points. He's got good size at 6'1" and 205 lbs. Given that he's still unsigned, I'm left wondering why - he would have likely been a decent addition to many squads and his last contract was only worth $2.8M/yr. I am guessing Pierre Gauthier talked to him, but the fact he's still unsigned makes me think there's something a little fishy.
Erik Cole
At 32 years old and beginning his 10th NHL season, Cole has had his problems with injuries with an astonishing 86 games missed since the lockout. However, he's managed to clear 50 points 4 times in that span, and score 20+ three times (with another 18-goal season). However, he doesn't seem to play well with people who aren't Hurricanes: he had a pretty disastrous 27 points in 63 games with the Oilers in 2008-09 before returning to Carolina to put up 15 points in a mere 17 games. Still, he can be productive while playing tough minutes against hard opposition, and was one of only 5 players to score over 25 goals and deliver over 200 hits last season.
I reasoned that we need a big, RH winger that can hit and score. To me, Cole was the best choice. I think he's the biggest offensive threat of the three, he uses his size and at 6'2" and 205 lbs he's far from small. If he can stay healthy, and he did play 82 games last year, I don't think it's unreasonable to think he can put away another 25 goals and help Gomez pull his numbers up to reasonable levels - but I'm expecting a fair amount of line-juggling from Jacques Martin early on and the lines might not be what we're expecting. I was hoping to sign him for a little less than $4.5M for 2-3 years, but he'll be 37 at the contract's end and not exactly ancient. The reality is that we have to pay a premium to get players from the US that would rather not pay Canadian and Quebec taxes.
Maybe less like a "dream signing," and more like a realistic one. I guess I don't dream very big. But if Cole stays healthy, I think he can be the physical 25-goal scorer we could use so badly; and it least it's a dream that has a chance of coming true.
Let us know in the comments who I missed, and who you would have rather seen putting on the Bleu-Blanc-Rouge this past weekend.
So why Erik Cole?
In my opinion, the biggest need for the Habs up front this off-season was clear: a proven top-6 winger with size. We've all talked before on many occasions about the need for a power forward, preferably a good winger to play with the albatross that is Scott Gomez. Someone who can battle in front of the net, and not have Andrew Leighton simply look over their heads if they set a screen. Someone who can score at least 20 goals a season; the more, the better. Having another RH shot among the forwards would also be a big plus, as only Gionta and Ryan White currently qualify.
Now, we knew we were fooling ourselves if we even dared think about Jaromir Jagr or Brad Richards; and wonder idly if there was ever any talk from head office to, say, the Sharks about Setoguchi or Pavelski when they were moved. The UFA pool was fairly shallow this year, so Montreal didn't have a lot of great choices. Once Philly wrapped up RFA Claude Giroux, the market consisted basically of Cole, Michael Ryder, and Jamie Langenbrunner.
Michael Ryder
We've been here before. Ryder was a Calder-nominated rookie for us back in 2003-04, scoring 25 goals and 38 assists. He had 2 straight 30-goal campaigns after the lockout, but a sub-par 2007-08 season (likely due to personal issues related to his brother) saw him benched by Carbonneau and left to free agency. He rebounded with Boston, scoring 27 goals and over 50 points again, but since has trailed off to 33 points last season and 41 this year despite around 15 minutes of ice-time. He's a proven scorer, and at 6' and 192 lbs is large for a Habs forward. Somehow I don't know that he'd welcome an offer from Montreal, nor that Montreal fans would be happy to have him back; and there's no guarantee he'll ever return to his 30-goal form. Dallas will pay him $3.5M per year for the next two seasons finding out.
Jamie Langenbrunner
The oldest of the trio at 35, Langenbrunner is a proven 2-way forward that's won two Cups (one with Dallas in 1999, and one with New Jersey in 2003). He fit in well with New Jersey's conservative style of play and Jacques Martin would probably love him for it. He's scored 20+ goals 4 times in 16 NHL seasons and twice came within 2 goals of the mark; and has 6 seasons with 50+ points. He's got good size at 6'1" and 205 lbs. Given that he's still unsigned, I'm left wondering why - he would have likely been a decent addition to many squads and his last contract was only worth $2.8M/yr. I am guessing Pierre Gauthier talked to him, but the fact he's still unsigned makes me think there's something a little fishy.
Erik Cole
At 32 years old and beginning his 10th NHL season, Cole has had his problems with injuries with an astonishing 86 games missed since the lockout. However, he's managed to clear 50 points 4 times in that span, and score 20+ three times (with another 18-goal season). However, he doesn't seem to play well with people who aren't Hurricanes: he had a pretty disastrous 27 points in 63 games with the Oilers in 2008-09 before returning to Carolina to put up 15 points in a mere 17 games. Still, he can be productive while playing tough minutes against hard opposition, and was one of only 5 players to score over 25 goals and deliver over 200 hits last season.
I reasoned that we need a big, RH winger that can hit and score. To me, Cole was the best choice. I think he's the biggest offensive threat of the three, he uses his size and at 6'2" and 205 lbs he's far from small. If he can stay healthy, and he did play 82 games last year, I don't think it's unreasonable to think he can put away another 25 goals and help Gomez pull his numbers up to reasonable levels - but I'm expecting a fair amount of line-juggling from Jacques Martin early on and the lines might not be what we're expecting. I was hoping to sign him for a little less than $4.5M for 2-3 years, but he'll be 37 at the contract's end and not exactly ancient. The reality is that we have to pay a premium to get players from the US that would rather not pay Canadian and Quebec taxes.
Maybe less like a "dream signing," and more like a realistic one. I guess I don't dream very big. But if Cole stays healthy, I think he can be the physical 25-goal scorer we could use so badly; and it least it's a dream that has a chance of coming true.
Let us know in the comments who I missed, and who you would have rather seen putting on the Bleu-Blanc-Rouge this past weekend.
The Reshuffle
Habs And Rivals After Busy Free Agency Period
In: Erik Cole, Peter Budaj
Out: James Wisnieski, Roman Hamrlik, Benoit Pouliot, Alex Auld
On the surface, this is Cole for Pouliot + cash and Budaj for Auld. Both moves are fine with me, even if I still think Pouliot has a special talent that I wish was a few more divisions away.
On the surface, it also looks like the Habs have created a hole on defence.
Of course they have (Hamrlik and Wisniewski were #1 and #2 at times last season), but the additions don't account for Andrei Markov who was essentially "not there" last year and that of Alexei Emelin.
Markov will easily plug the gap left by the Wizz (who did a bang up job of trying to fill Markov's position in his absence). Hamrlik, however, will be missed. Weber and Emelin are not at Roman's level yet, not even as a committee, so this is a subtraction as it stands.
Overall then, Montreal has taken a small step back so far on the backline, and taken a decent step forward up front. Overall, they look a slightly better team. Compared to themselves.
But once again, it's important not to take this situation in isolation. Just because Montreal adds 8 goals at forward doesn't mean a spot in the standings. That can't be determined without looking at the rivals and how they performed.
The teams ahead of the Habs
Last year, 5 teams beat the Habs by a fair margin in the East. Washington, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Boston and Tampa Bay. All 5 teams were active in the past few weeks and will likely keep tweaking.
The Washington Capitals, winners of the East last season may be the most improved of all. The Caps overpaid to improve their forward depth (Brouwer, Ward), but it is still improved. On top of that, they added Hamrlik and upgraded on Semyon Varlamov by stealing Tomas Vokoun from the rest of the league. Add to this the fact that Washington can claim their own "Gomezes" (players who can't go anywhere but up) with Ovechkin, Green and Backstrom coming off quiet years.
In my opinion, Washington won't be caught or overtaken by the Habs with the moves and rosters as they stand.
In: Brouwer, Joel Ward, Hamrlik, Vokoun, Potulny, Halpern
Out: Varlamov, Boyd Gordon, Andrew Gordon, Sturm, Bradley
Philadelphia made waves early with their shock trades of Carter and Richards, but true to form added the salary right back in the form of Bryzgalov and Jagr.
The biggest difference in Philadelphia should be Bryzgalov, who, while overpaid, is a vast improvement over Leighton and Boucher. It's hard to know how much Philly gave up at the front through Richards, Carter and later Leino; but Voracek, Jagr and co. might lighten the blow at least a bit.
Overall, I still feel schizo Holmgren downgraded his team by going old and young at the same time. But the downgrade isn't to the point where I feel Philly will struggle to make the playoffs.
In: Bryzgalov, Voracek, Simonds, Schenn, Lilja, Talbot, Jagr
Out: Carter, Richards, Powe, Boucher, Leino, Carcillo, O'Donnell
Pittsburgh have been quieter till now. Happy it seems to wait the return of their cavalry. If people in Montreal are excited about having Markov back and Gomez having nowhere to go but up, imagine the Pens fans delight at the thought of adding to last season's plucky team through Crosby and Malkin.
Pittsburgh also quietly switched Talbot and Rupp for Steve Sullivan, who when healthy should find a place beside one of the big two.
It's perhaps not headline stuff, but the returning wounded improve Pittsburgh far beyond anything Montreal could have hoped to do anyway. This team will once again challenge for the top and the Cup barring injuries again.
In: Sullivan, Valabik
Out: Talbot, Rupp
Chiarelli must have had his day with the Stanley Cup on Friday because he did very little indeed. It says he lost Valabik, but he wasn't a big league Bruins. Essentially the balance was Ryder for Pouliot. Payment aside, this is a downgrade. While both have been Montreal playoff benchees, Ryder at least thrives with Julien. Pouliot may or may not.
Boston's minor downgrade may be enough for Montreal to challenge. Remember after all, that Boston only pipped the Habs at the end thanks to a certain few head-to-head encounters where focus was lost.
In: Pouliot
Out: Ryder, Valabik
In his second season, Stevie Y is slower out the gates. He changed his back-up goalie (Garon for Smith) and added some depth D, but lost Bergenheim and Gagne and may have to fight off offers for Stamkos.
Tampa improved by leaps and bounds last season and will still be fueled forward by Stamkos and Hedman, but questions about how much longer Roloson can perform, not to mention how much further Lecavalier will slide, point to some vulnerabilities there for rival Eastern clubs.
I think on balance Tampa will hold their position, at least for another season. It wouldn't be all that surprising if the Habs gained on this outfit, though.
In: Gervais, Garon, Gilroy
Out: Smith, Bergenheim, Gagne, Jones
The teams around the Habs
Montreal posted a 6th place finish last season. 6th place last season, indeed any season, is indication of membership in the competitive pack, the peloton.
The Buffalo Sabres were the 7th place team last spring. They actually matched the Canadiens 96 points and did it thanks to a a flourish at the finish. The Habs beat them on the tie break of 44 wins vs. 43 wins.
All that to say that these two teams are quite close. In fact, they've been leap-frogging each other for a few seasons since the lockout.
So far from being inconsequential, the moves Buffalo made (and makes) will directly affect the Habs. This is quite a pity for the Habs, because like Washington, Buffalo went out and made some pretty substantial and positive moves.
Their defence alone merits their inclusion in any list of winners from this period. While ejecting Steve Montador and Chris Butler, the Sabres added Robyn Regehr and Christian Ehrhoff. This makes for an interesting unit at the back, and an improved one.
On top of that, the Sabres overpaid to add Ville Leino - a feisty and combative forward who would have been considered an answer to the Habs "power forward" need himself. To make space, they let Tim Connolly go, but this shouldn't be too traumatic for the team.
On balance, this makes Buffalo better. Factor in a likely return to league elite numbers for Ryan Miller behind that defence and the Habs should be prepared to look at the Sabres ahead of them in the standings for a while.
In: Regehr, Kotalik, Ehrhoff, Leino
Out: Butler, Montador, Mancari, Connolly
The Rangers were also close to the Habs. In fact, Montreal only beat them on the strength of 3 extra OTLs. Adherents of Corsi and the like will also question NYR's inferiority in light of the +35 goal differential they put up vs. +7 for Montreal.
New York didn't go wild as they have done in the past, but they scored the big goal. After letting Chris Drury go to create space, the Rangers nabbed Brad Richards to play with Marian Gaborik. This is a big improvement for a team whose lack was goal-making. The Rangers improvement is substantial and bigger I feel than a Pouliot upgrade at this point.
In: Richards, Rupp
Out: Drury, Gilroy
Finally, the Carolina Hurricanes. 5 points back of the Habs, the Canes challenged for the playoff spot right to the end.
And here finally there is some good news for the Habs. Though the Canes hung onto their better free agents, they did lose Erik Cole (an important goal-getter for them) and may yet lose others.
Montreal's slight gains get bigger compared to this relative rival who looked to replace Cole cheaply through Ponikarovsky, Brent and Anthony Stewart. Cheap replacements rarely work and these I feel make their forward attack even more hodge podge than it ever has been. Carolina's steps back should give Montreal some breathing space.
In: Tim Brent, Boucher, Ponikarovsky, Stewart
Out: Cole
The New Jersey Devils
The Devils stand in a category alone. The best team in the NHL from late December on can't be pooled with the Leafs and Panthers of this league. They must be considered a serious rival for all the reasons they have been a serious rival to everyone in the East for two decades.
Interesting then that New Jersey's balance ledger is empty. A few pretty insignificant resignings point to the Devils standing pat. The Parise signing is the biggest factor in NJ and it seems like the higher means they'll be able to get that done.
Adding basically the best all around LW in the game to any team would be scary. To add him to the team that surged so strongly at the end of 2010-11 is a bit scary.
I'd think Montreal needs to think of NJ as a serious playoff rival this year, just another team added to the peloton for those last few spots.
In:
Out:
The stragglers
The 5 remaining teams in the East should be just that come April - the 5 remaining teams in the East. Some have tried hard to make steps (Florida) and some have stood virtually still (Ottawa, NYI). I'm sure the Leafs Nation will implore us to consider them a new rival, but it's hard to see how adding two injured/injury prone centres really answers the glaring deficiency they had, even if Cody Franson is a very handsome pick up. Tobalev also pointed out that the Monster/Reimer proposition should be an interesting one.
On balance
Keeping in mind that there's still many summer days ahead to change rosters, the Habs look like they should be holding some playoff ground in the East.
The Gauthier moves (and non-moves, I suppose) put the team in a slightly better position than the one they finished in.
By my count, two teams ahead of them distanced themselves further (Washington, Pittsburgh and the three others ahead probably did little enough damage to stay ahead. IN the pack that should occupy 6-10 in the East, Montreal looks competitive. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buffalo or NYR overtake, but Carolina should slip behind the Habs, and NJ likely won't overtake the Habs without seriously damaging the record of Philly or NYR.
I still believe that Pierre must do more from now till autumn's onset. Beyond replacing Halpern, which will happen as it always does, Gauthier should probably seek to supplement his backline and even add another forward that can score. There are plenty of attractive targets left in the UFA pool (Babchuk, Frolov, Miettinen, Stillman) and teams like NJ might need to trade yet.
I'm pleased , however, that Gauthier has put himself in a decent position four days into free agency. With money yet to spend, he is in touch and could credibly overtake some rivals here. This in itself is a positive thing, as mad signings (Randy McKay) might often have the opposite effect.
Out: James Wisnieski, Roman Hamrlik, Benoit Pouliot, Alex Auld
On the surface, this is Cole for Pouliot + cash and Budaj for Auld. Both moves are fine with me, even if I still think Pouliot has a special talent that I wish was a few more divisions away.
On the surface, it also looks like the Habs have created a hole on defence.
Of course they have (Hamrlik and Wisniewski were #1 and #2 at times last season), but the additions don't account for Andrei Markov who was essentially "not there" last year and that of Alexei Emelin.
Markov will easily plug the gap left by the Wizz (who did a bang up job of trying to fill Markov's position in his absence). Hamrlik, however, will be missed. Weber and Emelin are not at Roman's level yet, not even as a committee, so this is a subtraction as it stands.
Overall then, Montreal has taken a small step back so far on the backline, and taken a decent step forward up front. Overall, they look a slightly better team. Compared to themselves.
But once again, it's important not to take this situation in isolation. Just because Montreal adds 8 goals at forward doesn't mean a spot in the standings. That can't be determined without looking at the rivals and how they performed.
The teams ahead of the Habs
Last year, 5 teams beat the Habs by a fair margin in the East. Washington, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Boston and Tampa Bay. All 5 teams were active in the past few weeks and will likely keep tweaking.
The Washington Capitals, winners of the East last season may be the most improved of all. The Caps overpaid to improve their forward depth (Brouwer, Ward), but it is still improved. On top of that, they added Hamrlik and upgraded on Semyon Varlamov by stealing Tomas Vokoun from the rest of the league. Add to this the fact that Washington can claim their own "Gomezes" (players who can't go anywhere but up) with Ovechkin, Green and Backstrom coming off quiet years.
In my opinion, Washington won't be caught or overtaken by the Habs with the moves and rosters as they stand.
In: Brouwer, Joel Ward, Hamrlik, Vokoun, Potulny, Halpern
Out: Varlamov, Boyd Gordon, Andrew Gordon, Sturm, Bradley
Philadelphia made waves early with their shock trades of Carter and Richards, but true to form added the salary right back in the form of Bryzgalov and Jagr.
The biggest difference in Philadelphia should be Bryzgalov, who, while overpaid, is a vast improvement over Leighton and Boucher. It's hard to know how much Philly gave up at the front through Richards, Carter and later Leino; but Voracek, Jagr and co. might lighten the blow at least a bit.
Overall, I still feel schizo Holmgren downgraded his team by going old and young at the same time. But the downgrade isn't to the point where I feel Philly will struggle to make the playoffs.
In: Bryzgalov, Voracek, Simonds, Schenn, Lilja, Talbot, Jagr
Out: Carter, Richards, Powe, Boucher, Leino, Carcillo, O'Donnell
Pittsburgh have been quieter till now. Happy it seems to wait the return of their cavalry. If people in Montreal are excited about having Markov back and Gomez having nowhere to go but up, imagine the Pens fans delight at the thought of adding to last season's plucky team through Crosby and Malkin.
Pittsburgh also quietly switched Talbot and Rupp for Steve Sullivan, who when healthy should find a place beside one of the big two.
It's perhaps not headline stuff, but the returning wounded improve Pittsburgh far beyond anything Montreal could have hoped to do anyway. This team will once again challenge for the top and the Cup barring injuries again.
In: Sullivan, Valabik
Out: Talbot, Rupp
Chiarelli must have had his day with the Stanley Cup on Friday because he did very little indeed. It says he lost Valabik, but he wasn't a big league Bruins. Essentially the balance was Ryder for Pouliot. Payment aside, this is a downgrade. While both have been Montreal playoff benchees, Ryder at least thrives with Julien. Pouliot may or may not.
Boston's minor downgrade may be enough for Montreal to challenge. Remember after all, that Boston only pipped the Habs at the end thanks to a certain few head-to-head encounters where focus was lost.
In: Pouliot
Out: Ryder, Valabik
In his second season, Stevie Y is slower out the gates. He changed his back-up goalie (Garon for Smith) and added some depth D, but lost Bergenheim and Gagne and may have to fight off offers for Stamkos.
Tampa improved by leaps and bounds last season and will still be fueled forward by Stamkos and Hedman, but questions about how much longer Roloson can perform, not to mention how much further Lecavalier will slide, point to some vulnerabilities there for rival Eastern clubs.
I think on balance Tampa will hold their position, at least for another season. It wouldn't be all that surprising if the Habs gained on this outfit, though.
In: Gervais, Garon, Gilroy
Out: Smith, Bergenheim, Gagne, Jones
The teams around the Habs
Montreal posted a 6th place finish last season. 6th place last season, indeed any season, is indication of membership in the competitive pack, the peloton.
The Buffalo Sabres were the 7th place team last spring. They actually matched the Canadiens 96 points and did it thanks to a a flourish at the finish. The Habs beat them on the tie break of 44 wins vs. 43 wins.
All that to say that these two teams are quite close. In fact, they've been leap-frogging each other for a few seasons since the lockout.
So far from being inconsequential, the moves Buffalo made (and makes) will directly affect the Habs. This is quite a pity for the Habs, because like Washington, Buffalo went out and made some pretty substantial and positive moves.
Their defence alone merits their inclusion in any list of winners from this period. While ejecting Steve Montador and Chris Butler, the Sabres added Robyn Regehr and Christian Ehrhoff. This makes for an interesting unit at the back, and an improved one.
On top of that, the Sabres overpaid to add Ville Leino - a feisty and combative forward who would have been considered an answer to the Habs "power forward" need himself. To make space, they let Tim Connolly go, but this shouldn't be too traumatic for the team.
On balance, this makes Buffalo better. Factor in a likely return to league elite numbers for Ryan Miller behind that defence and the Habs should be prepared to look at the Sabres ahead of them in the standings for a while.
In: Regehr, Kotalik, Ehrhoff, Leino
Out: Butler, Montador, Mancari, Connolly
The Rangers were also close to the Habs. In fact, Montreal only beat them on the strength of 3 extra OTLs. Adherents of Corsi and the like will also question NYR's inferiority in light of the +35 goal differential they put up vs. +7 for Montreal.
New York didn't go wild as they have done in the past, but they scored the big goal. After letting Chris Drury go to create space, the Rangers nabbed Brad Richards to play with Marian Gaborik. This is a big improvement for a team whose lack was goal-making. The Rangers improvement is substantial and bigger I feel than a Pouliot upgrade at this point.
In: Richards, Rupp
Out: Drury, Gilroy
Finally, the Carolina Hurricanes. 5 points back of the Habs, the Canes challenged for the playoff spot right to the end.
And here finally there is some good news for the Habs. Though the Canes hung onto their better free agents, they did lose Erik Cole (an important goal-getter for them) and may yet lose others.
Montreal's slight gains get bigger compared to this relative rival who looked to replace Cole cheaply through Ponikarovsky, Brent and Anthony Stewart. Cheap replacements rarely work and these I feel make their forward attack even more hodge podge than it ever has been. Carolina's steps back should give Montreal some breathing space.
In: Tim Brent, Boucher, Ponikarovsky, Stewart
Out: Cole
The New Jersey Devils
The Devils stand in a category alone. The best team in the NHL from late December on can't be pooled with the Leafs and Panthers of this league. They must be considered a serious rival for all the reasons they have been a serious rival to everyone in the East for two decades.
Interesting then that New Jersey's balance ledger is empty. A few pretty insignificant resignings point to the Devils standing pat. The Parise signing is the biggest factor in NJ and it seems like the higher means they'll be able to get that done.
Adding basically the best all around LW in the game to any team would be scary. To add him to the team that surged so strongly at the end of 2010-11 is a bit scary.
I'd think Montreal needs to think of NJ as a serious playoff rival this year, just another team added to the peloton for those last few spots.
In:
Out:
The stragglers
The 5 remaining teams in the East should be just that come April - the 5 remaining teams in the East. Some have tried hard to make steps (Florida) and some have stood virtually still (Ottawa, NYI). I'm sure the Leafs Nation will implore us to consider them a new rival, but it's hard to see how adding two injured/injury prone centres really answers the glaring deficiency they had, even if Cody Franson is a very handsome pick up. Tobalev also pointed out that the Monster/Reimer proposition should be an interesting one.
On balance
Keeping in mind that there's still many summer days ahead to change rosters, the Habs look like they should be holding some playoff ground in the East.
The Gauthier moves (and non-moves, I suppose) put the team in a slightly better position than the one they finished in.
By my count, two teams ahead of them distanced themselves further (Washington, Pittsburgh and the three others ahead probably did little enough damage to stay ahead. IN the pack that should occupy 6-10 in the East, Montreal looks competitive. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buffalo or NYR overtake, but Carolina should slip behind the Habs, and NJ likely won't overtake the Habs without seriously damaging the record of Philly or NYR.
I still believe that Pierre must do more from now till autumn's onset. Beyond replacing Halpern, which will happen as it always does, Gauthier should probably seek to supplement his backline and even add another forward that can score. There are plenty of attractive targets left in the UFA pool (Babchuk, Frolov, Miettinen, Stillman) and teams like NJ might need to trade yet.
I'm pleased , however, that Gauthier has put himself in a decent position four days into free agency. With money yet to spend, he is in touch and could credibly overtake some rivals here. This in itself is a positive thing, as mad signings (Randy McKay) might often have the opposite effect.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
The SG Line
A Solution That Could Pay Off
Yesterday I heard there was a rumour that Scott Gomez was available for teams to trade for him. If this is news, I must blast Gauthier and his team. This should have been the case from the minute they took on the salary albatross.
I understand the media's undying faith in terrible GMs, but really, I'm not hanging much hope on a Gomez trade.
Instead, I turn to more productive lines of thinking, like who could be a better winger for Gomez than Travis Moen?
A look down the free agent list for wingers that shoot first, pass later doesn't yield much. Selanne is there, but what moment of madness would have to overcome him to choose Montreal now? Jagr is lurking, but again, why would a guy on a discount offer most of his lower salary to Revenu Quebec?
In May, we had the hope of Mike Knuble, Milan Hejduk, Brooks Laich, but as with most years, the solid choices just get resigned by their own outfits.
When I look down the list I don't see much in terms of volume, but there is one goalscorer who I think would benefit from a change of scene and someone who passes first, passes more later.
That guy is Simon Gagne.
Despite the memories of far-off 40-goal seasons and the familiarity of his name in the injury reports, Simon is still only 31 years old.
The thing I like most about Gagne is that he is a goalscorer first and foremost. Once a perennial 30-goal man, he even chipped in 17 in a curtailed season that one would call below average. May not sound like much, but considering that we're trying to upgrade on Pouliot here, it's not irrelevant.
Gagne has also shown the ability to play with many different players and take on many different roles (something vital on a Jacques Martin team) and was at his most productive with solid set up man (Forsberg or Briere, take your pick).
I don't know why Tampa didn't work out for him that well, but it may simply have been a bad fit. I'm willing to bet a reduced salary on it.
Put Gagne with Gomez and you'd have the SG line, I think it would be pretty productive, don't you?
1st period, 12:28 - Simon Gagne (28) (Scott Gomez, Some Guy)
I understand the media's undying faith in terrible GMs, but really, I'm not hanging much hope on a Gomez trade.
Instead, I turn to more productive lines of thinking, like who could be a better winger for Gomez than Travis Moen?
A look down the free agent list for wingers that shoot first, pass later doesn't yield much. Selanne is there, but what moment of madness would have to overcome him to choose Montreal now? Jagr is lurking, but again, why would a guy on a discount offer most of his lower salary to Revenu Quebec?
In May, we had the hope of Mike Knuble, Milan Hejduk, Brooks Laich, but as with most years, the solid choices just get resigned by their own outfits.
When I look down the list I don't see much in terms of volume, but there is one goalscorer who I think would benefit from a change of scene and someone who passes first, passes more later.
That guy is Simon Gagne.
Despite the memories of far-off 40-goal seasons and the familiarity of his name in the injury reports, Simon is still only 31 years old.
The thing I like most about Gagne is that he is a goalscorer first and foremost. Once a perennial 30-goal man, he even chipped in 17 in a curtailed season that one would call below average. May not sound like much, but considering that we're trying to upgrade on Pouliot here, it's not irrelevant.
Gagne has also shown the ability to play with many different players and take on many different roles (something vital on a Jacques Martin team) and was at his most productive with solid set up man (Forsberg or Briere, take your pick).
I don't know why Tampa didn't work out for him that well, but it may simply have been a bad fit. I'm willing to bet a reduced salary on it.
Put Gagne with Gomez and you'd have the SG line, I think it would be pretty productive, don't you?
1st period, 12:28 - Simon Gagne (28) (Scott Gomez, Some Guy)
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
A Study In Contrasts
Montreal's Draft In Context
Friday and Saturday was the first oasis in the desert of hockey fan summer. With rumours and trades and picks and news to comment on, the draft added some optimism for those of us desperately wanting next season to end so we don’t have to call the Bruins Stanly Cup Champions any longer.
The draft was interesting for Habs fans. For those most optimistic of cheerleaders, each pick was a reason to celebrate, as usual. For those with feet a little closer to the ground, the Canadiens did OK – nothing more. Everything’s hunky-dory on this particular caravan route.
But like hockey games, what your own team does on a given night (day) is really only one part of the equation. Taking 35 shots is great but not if you let up 48 in doing it. So too the draft. In isolation the players we picked all sound great (like all prospects tend to), yet when we start to look at which prospects were left aside (all also getting good reviews) and what our chief rivals did on the very same day, the picture gets a little murkier.
My study in contrasts on this day pits our Montreal Canadiens against their closest neighbours, the Ottawa Senators.
Outwardly, the teams are in different situations at the end of this season. Ottawa in full rebuild. Montreal in a holding pattern waiting to contend. Ottawa still searching for a goalie. Montreal watching as Price garners many a Vezina (and Hart) vote.
But outward appearances can be deceiving and both teams also have other similarities.
Both, for instance, have high quality farm operations feeding them players. The Hamilton Bulldogs play to win and are perennial producers of players who now reflect that attitude. The Binghampton Senators, with their mix of AHL vets and Sens hopefuls just won the Calder Cup.
Both teams most intriguing prospect has emerged in the last two seasons at the back end. PK Subban in Montreal was a pleasant surprise from the second round of a recent draft. Erik Karlsson was the Sens most consistent player of the season.
Both teams, in the light of day, have a lot of trouble scoring goals. Montreal managed to post up respectable totals through the regular campaign, but even in late winter sometimes struggled to really score when it mattered and certainly weren’t burying teams. Ottawa scored the least goals in the whole NHL this last year. Neither team can really boast a sure-fire scoring phenom in the system to correct this problem short- or long-term.
So in terms of free agent needs, the teams stand apart. Ottawa needs much to hope to contend. Montreal seeks a piece or two. But in terms of needs five years from now, apart from Carey Price, the team needs don’t look all that different (though Carey Price is not some trivial piece). Interesting then that two general managers took such contrasting approaches to dealing with what could have at the outset been the same shopping list.
First round
Montreal: Nathan Beaulieu (D)
In every preview I read, Nathan Beaulieu went before pick #17. So, if scouts are to be trusted, and I suppose they must, Montreal picked the best player available. What’s more, Nathan played in the QMJHL and has a name that will have placated at least those Nationalist fans who don’t own a computer.
My personal view is that this was a safe pick. Perhaps too safe. As you know I’m not fond of picking defencemen in the first round, not because I don’t like defencemen (I do), rather because I think it’s harder to pry a scoring forward from a rival down the road.
Beaulieu may well turn out to be very good, but because Montreal will have PK Subban and Andrei Markov, he may be a luxury item. Trade him you say. Well, how much do you get for a defenceman who can score and play the back end? A second rounder if he’s as good as Wisniewski?
Ottawa: Mika Zibanejad (F), Stefan Noesen (F), Matt Puempel (F)
In every preview I read, Zibanejad and Noesen went lower than they were picked. And I explained why I didn’t favour Puempel before. If it were one pick from these vs. Beaulieu, 6 out of 10 scouts would have to say Montreal got better value (if they were true to their assessments). But on the whole, Ottawa’s first round was made better for continuity of strategy. Although I’m sure they’d like another partner for Erik Karlsson (and David Rundblad), they identified value in getting offensive players with skill and an actual knack for scoring (not a potential knack) and picked accordingly.
Between the three players, I think the Sens will have found two NHLers. I still think Noesen was the savviest pick of the draft.
Winner: Ottawa
It would have taken a lot for Montreal to outdraft Ottawa in Round 1 of this draft. Volume wasn’t in their favour. Ottawa didn’t slip, and Montreal played too safe in my opinion for this to be anything but an Ottawa victory.
Second and third rounds
Montreal: 2 fourth round picks
Montreal traded their third rounder for two later picks. This is a great, great move. By round three teams are far apart on their assessments of the players and their own needs. Most times, one would be unlucky to just miss a player earmarked for a pick in the third round or later. Two for one is a bargain. Heads up from Gauthier.
Ottawa: Shane Prince (F), Nikita Filatov (F)
Offense, offense and more offense. Sticking to the script, Bryan Murray and his team delivered more on their mandate. Prince was 13th in OHL scoring with a jump of 58 points. A hometown 67 to boot, he was worth taking a chance on.
Filatov is different. He has issues and I can see why he would be available for a third rounder. But the Senators in their current form have nothing to lose on this trade. Their lineup last spring was an AHL team and Filatov won’t be anything but an improvement, regardless of how often he shows up for shifts. The upside of the trade being as huge as it is, it’s a win from the Senators standpoint.
Winner: Ottawa
Despite not yet drafting a single defender, Ottawa is running away from Montreal in this draft. Volume again is the main factor, but there are moves here that Montreal would have made if they could have been in the position. Gauthier did well, but like the 35 shot generating team, did he do enough in the lead up to this draft to make the most of the picks he had round 3 and up? Will we be fretting over how cheaply Filatov was when free agency lands us our eventual Pouliot replacement?
Fourth and fifth rounds
Montreal: Josiah Didier (D), Olivier Archambault (F), Magnus Nygren (D), Darren Dietz (D)
Finally a forward! Olivier Archambault is full of potential (apparently), but flags go up for veterans of two junior seasons whose profile still relies heavily on their AAA information. Other than Archambault, the picking was on message for the day for Gauthier too: “We could never have too many offensive defencemen”.
The thrill about Didier seems to be that he was ranked so low 6 months ago, that his 108 final ranking (where he was picked) was deemed a temporary stop on his way up. To me, it seems like another safe pick, one in the mold of Timmins’ safest. Didier isn’t even in college but will be, so his contract won’t be on the books and his name could easily go the way of Stejskal or Pateryn without an eyelash being batted. It seems to me like this is the way scouts like it.
I can be more positive about Nygren and Dietz. Nygren is already a playing pro. He shoots right and has clearly established himself at age 21 on a good team. He’s a safe pick in a way too, because at 21 one already knows more about him. But this kind of safe sits better with me vs. the ability to “sweep a pick under the rug” kind of safe.
Clearly the Canadiens were watching Duncan Siemens. The Dietz pick proves that. And, their homework on Siemens produced a pick. If I were a betting man, I’d put more money on Dietz to don the Habs sweater then any pick in this draft other than Beaulieu.
Ottawa: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (F), Fredrik Claesson (D)
Ottawa took a Swedish defender and a QMJHL forward too. Pageau was 16th in QMJHL scoring, but 3rd in the playoffs. The small Quebecois is also local to Ottawa (Gatineau) and represents another well-taken gamble for the Sens. Claesson is a defensive Dman (already), though a youngster and a 5-game pro. Not too worried about missing this Swede.
Winner: Draw
Ottawa scooped Montreal on Pageau and forced the much bigger Archambault gamble. For this Gauthier can be chastised, as he was a mere pick away from #96. But Montreal did better in getting Nygren, who has real credentials behind him already and did amazingly to get Dietz who I think is as good as 5th rounders get.
Sixth and seventh rounds
Montreal: Daniel Pribyl (F), Colin Sullivan (D)
Two picks and two totally different approaches.
In Pribyl, the Habs take a flyer on a raw prospect from a league and a country that is way out of favour with scouts and GMs. To me, Pribyl is a bit like Avtsin. One really can’t tell what the stats mean, but the package on paper looks great. With a sixth rounder, a team should be doing these things, so kudos to Gauthier and Timmins for surprising us all.
In Sullivan, the Habs gave their nod to scouting consensus. Sullivan was a highly-ranked, yet overlooked American. Another smoothe-skating offensive-minded D (these seem so common in the minors, where are they in the NHL?), Sullivan is another safe pick in my eyes.
I will say that Ondrej Palat was taken by the Lightning with the 208th pick. We’re talking 4th leading scorer in the QMJHL – 39 goals. I’d chalk Colin Sullivan as a massive waste for this reason alone.
Ottawa: Darren Kramer (F), Max McCormick (F), Jordan Fransco (D), Ryan Dzingel (F)
A big guy, a couple of scoring USHLers and a decent WHL defender. These are late round picks, but in Dzingel, it feels like the Senators gambled again and may come away with something. Consider that Dzingel in his second year in the USHL scored 23 goals and 67 points (one may remember a certain Habs first rounder scoring 21 goals and 63 points in the same league to rave reviews).
Winner: Montreal
Despite missing a big opportunity with the 7th round pick (Palat), the Habs still kept their tradition of making interesting and daring picks in the late rounds. By that, of course, I mean Pribyl. Of all 6 players selected by Montreal and Ottawa, he’s the only one we’d really expect to see in a prominent role. Ottawa meanwhile filled in the blanks, opting for slightly less flashy options to balance their first few rounds.
Overall draft: Montreal vs. Ottawa
Ottawa came out of Draft 2011 with a better crop than Montreal did. Part of this was due to volume and earlier picks. However, this isn’t the whole story. By sticking to a single strategy (and a sound one in my opinion) of picking for the rarest commodity – scorers – Ottawa came away from draft day with a stable of names from which a reasonable person could see two or three legitimate scorers emerging. Montreal on the other hand may have picked the third member of the new Big Three, but with what we know of contracts and current depth charts at best would only have picked up a 5th and 6th Dman as well as some trade chips.
Archambault and Pribyl were the Habs gamble to try and fill in gaps left by Maxwell, Trunev, Sergei, Grabovski and others in the offensive depth chart, but they really do pale when stacked beside Zibanejad, Noesen, Puempel, Prince, Pageau, etc.
So that’s it Habs fans. I think our team had an average draft. There was no Fischer pick or Tanguay trade to mar the face of it, but nor did the Habs make great strides to get ahead of their rivals for 2015.
There’s nothing wrong with average. And average can sure up the foundation, as it surely will. But to constantly look at everything in isolation when teams like the Senators (and others) are making real noise on draft day belies the nature of this league.
The next oasis in this desert is free agency, I hope we get a better spot to take a drink…
The draft was interesting for Habs fans. For those most optimistic of cheerleaders, each pick was a reason to celebrate, as usual. For those with feet a little closer to the ground, the Canadiens did OK – nothing more. Everything’s hunky-dory on this particular caravan route.
But like hockey games, what your own team does on a given night (day) is really only one part of the equation. Taking 35 shots is great but not if you let up 48 in doing it. So too the draft. In isolation the players we picked all sound great (like all prospects tend to), yet when we start to look at which prospects were left aside (all also getting good reviews) and what our chief rivals did on the very same day, the picture gets a little murkier.
My study in contrasts on this day pits our Montreal Canadiens against their closest neighbours, the Ottawa Senators.
Outwardly, the teams are in different situations at the end of this season. Ottawa in full rebuild. Montreal in a holding pattern waiting to contend. Ottawa still searching for a goalie. Montreal watching as Price garners many a Vezina (and Hart) vote.
But outward appearances can be deceiving and both teams also have other similarities.
Both, for instance, have high quality farm operations feeding them players. The Hamilton Bulldogs play to win and are perennial producers of players who now reflect that attitude. The Binghampton Senators, with their mix of AHL vets and Sens hopefuls just won the Calder Cup.
Both teams most intriguing prospect has emerged in the last two seasons at the back end. PK Subban in Montreal was a pleasant surprise from the second round of a recent draft. Erik Karlsson was the Sens most consistent player of the season.
Both teams, in the light of day, have a lot of trouble scoring goals. Montreal managed to post up respectable totals through the regular campaign, but even in late winter sometimes struggled to really score when it mattered and certainly weren’t burying teams. Ottawa scored the least goals in the whole NHL this last year. Neither team can really boast a sure-fire scoring phenom in the system to correct this problem short- or long-term.
So in terms of free agent needs, the teams stand apart. Ottawa needs much to hope to contend. Montreal seeks a piece or two. But in terms of needs five years from now, apart from Carey Price, the team needs don’t look all that different (though Carey Price is not some trivial piece). Interesting then that two general managers took such contrasting approaches to dealing with what could have at the outset been the same shopping list.
First round
Montreal: Nathan Beaulieu (D)
In every preview I read, Nathan Beaulieu went before pick #17. So, if scouts are to be trusted, and I suppose they must, Montreal picked the best player available. What’s more, Nathan played in the QMJHL and has a name that will have placated at least those Nationalist fans who don’t own a computer.
My personal view is that this was a safe pick. Perhaps too safe. As you know I’m not fond of picking defencemen in the first round, not because I don’t like defencemen (I do), rather because I think it’s harder to pry a scoring forward from a rival down the road.
Beaulieu may well turn out to be very good, but because Montreal will have PK Subban and Andrei Markov, he may be a luxury item. Trade him you say. Well, how much do you get for a defenceman who can score and play the back end? A second rounder if he’s as good as Wisniewski?
Ottawa: Mika Zibanejad (F), Stefan Noesen (F), Matt Puempel (F)
In every preview I read, Zibanejad and Noesen went lower than they were picked. And I explained why I didn’t favour Puempel before. If it were one pick from these vs. Beaulieu, 6 out of 10 scouts would have to say Montreal got better value (if they were true to their assessments). But on the whole, Ottawa’s first round was made better for continuity of strategy. Although I’m sure they’d like another partner for Erik Karlsson (and David Rundblad), they identified value in getting offensive players with skill and an actual knack for scoring (not a potential knack) and picked accordingly.
Between the three players, I think the Sens will have found two NHLers. I still think Noesen was the savviest pick of the draft.
Winner: Ottawa
It would have taken a lot for Montreal to outdraft Ottawa in Round 1 of this draft. Volume wasn’t in their favour. Ottawa didn’t slip, and Montreal played too safe in my opinion for this to be anything but an Ottawa victory.
Second and third rounds
Montreal: 2 fourth round picks
Montreal traded their third rounder for two later picks. This is a great, great move. By round three teams are far apart on their assessments of the players and their own needs. Most times, one would be unlucky to just miss a player earmarked for a pick in the third round or later. Two for one is a bargain. Heads up from Gauthier.
Ottawa: Shane Prince (F), Nikita Filatov (F)
Offense, offense and more offense. Sticking to the script, Bryan Murray and his team delivered more on their mandate. Prince was 13th in OHL scoring with a jump of 58 points. A hometown 67 to boot, he was worth taking a chance on.
Filatov is different. He has issues and I can see why he would be available for a third rounder. But the Senators in their current form have nothing to lose on this trade. Their lineup last spring was an AHL team and Filatov won’t be anything but an improvement, regardless of how often he shows up for shifts. The upside of the trade being as huge as it is, it’s a win from the Senators standpoint.
Winner: Ottawa
Despite not yet drafting a single defender, Ottawa is running away from Montreal in this draft. Volume again is the main factor, but there are moves here that Montreal would have made if they could have been in the position. Gauthier did well, but like the 35 shot generating team, did he do enough in the lead up to this draft to make the most of the picks he had round 3 and up? Will we be fretting over how cheaply Filatov was when free agency lands us our eventual Pouliot replacement?
Fourth and fifth rounds
Montreal: Josiah Didier (D), Olivier Archambault (F), Magnus Nygren (D), Darren Dietz (D)
Finally a forward! Olivier Archambault is full of potential (apparently), but flags go up for veterans of two junior seasons whose profile still relies heavily on their AAA information. Other than Archambault, the picking was on message for the day for Gauthier too: “We could never have too many offensive defencemen”.
The thrill about Didier seems to be that he was ranked so low 6 months ago, that his 108 final ranking (where he was picked) was deemed a temporary stop on his way up. To me, it seems like another safe pick, one in the mold of Timmins’ safest. Didier isn’t even in college but will be, so his contract won’t be on the books and his name could easily go the way of Stejskal or Pateryn without an eyelash being batted. It seems to me like this is the way scouts like it.
I can be more positive about Nygren and Dietz. Nygren is already a playing pro. He shoots right and has clearly established himself at age 21 on a good team. He’s a safe pick in a way too, because at 21 one already knows more about him. But this kind of safe sits better with me vs. the ability to “sweep a pick under the rug” kind of safe.
Clearly the Canadiens were watching Duncan Siemens. The Dietz pick proves that. And, their homework on Siemens produced a pick. If I were a betting man, I’d put more money on Dietz to don the Habs sweater then any pick in this draft other than Beaulieu.
Ottawa: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (F), Fredrik Claesson (D)
Ottawa took a Swedish defender and a QMJHL forward too. Pageau was 16th in QMJHL scoring, but 3rd in the playoffs. The small Quebecois is also local to Ottawa (Gatineau) and represents another well-taken gamble for the Sens. Claesson is a defensive Dman (already), though a youngster and a 5-game pro. Not too worried about missing this Swede.
Winner: Draw
Ottawa scooped Montreal on Pageau and forced the much bigger Archambault gamble. For this Gauthier can be chastised, as he was a mere pick away from #96. But Montreal did better in getting Nygren, who has real credentials behind him already and did amazingly to get Dietz who I think is as good as 5th rounders get.
Sixth and seventh rounds
Montreal: Daniel Pribyl (F), Colin Sullivan (D)
Two picks and two totally different approaches.
In Pribyl, the Habs take a flyer on a raw prospect from a league and a country that is way out of favour with scouts and GMs. To me, Pribyl is a bit like Avtsin. One really can’t tell what the stats mean, but the package on paper looks great. With a sixth rounder, a team should be doing these things, so kudos to Gauthier and Timmins for surprising us all.
In Sullivan, the Habs gave their nod to scouting consensus. Sullivan was a highly-ranked, yet overlooked American. Another smoothe-skating offensive-minded D (these seem so common in the minors, where are they in the NHL?), Sullivan is another safe pick in my eyes.
I will say that Ondrej Palat was taken by the Lightning with the 208th pick. We’re talking 4th leading scorer in the QMJHL – 39 goals. I’d chalk Colin Sullivan as a massive waste for this reason alone.
Ottawa: Darren Kramer (F), Max McCormick (F), Jordan Fransco (D), Ryan Dzingel (F)
A big guy, a couple of scoring USHLers and a decent WHL defender. These are late round picks, but in Dzingel, it feels like the Senators gambled again and may come away with something. Consider that Dzingel in his second year in the USHL scored 23 goals and 67 points (one may remember a certain Habs first rounder scoring 21 goals and 63 points in the same league to rave reviews).
Winner: Montreal
Despite missing a big opportunity with the 7th round pick (Palat), the Habs still kept their tradition of making interesting and daring picks in the late rounds. By that, of course, I mean Pribyl. Of all 6 players selected by Montreal and Ottawa, he’s the only one we’d really expect to see in a prominent role. Ottawa meanwhile filled in the blanks, opting for slightly less flashy options to balance their first few rounds.
Overall draft: Montreal vs. Ottawa
Ottawa came out of Draft 2011 with a better crop than Montreal did. Part of this was due to volume and earlier picks. However, this isn’t the whole story. By sticking to a single strategy (and a sound one in my opinion) of picking for the rarest commodity – scorers – Ottawa came away from draft day with a stable of names from which a reasonable person could see two or three legitimate scorers emerging. Montreal on the other hand may have picked the third member of the new Big Three, but with what we know of contracts and current depth charts at best would only have picked up a 5th and 6th Dman as well as some trade chips.
Archambault and Pribyl were the Habs gamble to try and fill in gaps left by Maxwell, Trunev, Sergei, Grabovski and others in the offensive depth chart, but they really do pale when stacked beside Zibanejad, Noesen, Puempel, Prince, Pageau, etc.
So that’s it Habs fans. I think our team had an average draft. There was no Fischer pick or Tanguay trade to mar the face of it, but nor did the Habs make great strides to get ahead of their rivals for 2015.
There’s nothing wrong with average. And average can sure up the foundation, as it surely will. But to constantly look at everything in isolation when teams like the Senators (and others) are making real noise on draft day belies the nature of this league.
The next oasis in this desert is free agency, I hope we get a better spot to take a drink…
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)