The Montreal Canadiens are still in the running for the biggest impact trade of 2013.
It wasn't the one yesterday, though if you'd told me in mid-slumber that they got that guy Drew-something from LA for picks, I might have thought otherwise. The trade that still stands is the one that brought in Michael Ryder for a second go-around with his goal every other game and 14 points in 15.
And it shouldn't surprise that a classic player for player trade be in the running for such a nod. One has to give a lot to get a lot. And Erik Cole was a lot.
Showing posts with label Jagr. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jagr. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 03, 2013
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Insert Headline:
The Spin and the Motive for the Erik Cole Trade
Canadiens unload Cole to the Stars.
Erik Cole has been traded to the Stars.
Erik Cole's contract traded to the Stars for UFA Michael Ryder.
Canadiens acquire Michael Ryder from Dallas.
Stars and Canadiens swap scorers.
Erik Cole has been traded to the Stars.
Erik Cole's contract traded to the Stars for UFA Michael Ryder.
Canadiens acquire Michael Ryder from Dallas.
Stars and Canadiens swap scorers.
Monday, July 04, 2011
Cole Shoulders High Expectations in Montreal
Two somewhat paranormal coincidences to report, one being my comment on Topham's Thursday post about my "dream signing" being Erik Cole; and him being signed hours later. The second is that I apparently agree with Jack Todd, for once. Eerie.
So why Erik Cole?
In my opinion, the biggest need for the Habs up front this off-season was clear: a proven top-6 winger with size. We've all talked before on many occasions about the need for a power forward, preferably a good winger to play with the albatross that is Scott Gomez. Someone who can battle in front of the net, and not have Andrew Leighton simply look over their heads if they set a screen. Someone who can score at least 20 goals a season; the more, the better. Having another RH shot among the forwards would also be a big plus, as only Gionta and Ryan White currently qualify.
Now, we knew we were fooling ourselves if we even dared think about Jaromir Jagr or Brad Richards; and wonder idly if there was ever any talk from head office to, say, the Sharks about Setoguchi or Pavelski when they were moved. The UFA pool was fairly shallow this year, so Montreal didn't have a lot of great choices. Once Philly wrapped up RFA Claude Giroux, the market consisted basically of Cole, Michael Ryder, and Jamie Langenbrunner.
Michael Ryder
We've been here before. Ryder was a Calder-nominated rookie for us back in 2003-04, scoring 25 goals and 38 assists. He had 2 straight 30-goal campaigns after the lockout, but a sub-par 2007-08 season (likely due to personal issues related to his brother) saw him benched by Carbonneau and left to free agency. He rebounded with Boston, scoring 27 goals and over 50 points again, but since has trailed off to 33 points last season and 41 this year despite around 15 minutes of ice-time. He's a proven scorer, and at 6' and 192 lbs is large for a Habs forward. Somehow I don't know that he'd welcome an offer from Montreal, nor that Montreal fans would be happy to have him back; and there's no guarantee he'll ever return to his 30-goal form. Dallas will pay him $3.5M per year for the next two seasons finding out.
Jamie Langenbrunner
The oldest of the trio at 35, Langenbrunner is a proven 2-way forward that's won two Cups (one with Dallas in 1999, and one with New Jersey in 2003). He fit in well with New Jersey's conservative style of play and Jacques Martin would probably love him for it. He's scored 20+ goals 4 times in 16 NHL seasons and twice came within 2 goals of the mark; and has 6 seasons with 50+ points. He's got good size at 6'1" and 205 lbs. Given that he's still unsigned, I'm left wondering why - he would have likely been a decent addition to many squads and his last contract was only worth $2.8M/yr. I am guessing Pierre Gauthier talked to him, but the fact he's still unsigned makes me think there's something a little fishy.
Erik Cole
At 32 years old and beginning his 10th NHL season, Cole has had his problems with injuries with an astonishing 86 games missed since the lockout. However, he's managed to clear 50 points 4 times in that span, and score 20+ three times (with another 18-goal season). However, he doesn't seem to play well with people who aren't Hurricanes: he had a pretty disastrous 27 points in 63 games with the Oilers in 2008-09 before returning to Carolina to put up 15 points in a mere 17 games. Still, he can be productive while playing tough minutes against hard opposition, and was one of only 5 players to score over 25 goals and deliver over 200 hits last season.
I reasoned that we need a big, RH winger that can hit and score. To me, Cole was the best choice. I think he's the biggest offensive threat of the three, he uses his size and at 6'2" and 205 lbs he's far from small. If he can stay healthy, and he did play 82 games last year, I don't think it's unreasonable to think he can put away another 25 goals and help Gomez pull his numbers up to reasonable levels - but I'm expecting a fair amount of line-juggling from Jacques Martin early on and the lines might not be what we're expecting. I was hoping to sign him for a little less than $4.5M for 2-3 years, but he'll be 37 at the contract's end and not exactly ancient. The reality is that we have to pay a premium to get players from the US that would rather not pay Canadian and Quebec taxes.
Maybe less like a "dream signing," and more like a realistic one. I guess I don't dream very big. But if Cole stays healthy, I think he can be the physical 25-goal scorer we could use so badly; and it least it's a dream that has a chance of coming true.
Let us know in the comments who I missed, and who you would have rather seen putting on the Bleu-Blanc-Rouge this past weekend.
So why Erik Cole?
In my opinion, the biggest need for the Habs up front this off-season was clear: a proven top-6 winger with size. We've all talked before on many occasions about the need for a power forward, preferably a good winger to play with the albatross that is Scott Gomez. Someone who can battle in front of the net, and not have Andrew Leighton simply look over their heads if they set a screen. Someone who can score at least 20 goals a season; the more, the better. Having another RH shot among the forwards would also be a big plus, as only Gionta and Ryan White currently qualify.
Now, we knew we were fooling ourselves if we even dared think about Jaromir Jagr or Brad Richards; and wonder idly if there was ever any talk from head office to, say, the Sharks about Setoguchi or Pavelski when they were moved. The UFA pool was fairly shallow this year, so Montreal didn't have a lot of great choices. Once Philly wrapped up RFA Claude Giroux, the market consisted basically of Cole, Michael Ryder, and Jamie Langenbrunner.
Michael Ryder
We've been here before. Ryder was a Calder-nominated rookie for us back in 2003-04, scoring 25 goals and 38 assists. He had 2 straight 30-goal campaigns after the lockout, but a sub-par 2007-08 season (likely due to personal issues related to his brother) saw him benched by Carbonneau and left to free agency. He rebounded with Boston, scoring 27 goals and over 50 points again, but since has trailed off to 33 points last season and 41 this year despite around 15 minutes of ice-time. He's a proven scorer, and at 6' and 192 lbs is large for a Habs forward. Somehow I don't know that he'd welcome an offer from Montreal, nor that Montreal fans would be happy to have him back; and there's no guarantee he'll ever return to his 30-goal form. Dallas will pay him $3.5M per year for the next two seasons finding out.
Jamie Langenbrunner
The oldest of the trio at 35, Langenbrunner is a proven 2-way forward that's won two Cups (one with Dallas in 1999, and one with New Jersey in 2003). He fit in well with New Jersey's conservative style of play and Jacques Martin would probably love him for it. He's scored 20+ goals 4 times in 16 NHL seasons and twice came within 2 goals of the mark; and has 6 seasons with 50+ points. He's got good size at 6'1" and 205 lbs. Given that he's still unsigned, I'm left wondering why - he would have likely been a decent addition to many squads and his last contract was only worth $2.8M/yr. I am guessing Pierre Gauthier talked to him, but the fact he's still unsigned makes me think there's something a little fishy.
Erik Cole
At 32 years old and beginning his 10th NHL season, Cole has had his problems with injuries with an astonishing 86 games missed since the lockout. However, he's managed to clear 50 points 4 times in that span, and score 20+ three times (with another 18-goal season). However, he doesn't seem to play well with people who aren't Hurricanes: he had a pretty disastrous 27 points in 63 games with the Oilers in 2008-09 before returning to Carolina to put up 15 points in a mere 17 games. Still, he can be productive while playing tough minutes against hard opposition, and was one of only 5 players to score over 25 goals and deliver over 200 hits last season.
I reasoned that we need a big, RH winger that can hit and score. To me, Cole was the best choice. I think he's the biggest offensive threat of the three, he uses his size and at 6'2" and 205 lbs he's far from small. If he can stay healthy, and he did play 82 games last year, I don't think it's unreasonable to think he can put away another 25 goals and help Gomez pull his numbers up to reasonable levels - but I'm expecting a fair amount of line-juggling from Jacques Martin early on and the lines might not be what we're expecting. I was hoping to sign him for a little less than $4.5M for 2-3 years, but he'll be 37 at the contract's end and not exactly ancient. The reality is that we have to pay a premium to get players from the US that would rather not pay Canadian and Quebec taxes.
Maybe less like a "dream signing," and more like a realistic one. I guess I don't dream very big. But if Cole stays healthy, I think he can be the physical 25-goal scorer we could use so badly; and it least it's a dream that has a chance of coming true.
Let us know in the comments who I missed, and who you would have rather seen putting on the Bleu-Blanc-Rouge this past weekend.
The Reshuffle
Habs And Rivals After Busy Free Agency Period
In: Erik Cole, Peter Budaj
Out: James Wisnieski, Roman Hamrlik, Benoit Pouliot, Alex Auld
On the surface, this is Cole for Pouliot + cash and Budaj for Auld. Both moves are fine with me, even if I still think Pouliot has a special talent that I wish was a few more divisions away.
On the surface, it also looks like the Habs have created a hole on defence.
Of course they have (Hamrlik and Wisniewski were #1 and #2 at times last season), but the additions don't account for Andrei Markov who was essentially "not there" last year and that of Alexei Emelin.
Markov will easily plug the gap left by the Wizz (who did a bang up job of trying to fill Markov's position in his absence). Hamrlik, however, will be missed. Weber and Emelin are not at Roman's level yet, not even as a committee, so this is a subtraction as it stands.
Overall then, Montreal has taken a small step back so far on the backline, and taken a decent step forward up front. Overall, they look a slightly better team. Compared to themselves.
But once again, it's important not to take this situation in isolation. Just because Montreal adds 8 goals at forward doesn't mean a spot in the standings. That can't be determined without looking at the rivals and how they performed.
The teams ahead of the Habs
Last year, 5 teams beat the Habs by a fair margin in the East. Washington, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Boston and Tampa Bay. All 5 teams were active in the past few weeks and will likely keep tweaking.
The Washington Capitals, winners of the East last season may be the most improved of all. The Caps overpaid to improve their forward depth (Brouwer, Ward), but it is still improved. On top of that, they added Hamrlik and upgraded on Semyon Varlamov by stealing Tomas Vokoun from the rest of the league. Add to this the fact that Washington can claim their own "Gomezes" (players who can't go anywhere but up) with Ovechkin, Green and Backstrom coming off quiet years.
In my opinion, Washington won't be caught or overtaken by the Habs with the moves and rosters as they stand.
In: Brouwer, Joel Ward, Hamrlik, Vokoun, Potulny, Halpern
Out: Varlamov, Boyd Gordon, Andrew Gordon, Sturm, Bradley
Philadelphia made waves early with their shock trades of Carter and Richards, but true to form added the salary right back in the form of Bryzgalov and Jagr.
The biggest difference in Philadelphia should be Bryzgalov, who, while overpaid, is a vast improvement over Leighton and Boucher. It's hard to know how much Philly gave up at the front through Richards, Carter and later Leino; but Voracek, Jagr and co. might lighten the blow at least a bit.
Overall, I still feel schizo Holmgren downgraded his team by going old and young at the same time. But the downgrade isn't to the point where I feel Philly will struggle to make the playoffs.
In: Bryzgalov, Voracek, Simonds, Schenn, Lilja, Talbot, Jagr
Out: Carter, Richards, Powe, Boucher, Leino, Carcillo, O'Donnell
Pittsburgh have been quieter till now. Happy it seems to wait the return of their cavalry. If people in Montreal are excited about having Markov back and Gomez having nowhere to go but up, imagine the Pens fans delight at the thought of adding to last season's plucky team through Crosby and Malkin.
Pittsburgh also quietly switched Talbot and Rupp for Steve Sullivan, who when healthy should find a place beside one of the big two.
It's perhaps not headline stuff, but the returning wounded improve Pittsburgh far beyond anything Montreal could have hoped to do anyway. This team will once again challenge for the top and the Cup barring injuries again.
In: Sullivan, Valabik
Out: Talbot, Rupp
Chiarelli must have had his day with the Stanley Cup on Friday because he did very little indeed. It says he lost Valabik, but he wasn't a big league Bruins. Essentially the balance was Ryder for Pouliot. Payment aside, this is a downgrade. While both have been Montreal playoff benchees, Ryder at least thrives with Julien. Pouliot may or may not.
Boston's minor downgrade may be enough for Montreal to challenge. Remember after all, that Boston only pipped the Habs at the end thanks to a certain few head-to-head encounters where focus was lost.
In: Pouliot
Out: Ryder, Valabik
In his second season, Stevie Y is slower out the gates. He changed his back-up goalie (Garon for Smith) and added some depth D, but lost Bergenheim and Gagne and may have to fight off offers for Stamkos.
Tampa improved by leaps and bounds last season and will still be fueled forward by Stamkos and Hedman, but questions about how much longer Roloson can perform, not to mention how much further Lecavalier will slide, point to some vulnerabilities there for rival Eastern clubs.
I think on balance Tampa will hold their position, at least for another season. It wouldn't be all that surprising if the Habs gained on this outfit, though.
In: Gervais, Garon, Gilroy
Out: Smith, Bergenheim, Gagne, Jones
The teams around the Habs
Montreal posted a 6th place finish last season. 6th place last season, indeed any season, is indication of membership in the competitive pack, the peloton.
The Buffalo Sabres were the 7th place team last spring. They actually matched the Canadiens 96 points and did it thanks to a a flourish at the finish. The Habs beat them on the tie break of 44 wins vs. 43 wins.
All that to say that these two teams are quite close. In fact, they've been leap-frogging each other for a few seasons since the lockout.
So far from being inconsequential, the moves Buffalo made (and makes) will directly affect the Habs. This is quite a pity for the Habs, because like Washington, Buffalo went out and made some pretty substantial and positive moves.
Their defence alone merits their inclusion in any list of winners from this period. While ejecting Steve Montador and Chris Butler, the Sabres added Robyn Regehr and Christian Ehrhoff. This makes for an interesting unit at the back, and an improved one.
On top of that, the Sabres overpaid to add Ville Leino - a feisty and combative forward who would have been considered an answer to the Habs "power forward" need himself. To make space, they let Tim Connolly go, but this shouldn't be too traumatic for the team.
On balance, this makes Buffalo better. Factor in a likely return to league elite numbers for Ryan Miller behind that defence and the Habs should be prepared to look at the Sabres ahead of them in the standings for a while.
In: Regehr, Kotalik, Ehrhoff, Leino
Out: Butler, Montador, Mancari, Connolly
The Rangers were also close to the Habs. In fact, Montreal only beat them on the strength of 3 extra OTLs. Adherents of Corsi and the like will also question NYR's inferiority in light of the +35 goal differential they put up vs. +7 for Montreal.
New York didn't go wild as they have done in the past, but they scored the big goal. After letting Chris Drury go to create space, the Rangers nabbed Brad Richards to play with Marian Gaborik. This is a big improvement for a team whose lack was goal-making. The Rangers improvement is substantial and bigger I feel than a Pouliot upgrade at this point.
In: Richards, Rupp
Out: Drury, Gilroy
Finally, the Carolina Hurricanes. 5 points back of the Habs, the Canes challenged for the playoff spot right to the end.
And here finally there is some good news for the Habs. Though the Canes hung onto their better free agents, they did lose Erik Cole (an important goal-getter for them) and may yet lose others.
Montreal's slight gains get bigger compared to this relative rival who looked to replace Cole cheaply through Ponikarovsky, Brent and Anthony Stewart. Cheap replacements rarely work and these I feel make their forward attack even more hodge podge than it ever has been. Carolina's steps back should give Montreal some breathing space.
In: Tim Brent, Boucher, Ponikarovsky, Stewart
Out: Cole
The New Jersey Devils
The Devils stand in a category alone. The best team in the NHL from late December on can't be pooled with the Leafs and Panthers of this league. They must be considered a serious rival for all the reasons they have been a serious rival to everyone in the East for two decades.
Interesting then that New Jersey's balance ledger is empty. A few pretty insignificant resignings point to the Devils standing pat. The Parise signing is the biggest factor in NJ and it seems like the higher means they'll be able to get that done.
Adding basically the best all around LW in the game to any team would be scary. To add him to the team that surged so strongly at the end of 2010-11 is a bit scary.
I'd think Montreal needs to think of NJ as a serious playoff rival this year, just another team added to the peloton for those last few spots.
In:
Out:
The stragglers
The 5 remaining teams in the East should be just that come April - the 5 remaining teams in the East. Some have tried hard to make steps (Florida) and some have stood virtually still (Ottawa, NYI). I'm sure the Leafs Nation will implore us to consider them a new rival, but it's hard to see how adding two injured/injury prone centres really answers the glaring deficiency they had, even if Cody Franson is a very handsome pick up. Tobalev also pointed out that the Monster/Reimer proposition should be an interesting one.
On balance
Keeping in mind that there's still many summer days ahead to change rosters, the Habs look like they should be holding some playoff ground in the East.
The Gauthier moves (and non-moves, I suppose) put the team in a slightly better position than the one they finished in.
By my count, two teams ahead of them distanced themselves further (Washington, Pittsburgh and the three others ahead probably did little enough damage to stay ahead. IN the pack that should occupy 6-10 in the East, Montreal looks competitive. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buffalo or NYR overtake, but Carolina should slip behind the Habs, and NJ likely won't overtake the Habs without seriously damaging the record of Philly or NYR.
I still believe that Pierre must do more from now till autumn's onset. Beyond replacing Halpern, which will happen as it always does, Gauthier should probably seek to supplement his backline and even add another forward that can score. There are plenty of attractive targets left in the UFA pool (Babchuk, Frolov, Miettinen, Stillman) and teams like NJ might need to trade yet.
I'm pleased , however, that Gauthier has put himself in a decent position four days into free agency. With money yet to spend, he is in touch and could credibly overtake some rivals here. This in itself is a positive thing, as mad signings (Randy McKay) might often have the opposite effect.
Out: James Wisnieski, Roman Hamrlik, Benoit Pouliot, Alex Auld
On the surface, this is Cole for Pouliot + cash and Budaj for Auld. Both moves are fine with me, even if I still think Pouliot has a special talent that I wish was a few more divisions away.
On the surface, it also looks like the Habs have created a hole on defence.
Of course they have (Hamrlik and Wisniewski were #1 and #2 at times last season), but the additions don't account for Andrei Markov who was essentially "not there" last year and that of Alexei Emelin.
Markov will easily plug the gap left by the Wizz (who did a bang up job of trying to fill Markov's position in his absence). Hamrlik, however, will be missed. Weber and Emelin are not at Roman's level yet, not even as a committee, so this is a subtraction as it stands.
Overall then, Montreal has taken a small step back so far on the backline, and taken a decent step forward up front. Overall, they look a slightly better team. Compared to themselves.
But once again, it's important not to take this situation in isolation. Just because Montreal adds 8 goals at forward doesn't mean a spot in the standings. That can't be determined without looking at the rivals and how they performed.
The teams ahead of the Habs
Last year, 5 teams beat the Habs by a fair margin in the East. Washington, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Boston and Tampa Bay. All 5 teams were active in the past few weeks and will likely keep tweaking.
The Washington Capitals, winners of the East last season may be the most improved of all. The Caps overpaid to improve their forward depth (Brouwer, Ward), but it is still improved. On top of that, they added Hamrlik and upgraded on Semyon Varlamov by stealing Tomas Vokoun from the rest of the league. Add to this the fact that Washington can claim their own "Gomezes" (players who can't go anywhere but up) with Ovechkin, Green and Backstrom coming off quiet years.
In my opinion, Washington won't be caught or overtaken by the Habs with the moves and rosters as they stand.
In: Brouwer, Joel Ward, Hamrlik, Vokoun, Potulny, Halpern
Out: Varlamov, Boyd Gordon, Andrew Gordon, Sturm, Bradley
Philadelphia made waves early with their shock trades of Carter and Richards, but true to form added the salary right back in the form of Bryzgalov and Jagr.
The biggest difference in Philadelphia should be Bryzgalov, who, while overpaid, is a vast improvement over Leighton and Boucher. It's hard to know how much Philly gave up at the front through Richards, Carter and later Leino; but Voracek, Jagr and co. might lighten the blow at least a bit.
Overall, I still feel schizo Holmgren downgraded his team by going old and young at the same time. But the downgrade isn't to the point where I feel Philly will struggle to make the playoffs.
In: Bryzgalov, Voracek, Simonds, Schenn, Lilja, Talbot, Jagr
Out: Carter, Richards, Powe, Boucher, Leino, Carcillo, O'Donnell
Pittsburgh have been quieter till now. Happy it seems to wait the return of their cavalry. If people in Montreal are excited about having Markov back and Gomez having nowhere to go but up, imagine the Pens fans delight at the thought of adding to last season's plucky team through Crosby and Malkin.
Pittsburgh also quietly switched Talbot and Rupp for Steve Sullivan, who when healthy should find a place beside one of the big two.
It's perhaps not headline stuff, but the returning wounded improve Pittsburgh far beyond anything Montreal could have hoped to do anyway. This team will once again challenge for the top and the Cup barring injuries again.
In: Sullivan, Valabik
Out: Talbot, Rupp
Chiarelli must have had his day with the Stanley Cup on Friday because he did very little indeed. It says he lost Valabik, but he wasn't a big league Bruins. Essentially the balance was Ryder for Pouliot. Payment aside, this is a downgrade. While both have been Montreal playoff benchees, Ryder at least thrives with Julien. Pouliot may or may not.
Boston's minor downgrade may be enough for Montreal to challenge. Remember after all, that Boston only pipped the Habs at the end thanks to a certain few head-to-head encounters where focus was lost.
In: Pouliot
Out: Ryder, Valabik
In his second season, Stevie Y is slower out the gates. He changed his back-up goalie (Garon for Smith) and added some depth D, but lost Bergenheim and Gagne and may have to fight off offers for Stamkos.
Tampa improved by leaps and bounds last season and will still be fueled forward by Stamkos and Hedman, but questions about how much longer Roloson can perform, not to mention how much further Lecavalier will slide, point to some vulnerabilities there for rival Eastern clubs.
I think on balance Tampa will hold their position, at least for another season. It wouldn't be all that surprising if the Habs gained on this outfit, though.
In: Gervais, Garon, Gilroy
Out: Smith, Bergenheim, Gagne, Jones
The teams around the Habs
Montreal posted a 6th place finish last season. 6th place last season, indeed any season, is indication of membership in the competitive pack, the peloton.
The Buffalo Sabres were the 7th place team last spring. They actually matched the Canadiens 96 points and did it thanks to a a flourish at the finish. The Habs beat them on the tie break of 44 wins vs. 43 wins.
All that to say that these two teams are quite close. In fact, they've been leap-frogging each other for a few seasons since the lockout.
So far from being inconsequential, the moves Buffalo made (and makes) will directly affect the Habs. This is quite a pity for the Habs, because like Washington, Buffalo went out and made some pretty substantial and positive moves.
Their defence alone merits their inclusion in any list of winners from this period. While ejecting Steve Montador and Chris Butler, the Sabres added Robyn Regehr and Christian Ehrhoff. This makes for an interesting unit at the back, and an improved one.
On top of that, the Sabres overpaid to add Ville Leino - a feisty and combative forward who would have been considered an answer to the Habs "power forward" need himself. To make space, they let Tim Connolly go, but this shouldn't be too traumatic for the team.
On balance, this makes Buffalo better. Factor in a likely return to league elite numbers for Ryan Miller behind that defence and the Habs should be prepared to look at the Sabres ahead of them in the standings for a while.
In: Regehr, Kotalik, Ehrhoff, Leino
Out: Butler, Montador, Mancari, Connolly
The Rangers were also close to the Habs. In fact, Montreal only beat them on the strength of 3 extra OTLs. Adherents of Corsi and the like will also question NYR's inferiority in light of the +35 goal differential they put up vs. +7 for Montreal.
New York didn't go wild as they have done in the past, but they scored the big goal. After letting Chris Drury go to create space, the Rangers nabbed Brad Richards to play with Marian Gaborik. This is a big improvement for a team whose lack was goal-making. The Rangers improvement is substantial and bigger I feel than a Pouliot upgrade at this point.
In: Richards, Rupp
Out: Drury, Gilroy
Finally, the Carolina Hurricanes. 5 points back of the Habs, the Canes challenged for the playoff spot right to the end.
And here finally there is some good news for the Habs. Though the Canes hung onto their better free agents, they did lose Erik Cole (an important goal-getter for them) and may yet lose others.
Montreal's slight gains get bigger compared to this relative rival who looked to replace Cole cheaply through Ponikarovsky, Brent and Anthony Stewart. Cheap replacements rarely work and these I feel make their forward attack even more hodge podge than it ever has been. Carolina's steps back should give Montreal some breathing space.
In: Tim Brent, Boucher, Ponikarovsky, Stewart
Out: Cole
The New Jersey Devils
The Devils stand in a category alone. The best team in the NHL from late December on can't be pooled with the Leafs and Panthers of this league. They must be considered a serious rival for all the reasons they have been a serious rival to everyone in the East for two decades.
Interesting then that New Jersey's balance ledger is empty. A few pretty insignificant resignings point to the Devils standing pat. The Parise signing is the biggest factor in NJ and it seems like the higher means they'll be able to get that done.
Adding basically the best all around LW in the game to any team would be scary. To add him to the team that surged so strongly at the end of 2010-11 is a bit scary.
I'd think Montreal needs to think of NJ as a serious playoff rival this year, just another team added to the peloton for those last few spots.
In:
Out:
The stragglers
The 5 remaining teams in the East should be just that come April - the 5 remaining teams in the East. Some have tried hard to make steps (Florida) and some have stood virtually still (Ottawa, NYI). I'm sure the Leafs Nation will implore us to consider them a new rival, but it's hard to see how adding two injured/injury prone centres really answers the glaring deficiency they had, even if Cody Franson is a very handsome pick up. Tobalev also pointed out that the Monster/Reimer proposition should be an interesting one.
On balance
Keeping in mind that there's still many summer days ahead to change rosters, the Habs look like they should be holding some playoff ground in the East.
The Gauthier moves (and non-moves, I suppose) put the team in a slightly better position than the one they finished in.
By my count, two teams ahead of them distanced themselves further (Washington, Pittsburgh and the three others ahead probably did little enough damage to stay ahead. IN the pack that should occupy 6-10 in the East, Montreal looks competitive. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buffalo or NYR overtake, but Carolina should slip behind the Habs, and NJ likely won't overtake the Habs without seriously damaging the record of Philly or NYR.
I still believe that Pierre must do more from now till autumn's onset. Beyond replacing Halpern, which will happen as it always does, Gauthier should probably seek to supplement his backline and even add another forward that can score. There are plenty of attractive targets left in the UFA pool (Babchuk, Frolov, Miettinen, Stillman) and teams like NJ might need to trade yet.
I'm pleased , however, that Gauthier has put himself in a decent position four days into free agency. With money yet to spend, he is in touch and could credibly overtake some rivals here. This in itself is a positive thing, as mad signings (Randy McKay) might often have the opposite effect.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
The SG Line
A Solution That Could Pay Off
Yesterday I heard there was a rumour that Scott Gomez was available for teams to trade for him. If this is news, I must blast Gauthier and his team. This should have been the case from the minute they took on the salary albatross.
I understand the media's undying faith in terrible GMs, but really, I'm not hanging much hope on a Gomez trade.
Instead, I turn to more productive lines of thinking, like who could be a better winger for Gomez than Travis Moen?
A look down the free agent list for wingers that shoot first, pass later doesn't yield much. Selanne is there, but what moment of madness would have to overcome him to choose Montreal now? Jagr is lurking, but again, why would a guy on a discount offer most of his lower salary to Revenu Quebec?
In May, we had the hope of Mike Knuble, Milan Hejduk, Brooks Laich, but as with most years, the solid choices just get resigned by their own outfits.
When I look down the list I don't see much in terms of volume, but there is one goalscorer who I think would benefit from a change of scene and someone who passes first, passes more later.
That guy is Simon Gagne.
Despite the memories of far-off 40-goal seasons and the familiarity of his name in the injury reports, Simon is still only 31 years old.
The thing I like most about Gagne is that he is a goalscorer first and foremost. Once a perennial 30-goal man, he even chipped in 17 in a curtailed season that one would call below average. May not sound like much, but considering that we're trying to upgrade on Pouliot here, it's not irrelevant.
Gagne has also shown the ability to play with many different players and take on many different roles (something vital on a Jacques Martin team) and was at his most productive with solid set up man (Forsberg or Briere, take your pick).
I don't know why Tampa didn't work out for him that well, but it may simply have been a bad fit. I'm willing to bet a reduced salary on it.
Put Gagne with Gomez and you'd have the SG line, I think it would be pretty productive, don't you?
1st period, 12:28 - Simon Gagne (28) (Scott Gomez, Some Guy)
I understand the media's undying faith in terrible GMs, but really, I'm not hanging much hope on a Gomez trade.
Instead, I turn to more productive lines of thinking, like who could be a better winger for Gomez than Travis Moen?
A look down the free agent list for wingers that shoot first, pass later doesn't yield much. Selanne is there, but what moment of madness would have to overcome him to choose Montreal now? Jagr is lurking, but again, why would a guy on a discount offer most of his lower salary to Revenu Quebec?
In May, we had the hope of Mike Knuble, Milan Hejduk, Brooks Laich, but as with most years, the solid choices just get resigned by their own outfits.
When I look down the list I don't see much in terms of volume, but there is one goalscorer who I think would benefit from a change of scene and someone who passes first, passes more later.
That guy is Simon Gagne.
Despite the memories of far-off 40-goal seasons and the familiarity of his name in the injury reports, Simon is still only 31 years old.
The thing I like most about Gagne is that he is a goalscorer first and foremost. Once a perennial 30-goal man, he even chipped in 17 in a curtailed season that one would call below average. May not sound like much, but considering that we're trying to upgrade on Pouliot here, it's not irrelevant.
Gagne has also shown the ability to play with many different players and take on many different roles (something vital on a Jacques Martin team) and was at his most productive with solid set up man (Forsberg or Briere, take your pick).
I don't know why Tampa didn't work out for him that well, but it may simply have been a bad fit. I'm willing to bet a reduced salary on it.
Put Gagne with Gomez and you'd have the SG line, I think it would be pretty productive, don't you?
1st period, 12:28 - Simon Gagne (28) (Scott Gomez, Some Guy)
Monday, November 03, 2008
KHL Poachers
North American Elitist Attitude Not Helping
KHL Poachers
North American Elitist Attitude Not Helping
It's happened to us. We've lost a Russian. One that was actually in our plans.
Back in May, I touched upon the topic of losing Europeans and Russians from the NHL on a couple of occasions (here and here).
Since then, some of the predictions have, well predictably, come to fruition. The biggest scalp for the KHL remains Jaromir Jagr, who even in his late 30s would be an offensive juggernaut in this season's NHL. And an almost as impressive catch was young Alexander Radulov, already an NHL star a mere season and half into a career. In truth, the NHL has been bleeding quite a lot of talent since May.
North American response
Back in July, I touched upon the issue again. This time it was because I was incensed by the attitude I saw permeating the big-wigs in charge of holding this NHL of ours together. They took a very elitist and dismissive tone that I didn't think could be helpful in any way:
The NHL can stay on their high horse if they want to, but I'm not about to agree with them. For one thing, the fact that only 26 Russians play in the NHL today (compared to 77 in 2001) shoots down any retort in my mind. There is no way anyone could convince me that a member of Russia's National taxi squad (back-ups) would not play better and more exciting hockey than most of the guys on Vancouver, Florida, LA or Phoenix. I don't think an NHL coach would be able to keep a straight face while saying he'd rather play Vernon Fiddler than Radulov or Aleksey Morozov.
Valentenko and the Canadiens
Late last week, it was Pavel Valentenko (heir apparent to Francis Bouillon) who would fly the coop. At this stage of his career, it is true he is a mere AHL farmhand, but looking at things that way is naive and deceptive. My assessment of the situation is that Valentenko was one season at most from being a capable defender on the Canadiens (a team currently setting their standards a little higher than most). What that probably means is that he could play for some NHL teams right now. That in itself (if you accept my talent evaluation of Pavel) means that the Canadiens lost more than a Bulldog, they lost potential trade currency as well.
The situation is actually compounded for the Canadiens because 2 of their other top 4 prospects on defence are actually also plying their trade in Mother Russia at the moment. The famous name for casual Habs fans is that of Alexei Emelin – he who is already a fixture on the World Champion Russian National team. The other player is Konstantin Korneev – an impressive offensive defenceman.
At a time when Canadiens fans are coming to realise that Ryan O'Byrne, while big, may not be Mike Komisarek II, and Yannick Weber still needs time a mere 5 months removed from the Memorial Cup. It certainly would be nice to call upon the services of Emelin or Korneev right now. Never mind that in the future it would never hurt to have a bit more choice to put together a seven-man crew that does not include Brisebois, Dandenault or in all likelihood Bouillon or Hamrlik (obviously this is years away).
Following the Valentenko manoeuvre, I saw some of the very same North America elitism around. I point you here to my esteemed fellow blogger Arpon Basu (who normally I agree with, but not today). He had this to say as he waved Valentenko good riddance:
Valentenko's decision was the right one financially, I think. Without much doubt. After all, he is playing against a loaded deck when the Canadiens dress two players worse than himself and those ahead of him in the queue for a spot on a near-nightly basis. And to say that he will be banished to the KHL forever as he suggests is fine for now. But it will be an attitude the NHL will find hard to stand by once the exodus intensifies.
Arpon's basis for this statement, to be fair was a thesis that the KHL was more unstable and could collapse over the coming years and the salary structure with it. But, even this I find too simple.
The KHL plans
You see the KHL has their sights set on bigger things. And to be frank, they have better leadership with which to achieve their goals than does the NHL. Fetisov, a pioneer of international and Russian NHL hockey knows more than marketing textbooks:
For one thing, Russia is trying to change its image. And sports is one of the ways it has targeted to do this. This comprehensive piece from the New York Times gives some good background on ways in which the central government, and indeed the President Putin himself has played a role in this (it is essential reading for anyone who shares my view or intends to slug it out in an argument over it):
That's why this quote, which holds true for the moment (5 months into a new league), is frustrating to see from someone who should know better:
It is at once terribly dismissive and also lacking a bit of imagination. Yes, Ray Emery, Radivojevic and Stumpel are over there. But consider for a moment all the Russian talent never exposed to North American hockey fans (Emelin and Korneev come to mind).
The future
Lose Valentenko and I lose perspective?
It's a fair point. This stuff, though, is not really about Valentenko. Yes, his leaving costs the Habs a chance at not playing Patrice, but the current open door to Russian millions is far more of a concern considering the core of our team (Kovalev, Markov, Kostitsyn).
And, though the KHL is considerably shaky, even on the best days through its existence. Personally, I don't think it really matter whether the KHL survives or not. I think, what the NHL could experience is the generation of super clubs such as CSKA Moscow, Avangard Omsk, AK Bars Kazan. Frankly, if the NHL is relying on the KHL folding, it should realise that certain mega clubs within it are aiming to become as strong as the mighty Red Wings.
Looking beyond the sheltered North American view of the sporting world and its 5 sports, I look to football (the real version). There, the English Premiership currently enjoys top status in the world (revenue and player salary-wise). But saying that obscures the fact that there are really only 4 mega clubs in England with a couple more that could even hope to bridge the gap one day. The other European countries have their mega clubs too, Milan (X2), Roma, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich. The success of these clubs is barely tied at all anymore to the success of Serie A, La Liga or the Bundesliga.
Hockey too, if the KHL clubs are left to poach, will go this way too. The difference with football is that the NHL operates in a system that props up its weaker members to sustain the integrity of the current league alignment.
The attitude taken by the NHL leadership here only promises to let this situation get out of control. It is appeasement in the face of real power. Reinforcing their laissez-faire attitude when the commissioner needs to do a good few days work here is not helpful either, I feel.
So, instead of dismissing these consecutive events as silly curiosities. I think we (and hopefully someone with power to do something) will face reality: what will we do to help our franchises hold onto the top talent in the world?
More importantly for us, where will the Canadiens be when CSKA (operating with a much looser cap structure) come looking for Andrei Markov?
In related news, I stumbled upon this little piece as I was doing due diligence for the current one. It appears Young Perezhogin is no longer banished in some fans' minds. I guess 17 goals in 23 games will do that...
Back in May, I touched upon the topic of losing Europeans and Russians from the NHL on a couple of occasions (here and here).
Since then, some of the predictions have, well predictably, come to fruition. The biggest scalp for the KHL remains Jaromir Jagr, who even in his late 30s would be an offensive juggernaut in this season's NHL. And an almost as impressive catch was young Alexander Radulov, already an NHL star a mere season and half into a career. In truth, the NHL has been bleeding quite a lot of talent since May.
North American response
Back in July, I touched upon the issue again. This time it was because I was incensed by the attitude I saw permeating the big-wigs in charge of holding this NHL of ours together. They took a very elitist and dismissive tone that I didn't think could be helpful in any way:
"We don't view them as a threat," (Bill Daly) said. "We still believe the best hockey players in the world will continue to want to play in the NHL."
The NHL can stay on their high horse if they want to, but I'm not about to agree with them. For one thing, the fact that only 26 Russians play in the NHL today (compared to 77 in 2001) shoots down any retort in my mind. There is no way anyone could convince me that a member of Russia's National taxi squad (back-ups) would not play better and more exciting hockey than most of the guys on Vancouver, Florida, LA or Phoenix. I don't think an NHL coach would be able to keep a straight face while saying he'd rather play Vernon Fiddler than Radulov or Aleksey Morozov.
Valentenko and the Canadiens
Late last week, it was Pavel Valentenko (heir apparent to Francis Bouillon) who would fly the coop. At this stage of his career, it is true he is a mere AHL farmhand, but looking at things that way is naive and deceptive. My assessment of the situation is that Valentenko was one season at most from being a capable defender on the Canadiens (a team currently setting their standards a little higher than most). What that probably means is that he could play for some NHL teams right now. That in itself (if you accept my talent evaluation of Pavel) means that the Canadiens lost more than a Bulldog, they lost potential trade currency as well.
The situation is actually compounded for the Canadiens because 2 of their other top 4 prospects on defence are actually also plying their trade in Mother Russia at the moment. The famous name for casual Habs fans is that of Alexei Emelin – he who is already a fixture on the World Champion Russian National team. The other player is Konstantin Korneev – an impressive offensive defenceman.
At a time when Canadiens fans are coming to realise that Ryan O'Byrne, while big, may not be Mike Komisarek II, and Yannick Weber still needs time a mere 5 months removed from the Memorial Cup. It certainly would be nice to call upon the services of Emelin or Korneev right now. Never mind that in the future it would never hurt to have a bit more choice to put together a seven-man crew that does not include Brisebois, Dandenault or in all likelihood Bouillon or Hamrlik (obviously this is years away).
Following the Valentenko manoeuvre, I saw some of the very same North America elitism around. I point you here to my esteemed fellow blogger Arpon Basu (who normally I agree with, but not today). He had this to say as he waved Valentenko good riddance:
"But what I find difficult to believe is that Valentenko was unable to convince his family that in the long-term, staying the course with his NHL career was the right move here."
Valentenko's decision was the right one financially, I think. Without much doubt. After all, he is playing against a loaded deck when the Canadiens dress two players worse than himself and those ahead of him in the queue for a spot on a near-nightly basis. And to say that he will be banished to the KHL forever as he suggests is fine for now. But it will be an attitude the NHL will find hard to stand by once the exodus intensifies.
Arpon's basis for this statement, to be fair was a thesis that the KHL was more unstable and could collapse over the coming years and the salary structure with it. But, even this I find too simple.
The KHL plans
You see the KHL has their sights set on bigger things. And to be frank, they have better leadership with which to achieve their goals than does the NHL. Fetisov, a pioneer of international and Russian NHL hockey knows more than marketing textbooks:
“I warned Gary Bettman five years ago,” he tells me, referring to the N.H.L. commissioner. “You’ve got your business model, but if you take the best players out of Europe and Russia for cheap — you’ll kill the game, and your own market.” North America, Fetisov argues, is “a small hockey market.” He continues: “For years I’ve tried to tell the Americans to think big. Look beyond Russia and Europe. What about Asia? China? Even in India they play field hockey. Why can’t the N.H.L. see it? They’re afraid. They want to preserve their market. Now it’s too late. We’re gonna take our market share. And you’ll see, it’ll be good for the game.”
For one thing, Russia is trying to change its image. And sports is one of the ways it has targeted to do this. This comprehensive piece from the New York Times gives some good background on ways in which the central government, and indeed the President Putin himself has played a role in this (it is essential reading for anyone who shares my view or intends to slug it out in an argument over it):
"In 2002, Fetisov returned to Russia at Putin’s behest, to head up Rossport, a new federal agency dedicated to reviving the country’s sports infrastructure."
That's why this quote, which holds true for the moment (5 months into a new league), is frustrating to see from someone who should know better:
"As long as the KHL is around, it will be a haven for washed up NHL guys looking to extend their careers by being overpaid over there, or as a second chance for guys who have been banished like Ray Emery."
It is at once terribly dismissive and also lacking a bit of imagination. Yes, Ray Emery, Radivojevic and Stumpel are over there. But consider for a moment all the Russian talent never exposed to North American hockey fans (Emelin and Korneev come to mind).
The future
Lose Valentenko and I lose perspective?
It's a fair point. This stuff, though, is not really about Valentenko. Yes, his leaving costs the Habs a chance at not playing Patrice, but the current open door to Russian millions is far more of a concern considering the core of our team (Kovalev, Markov, Kostitsyn).
And, though the KHL is considerably shaky, even on the best days through its existence. Personally, I don't think it really matter whether the KHL survives or not. I think, what the NHL could experience is the generation of super clubs such as CSKA Moscow, Avangard Omsk, AK Bars Kazan. Frankly, if the NHL is relying on the KHL folding, it should realise that certain mega clubs within it are aiming to become as strong as the mighty Red Wings.
Looking beyond the sheltered North American view of the sporting world and its 5 sports, I look to football (the real version). There, the English Premiership currently enjoys top status in the world (revenue and player salary-wise). But saying that obscures the fact that there are really only 4 mega clubs in England with a couple more that could even hope to bridge the gap one day. The other European countries have their mega clubs too, Milan (X2), Roma, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich. The success of these clubs is barely tied at all anymore to the success of Serie A, La Liga or the Bundesliga.
Hockey too, if the KHL clubs are left to poach, will go this way too. The difference with football is that the NHL operates in a system that props up its weaker members to sustain the integrity of the current league alignment.
The attitude taken by the NHL leadership here only promises to let this situation get out of control. It is appeasement in the face of real power. Reinforcing their laissez-faire attitude when the commissioner needs to do a good few days work here is not helpful either, I feel.
So, instead of dismissing these consecutive events as silly curiosities. I think we (and hopefully someone with power to do something) will face reality: what will we do to help our franchises hold onto the top talent in the world?
More importantly for us, where will the Canadiens be when CSKA (operating with a much looser cap structure) come looking for Andrei Markov?
In related news, I stumbled upon this little piece as I was doing due diligence for the current one. It appears Young Perezhogin is no longer banished in some fans' minds. I guess 17 goals in 23 games will do that...
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Newsflash: A North American Pundit Notices Other Leagues
You all know what I think about the KHL – it is for real. I have written about it more than once, most recently in July after the landmark Jagr (not Radulov) signing.
Someone from the Hockey News has finally acknowledged the issue of a rival league. Beginning in an almost self-effacing way, Ken Campbell admits that he (and THN) had been a bit naive recently. Oh, but not too wrong.
Anyway, the article is worth a read, if only for the interesting Semin case and Radulov parallel.
It's nice to see someone else giving this important issue for the NHL the light of day. To say that THN considers european leagues a legitimate threat would be overstatement, as you can see with comments like this one:
I'll say it again. Jagr was no joke. Russian teams are not a joke.
Imagine if Sweden also opened up a competitor league with room for millionaires, then the impact on NHL talent would be felt again. Finland, also. These countries are not the CHL, which is entirely limited to junior and mostly in smaller markets. These leagues are major sporting institutions in the countries they play in, and they are based in some of the metropolises of Scandinavia, Eastern Europe and Russia.
Unless the NHL gets off its high horse and gets some sort of agreement, the transfer madness can only hurt one league – and that's the one monopolising most of the hockey talent at the moment. The depth of the league will be challenged, as will the size of it.
Someone from the Hockey News has finally acknowledged the issue of a rival league. Beginning in an almost self-effacing way, Ken Campbell admits that he (and THN) had been a bit naive recently. Oh, but not too wrong.
Anyway, the article is worth a read, if only for the interesting Semin case and Radulov parallel.
It's nice to see someone else giving this important issue for the NHL the light of day. To say that THN considers european leagues a legitimate threat would be overstatement, as you can see with comments like this one:
The Canadian Hockey League owners make a ton of money on the backs of teenagers who make less per hour than the kid who flips burgers at McDonald’s, but they have found a way to live with the NHL raiding its ranks. Not so with Europe, a body the NHL is quickly finding more like dealing with seven individual federations than one.
I'll say it again. Jagr was no joke. Russian teams are not a joke.
Imagine if Sweden also opened up a competitor league with room for millionaires, then the impact on NHL talent would be felt again. Finland, also. These countries are not the CHL, which is entirely limited to junior and mostly in smaller markets. These leagues are major sporting institutions in the countries they play in, and they are based in some of the metropolises of Scandinavia, Eastern Europe and Russia.
Unless the NHL gets off its high horse and gets some sort of agreement, the transfer madness can only hurt one league – and that's the one monopolising most of the hockey talent at the moment. The depth of the league will be challenged, as will the size of it.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Magnetogorsk Millions: The Rise of a Rival League
Funny thing timing. As we wrap up the Canadiens reviews this week, we are coming to a very important trio of Russian/Belarussian players at the core of the Canadiens recent and future success. Simultaneously, the very real possibility of a significant drop in Russian talent is growing.
Back in May, we spoke about the lack of transfer agreement and how it could harm the NHL in terms of reduced influx of Russian talent. Now, we are seeing real competition for established NHL talent, Russian or not.
This has been coming for some time.
The Russian league, in its old guise as the Super League, was the one league that was poised and ready for the last NHL work stoppage. Players by the busload went to play throughout Russia in 2004-05. AK Bars Kazan from that year iced Lecavalier, Richards, Kovalchuk, Heatley, Kozlov and Kovalev in what (barring a reversal in the salary cap) will likely be the best top two lines ever to be seen again. The European Champions of that year, Avangard Omsk, got it done with star Russians and one Jaromir Jagr. While the Russian champions were thankful to have Datsyuk and Afinogeniv back in the fold to help Ovechkin win the title.
A lot has happened in the NHL since that season.
For one thing, there is a salary cap, which limits the buying power of the biggest teams so outfits in non-traditional (to be polite) hockey markets can bear the weight of competition. For another, the NHL has grown wealthier and, as a result, more arrogant. The arrogance can be witnessed in the league's dealings with and declarations about rival leagues like the new KHL (Continental Hockey League) and national associations in Europe, and in quote like this:
But, it's a dangerous line the NHL is walking. While it probably garners many laughs and guffaws to mock the KHL and the players who make their way there, the truth is the KHL is poaching real talent now. Jagr, for one, was still a scoring star in the league, which is still largely starved of players of his skill and stature. Ray Emery, for all his problems and jokes about him, would be the best goaltending talent on more than a dozen NHL teams (Mike Smith?). And, Alexander Radulov was one of the only half decent things going on in Nashville (an otherwise flailing operation), as far as the NHL was concerned. Add to this list the players that will never come to the NHL (because of the new aversion to drafting Russians), but would outplay the vast majority of second-line talent in the league in a Moscow minute, and the argument builds.
Something else a lot of North Americans need to understand when it comes to the threat of the KHL is that we are not looking at league vs. league here. Of course it is true that the NHL is still the biggest and most powerful hockey league in the world, and will probably remain that way for the forseeable future. However, the biggest 30 hockey clubs in the world are not those in NHL cities alone. Avangard Omsk, owned by Chelsea billionaire Roman Abramovich, could only be dwarfed in buying power by Detroit, Toronto, NYR and the very biggest NHL clubs. Omsk, along with AK Bars Kazan, Moscow Dynamo and a few others are far bigger clubs than Nashville, Atlanta, Florida and the like. In addition, consider that the power structure of the leagues will also be altered, inevitably, by the players which they are able to draw in. The Russian powerhouses are big players and deserve the respect of the NHL.
Ultimately, its my feeling that if the NHL lets the Omsks and Kazans to "wedge" their proverbial feet in the door, the league could be facing wide open movement in the not too distant future. This article from the Sporting News provides an excellent thesis on why this could be the case.
What for the future with Russia?
Unless the NHL comes out from behind its arrogance and makes sincere efforts to negotiate with the KHL as a peer, the losses of players like Jagr could conceivably continue.
Even if the only problem to come from a lack of treaty is the loss of fresh Russian talent to the league, the NHL would suffer. It only takes a glance at the NHL award winners and nominees from this season to understand the important role that Russia has played in changing the face of the North American league:
– Ovechkin walked away with the Maurice Richard trophy, and was only challenged for the Art Ross, Pearson and the Hart trophy by his fellow Russian, Evgeni Malkin
– Pavel Datsyuk won the Selke trophy and the Lady Byng, not to mention the Stanley Cup
– Nabokov didn't win the Vezina, but could have (he was on the first all-star team)
– Kovalev joined Ovechkin, Malkin, Nabokov as the Russians on the first or second all-star teams
– No Russian defenceman garnered Norris nominations or All-Star nods, but we know Markov is better than Brian Campbell, and I imagine people in Dallas know Zubov is too
– 3 of the top 5 scorers were Russians, 5 of the top 11
– 3 of the top 4 goalscorers were Russians
Is it an anomaly that so many Russians are leading the way in scoring in the NHL? Perhaps, but since they have been coming into the league, we have already witnessed players like Pavel Bure, Sergei Fedorov and Alexander Mogilny. I think this new crop is a continuation from those traditions. And, with a flourishing league of their own, there is no good reason to believe that the tradition of Russian hockey talent won't continue
I believe the NHL should make efforts to come to some agreement with the KHL and the Russian Association, primarily because I don't relish a future NHL without Russians. I can't imagine going backwards to a time without exciting (and sometimes enigmatic) Russians. Even this year, if you took Russians out of the mix, a league trying to reinvent itself as a scoring bonanza would be left with Brad Boyes and his 43 goals as the number 3 attraction. It seems the North American skaters are simply not as creative at beating the North American goalies and defencemen (who consequently are the best). What's more, if the NHL stood by its 30-team model in the absence of Russian talent, the days of free-flowing scoring hockey will be over sooner than they began.
And for Europe?
The Russian league and Russian gulf also provide problems for the NHL as a precedent for other European leagues to follow. I've heard on pretty good authority that the next strongest league and association (Sweden) is watching this Russian situation the closest, and will be making their plan of attack for the NHL based on that experience. The Czechs are already disgruntled. And, the Swiss have the money and the momentum to make waves too.
Whereas the efflux of Russians from the league would be a major step backwards, the loss of Europeans of all nationalities would be catastrophic.
Leadership
In times of flux, it helps ton have good leaders to take the helm. It remains to be seen as to whether Bettman can handle this crisis. But, frankly, why should it be his responsibility. If there were a leader among the NHL owners with an ounce of foresight, this moment could have been headed off ages ago. It remains their interests under threat (albeit their employee Bettman is the point-man), and it is their leadership and creativity that needs to be tapped to find a solution.
I have proposed on a number of occasions that one team could realistically set transfer conditions in a treaty-free market independently of all the others, and I see no reason why this could not be pursued. I have also made no secret that I would like this team to be the Canadiens. But, for the ultimate success of the league and the quality of NHL hockey, it wouldn't matter who stepped up. Once one did, the others may follow.
For all the conjecture and ranting, the situation is still within the control of the NHL. All it will take is a little bit of modesty and sincere effort. If not, this won't be the last article written on this topic. They don't call it the thin end of a wedge for nothing...
Back in May, we spoke about the lack of transfer agreement and how it could harm the NHL in terms of reduced influx of Russian talent. Now, we are seeing real competition for established NHL talent, Russian or not.
This has been coming for some time.
The Russian league, in its old guise as the Super League, was the one league that was poised and ready for the last NHL work stoppage. Players by the busload went to play throughout Russia in 2004-05. AK Bars Kazan from that year iced Lecavalier, Richards, Kovalchuk, Heatley, Kozlov and Kovalev in what (barring a reversal in the salary cap) will likely be the best top two lines ever to be seen again. The European Champions of that year, Avangard Omsk, got it done with star Russians and one Jaromir Jagr. While the Russian champions were thankful to have Datsyuk and Afinogeniv back in the fold to help Ovechkin win the title.
A lot has happened in the NHL since that season.
For one thing, there is a salary cap, which limits the buying power of the biggest teams so outfits in non-traditional (to be polite) hockey markets can bear the weight of competition. For another, the NHL has grown wealthier and, as a result, more arrogant. The arrogance can be witnessed in the league's dealings with and declarations about rival leagues like the new KHL (Continental Hockey League) and national associations in Europe, and in quote like this:
"We don't view them as a threat," (Bill Daly) said. "We still believe the best hockey players in the world will continue to want to play in the NHL."
But, it's a dangerous line the NHL is walking. While it probably garners many laughs and guffaws to mock the KHL and the players who make their way there, the truth is the KHL is poaching real talent now. Jagr, for one, was still a scoring star in the league, which is still largely starved of players of his skill and stature. Ray Emery, for all his problems and jokes about him, would be the best goaltending talent on more than a dozen NHL teams (Mike Smith?). And, Alexander Radulov was one of the only half decent things going on in Nashville (an otherwise flailing operation), as far as the NHL was concerned. Add to this list the players that will never come to the NHL (because of the new aversion to drafting Russians), but would outplay the vast majority of second-line talent in the league in a Moscow minute, and the argument builds.
Something else a lot of North Americans need to understand when it comes to the threat of the KHL is that we are not looking at league vs. league here. Of course it is true that the NHL is still the biggest and most powerful hockey league in the world, and will probably remain that way for the forseeable future. However, the biggest 30 hockey clubs in the world are not those in NHL cities alone. Avangard Omsk, owned by Chelsea billionaire Roman Abramovich, could only be dwarfed in buying power by Detroit, Toronto, NYR and the very biggest NHL clubs. Omsk, along with AK Bars Kazan, Moscow Dynamo and a few others are far bigger clubs than Nashville, Atlanta, Florida and the like. In addition, consider that the power structure of the leagues will also be altered, inevitably, by the players which they are able to draw in. The Russian powerhouses are big players and deserve the respect of the NHL.
Ultimately, its my feeling that if the NHL lets the Omsks and Kazans to "wedge" their proverbial feet in the door, the league could be facing wide open movement in the not too distant future. This article from the Sporting News provides an excellent thesis on why this could be the case.
What for the future with Russia?
Unless the NHL comes out from behind its arrogance and makes sincere efforts to negotiate with the KHL as a peer, the losses of players like Jagr could conceivably continue.
Even if the only problem to come from a lack of treaty is the loss of fresh Russian talent to the league, the NHL would suffer. It only takes a glance at the NHL award winners and nominees from this season to understand the important role that Russia has played in changing the face of the North American league:
– Ovechkin walked away with the Maurice Richard trophy, and was only challenged for the Art Ross, Pearson and the Hart trophy by his fellow Russian, Evgeni Malkin
– Pavel Datsyuk won the Selke trophy and the Lady Byng, not to mention the Stanley Cup
– Nabokov didn't win the Vezina, but could have (he was on the first all-star team)
– Kovalev joined Ovechkin, Malkin, Nabokov as the Russians on the first or second all-star teams
– No Russian defenceman garnered Norris nominations or All-Star nods, but we know Markov is better than Brian Campbell, and I imagine people in Dallas know Zubov is too
– 3 of the top 5 scorers were Russians, 5 of the top 11
– 3 of the top 4 goalscorers were Russians
Is it an anomaly that so many Russians are leading the way in scoring in the NHL? Perhaps, but since they have been coming into the league, we have already witnessed players like Pavel Bure, Sergei Fedorov and Alexander Mogilny. I think this new crop is a continuation from those traditions. And, with a flourishing league of their own, there is no good reason to believe that the tradition of Russian hockey talent won't continue
I believe the NHL should make efforts to come to some agreement with the KHL and the Russian Association, primarily because I don't relish a future NHL without Russians. I can't imagine going backwards to a time without exciting (and sometimes enigmatic) Russians. Even this year, if you took Russians out of the mix, a league trying to reinvent itself as a scoring bonanza would be left with Brad Boyes and his 43 goals as the number 3 attraction. It seems the North American skaters are simply not as creative at beating the North American goalies and defencemen (who consequently are the best). What's more, if the NHL stood by its 30-team model in the absence of Russian talent, the days of free-flowing scoring hockey will be over sooner than they began.
And for Europe?
The Russian league and Russian gulf also provide problems for the NHL as a precedent for other European leagues to follow. I've heard on pretty good authority that the next strongest league and association (Sweden) is watching this Russian situation the closest, and will be making their plan of attack for the NHL based on that experience. The Czechs are already disgruntled. And, the Swiss have the money and the momentum to make waves too.
Whereas the efflux of Russians from the league would be a major step backwards, the loss of Europeans of all nationalities would be catastrophic.
Leadership
In times of flux, it helps ton have good leaders to take the helm. It remains to be seen as to whether Bettman can handle this crisis. But, frankly, why should it be his responsibility. If there were a leader among the NHL owners with an ounce of foresight, this moment could have been headed off ages ago. It remains their interests under threat (albeit their employee Bettman is the point-man), and it is their leadership and creativity that needs to be tapped to find a solution.
I have proposed on a number of occasions that one team could realistically set transfer conditions in a treaty-free market independently of all the others, and I see no reason why this could not be pursued. I have also made no secret that I would like this team to be the Canadiens. But, for the ultimate success of the league and the quality of NHL hockey, it wouldn't matter who stepped up. Once one did, the others may follow.
For all the conjecture and ranting, the situation is still within the control of the NHL. All it will take is a little bit of modesty and sincere effort. If not, this won't be the last article written on this topic. They don't call it the thin end of a wedge for nothing...
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
The Reshuffle: A Look At Recent NHL Moves
July is the time for player movement in the NHL. Just ask Tampa.
Bad teams make loads of manoeuvres to try and dig themselves out of the whole, Philly and the Rangers can't help themselves and other teams get involved when players that interest them come up. From a Canadiens point of view, things could have gone better, but let's not forget, things could have gone a whole lot worse as well.
Last week, I declared some winners and losers for moves made up to July 1. I had Phoenix , New Jersey, Chicago and Edmonton at the top of the heap. At the bottom, struggling for air, I put Atlanta, Ottawa, Nashville and LA. Well, another week and not too much has changed, the winners have not done so much damage as to fall from grace, nor have the losers done enough to dig themselves out from the bottom of the heap. It would be negligent not to tip the hat to Detroit, who once again took the best player available to bolster their champion roster and to note new loser addition, Philadelphia, whose GM is beginning to show he has absolutely no grasp on what it takes to build a team beyond moving players in and out.
Funny, though isn't it? There are only two teams in the NHL who one can truly look to and think dynasty – the Red Wings and the Devils. Both, despite not making 53 signings like Tampa, come out winners this off season. Both present the perfect example for any aspiring team to follow. New Jersey swooped in and added Holik and Rolston. Second line scoring and big centre checked off their list. Detroit, with few glaring holes, did correspondingly, very little – only moving to pick up the only scoring star with years ahead of him from the entire group. No bad signings, no changes for the sake of it.
Big stories
While looking at players in and out is interesting and fun, most teams make like for like changes and hope for the best. As such, the stories around the moves are few. This year was unique in some ways though, as free agency has offered up some very interesting stories and trends for comment:
1) Jagr signing in Russia
By far the most significant signing of the off-season was Jagr's move to Russia. Funny then that this move has been treated as a footnote in most accounts.
The reason I think it is so notable is because of the precedent it sets. Jagr is the first bona fide NHL star to sign in a different league. Forsberg and Naslund often threatened, but could never ignore the call of the greenback. Aleksey Morozov blazed a trail, but one would hardly class him among the stars of the league. Jaromir, on the other hand, was reasonably close to becoming the second leading scorer of all time, a perennial all-star and Art Ross threat and the core of his NHL team.
While Siberian winters don't meet with everyone's tastes, multi-million dollar contracts do. I think from here on, the threat of players moving to the rival Russian league is real. It is a worry for young prospects to full-fledged stars. What's more, the longer the NHL allows the festering wound of the partial IIHF agreement (without Russia) to linger, the greater this problem will likely become. It may not be within the decade, but at some point, it is reasonable to assume that the NHL and the Russian league will duke it out for players like the Premiership, la Liga and Serie A do in football.
2) Retirement decisions
Admittedly, the retirement precedent was set prior to this season. However, this free agent season is the first in memory where 3 of the top 10 catches would be considering retirement from the league.
By prolonging their indecision, Sundin, Selanne and Sakic have created a force in the market. The force is patient money. There are teams sitting on money at the moment that they are saving to spring on Sundin in particular, while making bit parters wait for their turn.
I am not 100% behind the opinion that Sundin has disrupted the whole league (like this guy), but you have to admit, the poor guys waiting to buy/rent their houses for the season (4th liners, minor leaguers and down) are being put through a stressful period. That being said, I don't think it is Sundin's fault team's are shaping their whole strategy around him. Besides, how sorry can I feel for a guy who is slightly disrupted in finding a house (while I live in a small apartment) ahead of playing hockey for a living for another year.
No, for me, the more interesting thing to come out of this has been the reaction of the GMs. Sather, rumoured to be in the running for Sundin, has gone ahead with what could be called makeshift moves, even in the wake of losing Jagr. Gillis in Vancouver has sat pat, dangerous considering who he's lost. Fletcher is trying desperately to fill cap space with anyone and anything to be sure there's no room for Sundin. And, Gainey has signed his RFAs and made minor deals. Fans may be frustrated with the patience their GM is showing (or not), but ultimately only patience will leave a team with enough space to sign Sundin. Nothing less.
In the future, players teetering on the edge of retirement could shape the free agent game significantly. Imagine for example that Sundin does sign, his team does well and even wins. In future years, the lesson to good GMs will be that waiting for the best player available is the best move there is. It could make free agency less of a one-day (laughably televised) extravaganza and more of a prolonged and patient game. From the money thrown in desperation at players like Malone and Finger, I wouldn't see it as a bad thing.
3) Questions about the salary floor
When I look at the Columbus Blue Jackets, I see a team with little or no plan. How could anyone rational explain the Commodore signing to me. How could signing a 14-goalscorer at first line money be spun positively. But you see, Columbus has their backs up against it. They have never drafted a great player (arguments could be made for Nash...) and rarely ever draft anyone good.
How can this team possibly be expected to pay $40+M to a team of players. It is an unreasonable request. Stack that next to the fact that the team has no history, no plan, no immediate hope for greatness and you can see why the Hossas of the world elude them. As such, the Blue Jackets are forced to throw money at subpar performers just to reach that lower limit.
In and of itself, this is not a problem, but consider that that Rick Nash contract has influenced money for 21 year-olds years on, and you can see the ripples a signing in an NHL backwater can make. Any reasonably intelligent agent will be toting Mike Commodore's contract status and statistics in his negotiations next spring. 20-goal men across the continent will want to see Umberger dough (hey Ryder got it!).
Besides forcing real talents to play in outposts, what can the NHL do to avoid this market force from creating imbalance of pay/talent ratios?
Remove the floor? Impossible, watch Nashville owners pile up the cash if they do...
I don't have the answer, I can only see the problem at the moment. I feel there must be a solution at some point though, otherwise this may create another catalyst for players to Europe.
And the Canadiens?
All that is very interesting. From an academic point of view. But, let's be honest, how does it affect the Habs?
I've mentioned the Sundin affair, and I think the Habs are doing the right thing in keeping some money for him should he become available, although he wouldn't be my first choice (Selanne, ahem). Basically, what's the rush to spend: there are no great players left, and the team is mostly in place. Gainey can finish the roster off in August or September if he really needs to.
The Jagr debacle has not affected the Canadiens yet, but it will be interesting to see where the deeply patriotic Kovalev ends after his contract expires. In 5 years, this could be an issue for Markov, too. I have voiced my opinion on creating a special team of scouts/negotiators to deal with Russia before, and it still stands. Even without the threat of player flight, the pickings from Russian draft years alone warrant this approach.
Like Jagr, small market disproportionate spending has not thrown a wrench into the works yet. But when Plekanec, Kostitsyn and Higgins are all up for their third contract, will they take less than Columbus' plumbers?
The Canadiens moves themselves have been middle of the road. The Tanguay trade was excellent, but ultimately they relieved Calgary of a headache, who has yet to prove he won't be one here (I actually think he'll be great, but am keeping my feet on the ground just now). The Grabovski trade was poor indeed – losing a potential scorer for a non-entity. The signings of RFAs have been outstanding, but the UFA activity has been lacklustre to depressing (where the balance shows Streit, Danis and Ryder in the red for Laraque and Denis in the black). The player math shows Tanguay has to replace Ryder at even strength and Streit on the PP, while we hope that the youngsters will step up to take even more responsibility.
Frankly, at this point, barring a Sundin/Selanne/Sakic signing, I'd almost hope Gainey would call it a day. I am with him and his staff about the quality of our young players. Andrei Kostitsyn in particular will be a real force to be reckoned with if he plays a full season at his post-December clip. At the back, the deletion of Brisebois almost makes up for the loss of Streit, simply by inducing the addition by subtraction trick (fingers crossed, that particular element of today's status quo is with us come October).
Looking down the list, is there anyone any of you would make a legitimate case for? Even after Samsonov?
Bad teams make loads of manoeuvres to try and dig themselves out of the whole, Philly and the Rangers can't help themselves and other teams get involved when players that interest them come up. From a Canadiens point of view, things could have gone better, but let's not forget, things could have gone a whole lot worse as well.
Last week, I declared some winners and losers for moves made up to July 1. I had Phoenix , New Jersey, Chicago and Edmonton at the top of the heap. At the bottom, struggling for air, I put Atlanta, Ottawa, Nashville and LA. Well, another week and not too much has changed, the winners have not done so much damage as to fall from grace, nor have the losers done enough to dig themselves out from the bottom of the heap. It would be negligent not to tip the hat to Detroit, who once again took the best player available to bolster their champion roster and to note new loser addition, Philadelphia, whose GM is beginning to show he has absolutely no grasp on what it takes to build a team beyond moving players in and out.
Funny, though isn't it? There are only two teams in the NHL who one can truly look to and think dynasty – the Red Wings and the Devils. Both, despite not making 53 signings like Tampa, come out winners this off season. Both present the perfect example for any aspiring team to follow. New Jersey swooped in and added Holik and Rolston. Second line scoring and big centre checked off their list. Detroit, with few glaring holes, did correspondingly, very little – only moving to pick up the only scoring star with years ahead of him from the entire group. No bad signings, no changes for the sake of it.
Big stories
While looking at players in and out is interesting and fun, most teams make like for like changes and hope for the best. As such, the stories around the moves are few. This year was unique in some ways though, as free agency has offered up some very interesting stories and trends for comment:
1) Jagr signing in Russia
By far the most significant signing of the off-season was Jagr's move to Russia. Funny then that this move has been treated as a footnote in most accounts.
The reason I think it is so notable is because of the precedent it sets. Jagr is the first bona fide NHL star to sign in a different league. Forsberg and Naslund often threatened, but could never ignore the call of the greenback. Aleksey Morozov blazed a trail, but one would hardly class him among the stars of the league. Jaromir, on the other hand, was reasonably close to becoming the second leading scorer of all time, a perennial all-star and Art Ross threat and the core of his NHL team.
While Siberian winters don't meet with everyone's tastes, multi-million dollar contracts do. I think from here on, the threat of players moving to the rival Russian league is real. It is a worry for young prospects to full-fledged stars. What's more, the longer the NHL allows the festering wound of the partial IIHF agreement (without Russia) to linger, the greater this problem will likely become. It may not be within the decade, but at some point, it is reasonable to assume that the NHL and the Russian league will duke it out for players like the Premiership, la Liga and Serie A do in football.
2) Retirement decisions
Admittedly, the retirement precedent was set prior to this season. However, this free agent season is the first in memory where 3 of the top 10 catches would be considering retirement from the league.
By prolonging their indecision, Sundin, Selanne and Sakic have created a force in the market. The force is patient money. There are teams sitting on money at the moment that they are saving to spring on Sundin in particular, while making bit parters wait for their turn.
I am not 100% behind the opinion that Sundin has disrupted the whole league (like this guy), but you have to admit, the poor guys waiting to buy/rent their houses for the season (4th liners, minor leaguers and down) are being put through a stressful period. That being said, I don't think it is Sundin's fault team's are shaping their whole strategy around him. Besides, how sorry can I feel for a guy who is slightly disrupted in finding a house (while I live in a small apartment) ahead of playing hockey for a living for another year.
No, for me, the more interesting thing to come out of this has been the reaction of the GMs. Sather, rumoured to be in the running for Sundin, has gone ahead with what could be called makeshift moves, even in the wake of losing Jagr. Gillis in Vancouver has sat pat, dangerous considering who he's lost. Fletcher is trying desperately to fill cap space with anyone and anything to be sure there's no room for Sundin. And, Gainey has signed his RFAs and made minor deals. Fans may be frustrated with the patience their GM is showing (or not), but ultimately only patience will leave a team with enough space to sign Sundin. Nothing less.
In the future, players teetering on the edge of retirement could shape the free agent game significantly. Imagine for example that Sundin does sign, his team does well and even wins. In future years, the lesson to good GMs will be that waiting for the best player available is the best move there is. It could make free agency less of a one-day (laughably televised) extravaganza and more of a prolonged and patient game. From the money thrown in desperation at players like Malone and Finger, I wouldn't see it as a bad thing.
3) Questions about the salary floor
When I look at the Columbus Blue Jackets, I see a team with little or no plan. How could anyone rational explain the Commodore signing to me. How could signing a 14-goalscorer at first line money be spun positively. But you see, Columbus has their backs up against it. They have never drafted a great player (arguments could be made for Nash...) and rarely ever draft anyone good.
How can this team possibly be expected to pay $40+M to a team of players. It is an unreasonable request. Stack that next to the fact that the team has no history, no plan, no immediate hope for greatness and you can see why the Hossas of the world elude them. As such, the Blue Jackets are forced to throw money at subpar performers just to reach that lower limit.
In and of itself, this is not a problem, but consider that that Rick Nash contract has influenced money for 21 year-olds years on, and you can see the ripples a signing in an NHL backwater can make. Any reasonably intelligent agent will be toting Mike Commodore's contract status and statistics in his negotiations next spring. 20-goal men across the continent will want to see Umberger dough (hey Ryder got it!).
Besides forcing real talents to play in outposts, what can the NHL do to avoid this market force from creating imbalance of pay/talent ratios?
Remove the floor? Impossible, watch Nashville owners pile up the cash if they do...
I don't have the answer, I can only see the problem at the moment. I feel there must be a solution at some point though, otherwise this may create another catalyst for players to Europe.
And the Canadiens?
All that is very interesting. From an academic point of view. But, let's be honest, how does it affect the Habs?
I've mentioned the Sundin affair, and I think the Habs are doing the right thing in keeping some money for him should he become available, although he wouldn't be my first choice (Selanne, ahem). Basically, what's the rush to spend: there are no great players left, and the team is mostly in place. Gainey can finish the roster off in August or September if he really needs to.
The Jagr debacle has not affected the Canadiens yet, but it will be interesting to see where the deeply patriotic Kovalev ends after his contract expires. In 5 years, this could be an issue for Markov, too. I have voiced my opinion on creating a special team of scouts/negotiators to deal with Russia before, and it still stands. Even without the threat of player flight, the pickings from Russian draft years alone warrant this approach.
Like Jagr, small market disproportionate spending has not thrown a wrench into the works yet. But when Plekanec, Kostitsyn and Higgins are all up for their third contract, will they take less than Columbus' plumbers?
The Canadiens moves themselves have been middle of the road. The Tanguay trade was excellent, but ultimately they relieved Calgary of a headache, who has yet to prove he won't be one here (I actually think he'll be great, but am keeping my feet on the ground just now). The Grabovski trade was poor indeed – losing a potential scorer for a non-entity. The signings of RFAs have been outstanding, but the UFA activity has been lacklustre to depressing (where the balance shows Streit, Danis and Ryder in the red for Laraque and Denis in the black). The player math shows Tanguay has to replace Ryder at even strength and Streit on the PP, while we hope that the youngsters will step up to take even more responsibility.
Frankly, at this point, barring a Sundin/Selanne/Sakic signing, I'd almost hope Gainey would call it a day. I am with him and his staff about the quality of our young players. Andrei Kostitsyn in particular will be a real force to be reckoned with if he plays a full season at his post-December clip. At the back, the deletion of Brisebois almost makes up for the loss of Streit, simply by inducing the addition by subtraction trick (fingers crossed, that particular element of today's status quo is with us come October).
Looking down the list, is there anyone any of you would make a legitimate case for? Even after Samsonov?
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