Newsflash: A North American Pundit Notices Other Leagues

You all know what I think about the KHL – it is for real. I have written about it more than once, most recently in July after the landmark Jagr (not Radulov) signing.

Someone from the Hockey News has finally acknowledged the issue of a rival league. Beginning in an almost self-effacing way, Ken Campbell admits that he (and THN) had been a bit naive recently. Oh, but not too wrong.

Anyway, the article is worth a read, if only for the interesting Semin case and Radulov parallel.

It's nice to see someone else giving this important issue for the NHL the light of day. To say that THN considers european leagues a legitimate threat would be overstatement, as you can see with comments like this one:

The Canadian Hockey League owners make a ton of money on the backs of teenagers who make less per hour than the kid who flips burgers at McDonald’s, but they have found a way to live with the NHL raiding its ranks. Not so with Europe, a body the NHL is quickly finding more like dealing with seven individual federations than one.

I'll say it again. Jagr was no joke. Russian teams are not a joke.

Imagine if Sweden also opened up a competitor league with room for millionaires, then the impact on NHL talent would be felt again. Finland, also. These countries are not the CHL, which is entirely limited to junior and mostly in smaller markets. These leagues are major sporting institutions in the countries they play in, and they are based in some of the metropolises of Scandinavia, Eastern Europe and Russia.

Unless the NHL gets off its high horse and gets some sort of agreement, the transfer madness can only hurt one league – and that's the one monopolising most of the hockey talent at the moment. The depth of the league will be challenged, as will the size of it.

Magnetogorsk Millions: The Rise of a Rival League

Funny thing timing. As we wrap up the Canadiens reviews this week, we are coming to a very important trio of Russian/Belarussian players at the core of the Canadiens recent and future success. Simultaneously, the very real possibility of a significant drop in Russian talent is growing.

Back in May, we spoke about the lack of transfer agreement and how it could harm the NHL in terms of reduced influx of Russian talent. Now, we are seeing real competition for established NHL talent, Russian or not.

This has been coming for some time.

The Russian league, in its old guise as the Super League, was the one league that was poised and ready for the last NHL work stoppage. Players by the busload went to play throughout Russia in 2004-05. AK Bars Kazan from that year iced Lecavalier, Richards, Kovalchuk, Heatley, Kozlov and Kovalev in what (barring a reversal in the salary cap) will likely be the best top two lines ever to be seen again. The European Champions of that year, Avangard Omsk, got it done with star Russians and one Jaromir Jagr. While the Russian champions were thankful to have Datsyuk and Afinogeniv back in the fold to help Ovechkin win the title.

A lot has happened in the NHL since that season.

For one thing, there is a salary cap, which limits the buying power of the biggest teams so outfits in non-traditional (to be polite) hockey markets can bear the weight of competition. For another, the NHL has grown wealthier and, as a result, more arrogant. The arrogance can be witnessed in the league's dealings with and declarations about rival leagues like the new KHL (Continental Hockey League) and national associations in Europe, and in quote like this:

"We don't view them as a threat," (Bill Daly) said. "We still believe the best hockey players in the world will continue to want to play in the NHL."

But, it's a dangerous line the NHL is walking. While it probably garners many laughs and guffaws to mock the KHL and the players who make their way there, the truth is the KHL is poaching real talent now. Jagr, for one, was still a scoring star in the league, which is still largely starved of players of his skill and stature. Ray Emery, for all his problems and jokes about him, would be the best goaltending talent on more than a dozen NHL teams (Mike Smith?). And, Alexander Radulov was one of the only half decent things going on in Nashville (an otherwise flailing operation), as far as the NHL was concerned. Add to this list the players that will never come to the NHL (because of the new aversion to drafting Russians), but would outplay the vast majority of second-line talent in the league in a Moscow minute, and the argument builds.

Something else a lot of North Americans need to understand when it comes to the threat of the KHL is that we are not looking at league vs. league here. Of course it is true that the NHL is still the biggest and most powerful hockey league in the world, and will probably remain that way for the forseeable future. However, the biggest 30 hockey clubs in the world are not those in NHL cities alone. Avangard Omsk, owned by Chelsea billionaire Roman Abramovich, could only be dwarfed in buying power by Detroit, Toronto, NYR and the very biggest NHL clubs. Omsk, along with AK Bars Kazan, Moscow Dynamo and a few others are far bigger clubs than Nashville, Atlanta, Florida and the like. In addition, consider that the power structure of the leagues will also be altered, inevitably, by the players which they are able to draw in. The Russian powerhouses are big players and deserve the respect of the NHL.

Ultimately, its my feeling that if the NHL lets the Omsks and Kazans to "wedge" their proverbial feet in the door, the league could be facing wide open movement in the not too distant future. This article from the Sporting News provides an excellent thesis on why this could be the case.


What for the future with Russia?

Unless the NHL comes out from behind its arrogance and makes sincere efforts to negotiate with the KHL as a peer, the losses of players like Jagr could conceivably continue.

Even if the only problem to come from a lack of treaty is the loss of fresh Russian talent to the league, the NHL would suffer. It only takes a glance at the NHL award winners and nominees from this season to understand the important role that Russia has played in changing the face of the North American league:

– Ovechkin walked away with the Maurice Richard trophy, and was only challenged for the Art Ross, Pearson and the Hart trophy by his fellow Russian, Evgeni Malkin

– Pavel Datsyuk won the Selke trophy and the Lady Byng, not to mention the Stanley Cup

– Nabokov didn't win the Vezina, but could have (he was on the first all-star team)

– Kovalev joined Ovechkin, Malkin, Nabokov as the Russians on the first or second all-star teams

– No Russian defenceman garnered Norris nominations or All-Star nods, but we know Markov is better than Brian Campbell, and I imagine people in Dallas know Zubov is too

– 3 of the top 5 scorers were Russians, 5 of the top 11

– 3 of the top 4 goalscorers were Russians


Is it an anomaly that so many Russians are leading the way in scoring in the NHL? Perhaps, but since they have been coming into the league, we have already witnessed players like Pavel Bure, Sergei Fedorov and Alexander Mogilny. I think this new crop is a continuation from those traditions. And, with a flourishing league of their own, there is no good reason to believe that the tradition of Russian hockey talent won't continue

I believe the NHL should make efforts to come to some agreement with the KHL and the Russian Association, primarily because I don't relish a future NHL without Russians. I can't imagine going backwards to a time without exciting (and sometimes enigmatic) Russians. Even this year, if you took Russians out of the mix, a league trying to reinvent itself as a scoring bonanza would be left with Brad Boyes and his 43 goals as the number 3 attraction. It seems the North American skaters are simply not as creative at beating the North American goalies and defencemen (who consequently are the best). What's more, if the NHL stood by its 30-team model in the absence of Russian talent, the days of free-flowing scoring hockey will be over sooner than they began.


And for Europe?

The Russian league and Russian gulf also provide problems for the NHL as a precedent for other European leagues to follow. I've heard on pretty good authority that the next strongest league and association (Sweden) is watching this Russian situation the closest, and will be making their plan of attack for the NHL based on that experience. The Czechs are already disgruntled. And, the Swiss have the money and the momentum to make waves too.

Whereas the efflux of Russians from the league would be a major step backwards, the loss of Europeans of all nationalities would be catastrophic.


Leadership

In times of flux, it helps ton have good leaders to take the helm. It remains to be seen as to whether Bettman can handle this crisis. But, frankly, why should it be his responsibility. If there were a leader among the NHL owners with an ounce of foresight, this moment could have been headed off ages ago. It remains their interests under threat (albeit their employee Bettman is the point-man), and it is their leadership and creativity that needs to be tapped to find a solution.

I have proposed on a number of occasions that one team could realistically set transfer conditions in a treaty-free market independently of all the others, and I see no reason why this could not be pursued. I have also made no secret that I would like this team to be the Canadiens. But, for the ultimate success of the league and the quality of NHL hockey, it wouldn't matter who stepped up. Once one did, the others may follow.


For all the conjecture and ranting, the situation is still within the control of the NHL. All it will take is a little bit of modesty and sincere effort. If not, this won't be the last article written on this topic. They don't call it the thin end of a wedge for nothing...

Look to the East: The Looming Threat of European Money

Having briefly touched upon the subject of IIHF treaties and transfer agreements in a piece more than a week ago (see The Future Habs D: Transfers and Treaties).

Interestingly for Tobalev and I, this sparked a number of conversations with people actually at the tournament and who had been reading our piece. What's more, one friend who is closer to the game than us was able to enlighten us quite a bit on this topic. He mentioned that he found our piece timely, seeing as the IIHF transfer agreement was the talk of the town in Halifax and Quebec, where the Europeans were gathered for the games.

Obviously since I wrote that last piece, the championships have ended, Russia has won and celebrated like it mattered to them and no Habs are playing hockey anymore. Even so, the transfer agreement looms over the NHL, and indeed the Canadiens off-season planning, and deserves a second look.


The talk of the tournament

At the moment, apparently most of the talk on the transfer agreement is focused on which players from the NHL will jump ship and take a payday in Russia. This is because Russian teams, already in their off-season, have been making offers to many top players in Europe and North America. The money may be such that NHL will be left with no choice but to let these players go.

Far from being the only concern for the NHL, the Czechs are already looking at not entering into a new agreement, and the same might be true of Sweden. The general feeling at the tournament, apparently, was that no agreement would be reached in the near future, at least. So, one would speculate that even the teams from other leagues in Finland, Germany and Switzerland wouldn't be far behind either once the big players drop out.

Personally, I think this is serious, and I see the absence of the agreement with the European clubs potentially affecting the league in three ways:

1) A temporary drop in Europeans across the league

2) More aggressive (and possibly longer-term) NHL contracts with flight risk players

3) A shift in power among clubs (those that can still tap European talent vs. those that resort to North Americans who would be classed as minor leaguers at the moment)


Less Europeans

A drop in the numbers of Europeans in the league could be viewed as a good or a bad thing. I can hear Don Cherry's "Let them go!", even now.

For me, I would consider it to be a large step backwards. After all, the last time the NHL was replete of Europeans, there were only 21 teams. At that time, the top teams were the top teams, but the argument could have been made that there was still not enough NHL-level talent coming out of Canada and the US (to some degree) to support so many teams. Imagine now trying to stock 30 teams with Canadian and US players only. The initial drop in play would be difficult to take. Never mind that many European players are also among the more skilled and most excellent at skating – the direction we thought the league was meant to be headed.

Interestingly, in our discussion it also came up that Russia, after all, is not currently the greatest place in the world to spend your youth. This is particularly true of the Siberian towns where the oil magnates operate their mega clubs. Other than Russians, the feeling is that no one wants to sign for more than one year in Russia right now. The lifestyle has not improved to the point for anyone to go there too long.

NHL GMs should not be resting on their laurels,though. This situation could, and will likely, change as Russian living conditions improve and as the list of overseas options includes countries like Sweden and Switzerland. Indeed, one need only ask the North Americans who have made tracks over to those leagues rather than toil in the AHL or lower leagues. We speculated about Finns and particularly Swedes (who already show their desires to return home on plenty of occasions – Naslund, Forsberg). If Sweden and Finland drop out of the agreement, the problem of losing players could get more serious.

The inevitability of the drop is real, though – even with only Russia and the Czechs on the outs. People in the know keep stating how the money coming out of the European leagues is bigger than before and those teams can afford to poach a player or two from "big" NHL clubs. The simple fact there are many times more clubs in Europe will put the onus on the NHL to stem the tide – as opposed to hoping all European clubs run dry of cash.


More aggressive contracts

An initial reaction will no doubt be to hold onto the Europeans who figure large in the plans of your club. Pittsburgh and Washington will likely ante up big for Malkin and Ovechkin, and why shouldn't they. However, teams like Montreal, New York, Dallas, etc. who are currently riding a cast of middle range European talent may be asked to pay over the odds for their players.

While the tactic of aggressive contracts to Europeans could indeed help to stem the tide of Europeans out of the NHL initially, there are only so many big contracts a team, and the league can sustain.


Power shift

Following a partial loss of talent and vain attempts to offer contracts, I see certain clubs giving up on the Euro game. Others will stick it out. This is the power shift – with access to more talented players open only to those willing to put up with the hassle. I spoke about this potential shift in power in the last piece as well. I truly believe that with any change in circumstances there comes a pressure to adapt. The teams that adapt the quickest and best will be the ones who form "dynasties" in the near future.

I cited the scouting of Detroit (particularly in Sweden) as the foundation of their rise to prominence once the NHL opened its doors wholesale to the European leagues in the early 1990s. Similarly, a team who positions itself to perform real and serious negotiations with Russian teams now – and other European teams later – will reap the harvest of European surplus fed by the exodus of Euro NHLers.

When asked, our friend in the know agreed that having someone who knows how the system works would be very valuable to any team. He noted how teams in Europe do things so differently, an NHL team trying to negotiate the situation would need an insider who knows how the system works.

"Everyone calls it the wild west cause there’s no rules, it’s all gangsters and making/taking bribes."

Really, he said, it’s just a matter of being smart and getting a good Russian (for the current situation anyway) on your side.


What now for the Habs?

Obviously, it comes back to the Canadiens. While I am concerned about the NHL as a whole in so far as it provides the Canadiens with a league to compete with the best clubs in the world; I am not overly concerned with the plight of teams who may fall down because of a resistance to change or lack of adaptability. What concerns me is that the Habs get a leg up here for the next 10 years.

In terms of current players, the Habs probably have to resign themselves to losing Grabovski. We have been hearing that the word on the street is that he is at least entertaining offers. The writing seemed on the wall for him, as he keeps coming up short on lower lines and is not likely to unseat either Koivu or Plekanec for a top line spot.

The Habs will have to make serious strategic decisions, however, about key players like the Kostitsyns (are both to be kept???), Halak, and the youngsters in the pipeline (notably Valentenko.

As for mining the Russian league for talent at the current time, my friend and I were at a loggerheads. I suspect this is because there is no right answer.

My feeling is that the Habs should take advantage of the mass of NHL clubs who are clearly shying away from Russians by having a look at what's available – or at least letting young Russians know that Montreal is interested in players who want to play for the Stanley Cup.

My friend, who not only works in hockey, watched the World Champs and just generally is much better versed in this kind of stuff than I am warns the Canadiens GM to stay away:

There’s a reason these guys don’t play in the NHL. They aren’t driven by being the best in the world, or part of the best team in the world or a need to be challenged by the best. You don’t need someone or your team who plays the game for a living and cause it’s all he knows.

While I find his argument very convincing, I still find myself looking at Detroit again and thinking about finding the Russian Kronwalls, Franzens and Zetterbergs.

I don't know. What do you all think?

If nothing else, I think we'll all be talking about this soon enough, if not just now...