Showing posts with label Oduya. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oduya. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

The Kovalchuk Deal:

Still A Win For Devils

Since yesterday, I have read a half dozen articles that showcase the Kovalchuk ruling as a headache for the Devils.

Damien Cox did some wacky math in The Spin the other day:
But you could argue Kovalchuk will, when its all said and done, cost the Devils somewhere between $150 million and $200 million in salary, fines, prospects, draft picks and players
.

Today, Pat Hickey seems to echo the line that the deal is mostly negative for the Devils too.

AS usual, i feel some of the commentators have been swept along and are missing the main point. While it's true the deal has been costly this summer (a $3 million fine and a first and 3rd round draft pick), it still is hugely beneficial to the Devils.

First, we have to debunk the fact that the Devils somehow paid
with Niclas Bergfors, Johnny Oduya, Patrice Cormier and a first-round pick for Kovalchuk. That trade (and we're not forgetting Salmela) was made for the pleasure of dressing Kovalchuk in the 2010 close to the season, nothing more. Ilya was always going to be a UFA, and if anything that's why the cost was as low as it was.


The benefit of Kovalchuk

Really though, the true benefit of this deal comes from being able to dress Kovalchuk for this season and the next 14 at the relatively cut-rate price of $6.67 million a season.

That salary for a player like Kovalchuk is a bargain by league standards at the moment. Kovalchuk hasn't scored less than 40 goals a season since his 20th birthday and has been a point-per-gamer with no supporting cast for many years. Hi salary cap mark puts him currently at the 25th highest in the league (not bad for the best goalscorer of the decade) and behind players like Thomas Vanek, Patrick Marleau and Anze Kopitar (not to mention Scott Gomez).

Now here's the best part. If the league doesn't shrink and the salary cap grows (even only to keep up with inflation) Kovalchuk's cap number will likely look better year after year as players surpass him with new contracts.

And penalties aside, there is nothing the league has done or can do to circumvent the original intent that Kovalchuk would retire whenever he wanted to, presumably long before the age of 42.

So instead of tallying Patrice Cormier and a few draft picks, tally the fact the Devils just acquired the only available superstar in the NHL and signed him to a bargain deal for his current numbers. The numbers stand to look better over the years too as salaries and caps are pushed higher or Kovalchuk retires.

There's no guaranteeing a Cup with a move like this one, but let's not paint one of the most creative deals (maybe the last creative deal) as all negative. The Devils are a better team today than they were last year with Oduya and Bergfors and their three draft picks and that's what really matters.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Tomorrow Never Knows

Into The Free Agency Void

Turn off your mind, relax and float down stream.
It is not dying, it is not dying.

Lay down all thought, surrender to the void
It is shining, it is shining.


Free agency tomorrow. Surrender to the void Habs fans.


Free agent preview

The previews for tomorrow's festivities must surely number in the thousands by now. I don't want to re-invent the wheel, so I'll make it simple. For me the most concise and useful previews were the following:

USA Today – Most popular: 25 free agents who'll draw plenty of interest

THN: The NHL's all-overlooked free agent team


Of the two, I'd most recommend the second because it eschews the more obvious diatribe about Bouwmeester, the Sedins and Gaborik – who in our hearts of hearts we all know we won't sign tomorrow anyway. Besides, the bargains in this free agency mess don't come from the top ten – where thanks to Philadelphia and New York, one always overpays.


Forwards

Unfortunately, we may be in a bit of a pickle. Even with Koivu, Kovalev and Tanguay we needed a top forward to add a second wave. If we lose all those three, we need four.

While I'm not a fan of overpayment on every player, it seems to get a star forward (with the trade route barred to us), one must. Of the top players, I'd take Koivu and Kovalev back and stick with the trade option until we find a way to pry away that premier goalscorer we need. If Tanguay finds his real value is a pay cut, I'd welcome him back too.

If it's to be done tomorrow, I'd want Gainey to be in on conversations about Hossa and Havlat with a possible look at Mikael Samuelsson. The Sedins have a lot of allure, but a package deal? How old are you guys?

In addition, to replace Kostopoulos with a more skillful option, I'd take THN's advice and look into Joel Ward:
"At 28, Ward was too old to be rookie-eligible last season (he played 11 NHL games in 2007-08). But he scored 17 goals while cast in a defensive role for the Predators, including a couple shorthanded markers. This guy can fly, adding wings to any team's forecheck."



Defence

Unlike Gainey, I'd let Komisarek go without any fight. I can't for the life of me decide why he thinks differently, but then we share different opinions of what makes a thoroughbred, after all. While everyone's worrying about Jay Bouwmeester and Big Mike, I'd be swoping for some #3/4 guys to really get a solid squad at the back.

Someone I've been hot on for ages now is Johnny Oduya of the Devils. On him, THN says it nicely:
"Do you want Johnny Oduya? Yes, you do, if you're a fan of two-way defensemen at a bargain-basement price."


In keeping with the THN advice, I also thought someone just like Christian Backman would be a very nice addition and Brisebois-signing barrier. As they say:
"Quietly efficient and ever improving, Backman is the kind of support player that every blueline needs."



Goalies

The fact is we need one for Hamilton. It could be Marc Denis, but I'd want a promise of no games in Mtl. Here I'd really veer towards the young and someone who might not mind sitting behind two or three better prospects. This isn't a July 1 priority and may come via trade as well...

A mentor for Carey Price?
How about a blanket? The guy is coddled. He doesn't need his own mentor to take up salary and dispatch Halak. He'll have his own coach and he'll have to make do.



So, sit back, relax and enjoy the fun. And remember tomorrow never never knows. The team you think is a bottom-feeder tomorrow may be a contender come April.

... play the game, existence to the end.
Of the beginning, of the beginning...

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

No Emelin: The Implications For A Weak D

Dreams of not seeing O'Byrne toss a few into Carey and Jaro's net?

Dream no more. It seems that the Canadiens have spent one of their more realistic chances at getting a professionally experienced replacement for the fumbling giant.

Emelin calls the Canadiens on their low ball
Marc De Foy of Rue Frontenac cites Don Meehan, who says his client was simply offered better remuneration and guarantees in the KHL. Read: the Canadiens low-balled Emelin with an AHL/NHL contract and he called them on it.

The immediate response is, oh no, too bad. My next response was to ask why?

Not why Emelin rejected the Canadiens low ball offer – that seems clear enough to anyone who can't count in dollars and rubles. Rather why the Canadiens didn't make a better offer. After all, this team was dismal on defence and need all the help they can get from guys not named in their 2008-09 media guide. The Canadiens also have a track record at coming up ludicrously short at free agent time.

The possible answers vary from:

1) The Habs management don't think Emelin is that good


to

2) The Habs management have a better option in place (i.e., Beauchemin or Oduya)


to the downright scary

3) They never expected him to turn them down



We probably won't know the definitive answer to this question for at least another month, but if a year in which Pavel Valentenko was allowed to fly and where Alex Henry played, a trade was made for Doug Janik and Brisebois played more than 50 games, then you might be forgiven for leaning towards option 3.

In principle, I agree with the policy of paying for value, and to avoid overpaying for unknowns. However, experience has shown me that the Canadiens are willing to pay for unreliable defence in the form of Dandenault, Patrice and even O'Byrne. I find myself asking why our managers couldn't take a chance on a young Russian known to be quite adept at defending with a rugged and tenacious reputation; why they couldn't commit to giving him a 1-year chance as one of their 5th/6th/7th defencemen.

Emelin would have been a rookie, but a mature one. Instead of promoting Subban who has played against juniors or Weber who has honed his skills against Jason Krog and the Manitoba Moose, Gainey could have employed an option who had faced Jagr, Radulov, Morozov and other grown men for seasons now. The signing would have been on a par with signing another team's 5th defenceman. The risk being that Emelin might not adapt. The benefit that he might in fact step into a bigger role.

This must surely be the end of this prospect.


Implications

The implications for the Canadiens defence do go beyond Emelin. The team currently has 4 defencemen with NHL experience under contract. One more (Weber) who could be tried. That leaves 2 spaces to be filled, and likely 3 for cover of injury.

My guess is that Gainey and co. will be signing some marginal defencemen to cover the work. After a good look around, it's more than likely that the managers will opt for familiarity and we'll be seeing Defence 2009 Edition once more.

The implications are wider than that, though. As others have suggested, this will likely leave a sour taste in the mouth of the contract makers. In other words, we shouldn't be expecting to see many Russian names come up during the draft in Montreal for our Habs. This might not be such a big problem, were it not for the fact that Russia have been perennially hanging around medal podiums in junior, youth and senior international tournaments; or that the very best players in the league at this point in time are coming from Russia – look no further than game 6 of the Stanley Cup finals.

What's more, as if the Canadiens need another geographic restriction to rule their draft day decisions – they already practice massive bias for an area that produces less hockey players than the attention suggests – Minnesota...


I have a feeling Gainey will have to shape up with his pitches, and indeed his offers, and quick if we are expecting a 100th season of play to exceed our 100th season in operation as a business.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Carey Price: Thoroughbred In The Gates?

Getting This Horse Up And Running

Is Carey a thoroughbred? Has Gainey and the team made mistakes with his development?

If the management group have committed to Carey Price in the way it seems they have, then really these points are moot.

Thanks for letting me air my frustrations on them. But now the time has come now to move onto real-world practical scenarios. This closing segment on Carey and his care treats you to some of my ideas on how things can be done better on the Canadiens, assuming a cornerstone named Price.


Back-up goaltender

It all sounds very logical – get a veteran back-up goaltender to help Carey Price develop and act as insurance in case he stumbles again. I do have a problem with this approach, however: it is not worth losing Jaroslav Halak over.

Let me elaborate.

I assume (based on lots of experience now) that Gainey and his new coach will press on with the “development by minutes approach” they have been implementing with Carey Price to this point. That said, to keep with the current progress and build his endurance, I think it would be reasonable to predict that a healthy Carey Price will be favoured for the start in ≥2/3 of Canadiens games in 2009-10.

For a back-up that means 20-odd games over the season. For a mentor, that suits. One could imagine many a graying netminder stepping into such a role. However, we also want this back-up to be reliable (and dare I say it, even good/great).

Now last time I checked good/great veteran goaltenders of the free agent variety don’t like to consign themselves to a back-up role before the head-to-head play has been evaluated, no matter what the salary. Sure, someone like Manny Fernandez played the back-up in Boston, and Huet did in Chicago, but they went in looking to be the starter. In Montreal, the starter role is not on offer. In my mind, that rules out a lot of eligible candidates.

So, let’s say then we forego the "capable stopper" part of the description. We sign up Curtis Joseph or other washed up vet and their now sub 0.700 save percentage and have the guy room with Carey for the season while Price takes on 72 games himself.

It’s a possibility, but not one that I like.

First of all, it undermines the original veteran back-up idea. All we've done is replaced inexperienced Halak with more Carey Price. There's no insurance, and no matter how hood the mentor is, I'm not sold on that. If anyone is ready to bet that Carey Price has undergone his last deep slump, it’s not me. I’m not a fan of burning another season, so I like the idea of insurance.

In that case, let’s forget the mentor – just get a veteran who can come in and be reliable and take over from Carey for a few weeks at a time when things get bumpy. Martin Biron, for example.

Not ideal for me either. I mean, we’re back to where we started aren’t we?

Halak already does that job. Why pay Biron to be an older Halak? It would be foolish to pay $2-3 million more for the mere tag veteran. Nevermind, the chance that Gainey will find a goalie as good as Jaro with the same tolerance for back-up duty (yet more experience) is slim indeed. No, if this vet can’t be a mentor and play with the plan for Price, then I don’t think we pay over the odds to make this type of move. This brings me to my next point…


Goaltending coach

I am not the first, and I won’t be the last to bring up this idea. If mentor is what Carey needs, surely the position of goaltending coach is a place we can park this guy.

Next year would be Roland Melanson’s twelfth season as assistant coach of the Montreal Canadiens. And, while I congratulate him on the achievement, it might be time to remind him that “all good things must come to an end”. It may be harsh to criticize him as a coach with so little understanding of what he actually does, but he has now presided over so many goaltending blowouts that one surely must question his tenure.

He has successfully presided over the rise of Jose Theodore, Mathieu Garon, Cristobal Huet and now Price and Halak. But it seems every time one of his pupils begins to ask questions of their game or their confidence, Rollie the goalie doesn’t have the answers. Perhaps that’s because he doesn’t have the answers. Perhaps it’s because they weren’t asking for the type of answers he was giving. Maybe they can't relate to him, who knows.

Carey Price for his part clearly needs to be nurtured. I think we can all agree that the cool, independent image that we were sold two summers ago has been destroyed. He is needy, he is insecure – or in other words, he’s a regular goalie. We all remember Carey’s first season and his first successes. Positioning was the name of the game and rebounds were rare. He once knew how to provide the commodity we were after. In trying to improve, he has lost the above average abilities he had before. I, for one, would take those back and have him stabilize there. Sometimes a mentor is all a young charge needs to find what they once knew. And I don’t think all the calls for a veteran back-up are misguided in that way.

So who can be the man for the job?

Not Rollie.

Francois Allare? Likely the greatest technician available, but probably not the mentor for Carey.

I’d look for someone who’s been through what he has and come out alright. Someone who’s played the mentor before. My target would be Jeff Hackett. Who else could you find that was drafted high, started slow and survived a shocking 0.856 save percentage season to come back and be Canadiens star and teacher to Vezina winner?


Practice culture

Carey was failed this season by his laid-back attitude. He was failed by the laid back attitudes of those around him as well. I remember reading, in the deepest, darkest days of his slump that Carey had been working hard in practice…
“On CKAC this afternoon, Martin McGuire reported Price has been working very hard in practice. He's the first one on the ice with the injured guys and often the last to leave.

Implicit in McGuire's praise is the notion that Price's work habits have not always been exemplary.”


It wasn’t the only article talking about lax habits in training.

He wasn’t great that next game as hoped, he was horrible. But practice doesn’t work that way. Practice takes time. So, presumably still in his bucke-down mode, Carey did get the next start and the next and the next and the next. And fuelled by his hard work on off days, it was probably Carey’s most impressive stretch of the season. He got four straight domes from a fed-up Tobalev (which says a lot). He let in a mere 8 goals, got 5 important points for the Habs and kept them in every game.

The connection between practice and success was unfortunately overlooked or forgotten a month later, though as more optional practices were handed down by Gainey and the one player who should have been as motivated as anyone to correct his gaps sat a few out – including during the playoffs.

It’s a simple thing really – practice makes perfect. In Malcolm Gladwell’s new book, Outliers, he repeated the estimate that it takes 10,000 hours of practice to be great at something. That goes for skating, playing guitar, glove saves, stick-handling (see Kovalev). This recap from the book says it all:
“The Story of Success challenges assumptions about innate genius and natural-born talent. Through a series of detailed examples, Gladwell explains away these gifts by attributing them to practice, timing, circumstance, upbringing, culture, and opportunity. In other words, those really smart, successful people we admire – Mozart, Bill Gates, the Beatles – weren’t born with natural talent. Instead, they had the right upbringing, were in the right place at the right time, and through 10,000 hours of hard work and a few lucky opportunities, landed success.”

This should be mandatory reading for Halak, Price and all the Canadiens. People often wonder how to emulate the Red Wings (looking for easy things like signing free agents, or getting a big man for the PP), but nothing can replace the hard work in practice that has kept them on top since the Bowman years and continues with Mike Babcock.


Internal competition

More than a win-you’re-in scheme, I would like to see some serious internal competition. Assuming it’ll be Price/Halak, the seeds are already there.

Here’s an idea of what I might do. From the beginning of the season sit both goalies down. Explain the situation: Carey will play 2/3 of regular season games, Jaro will play 1/3. Here’s where it gets interesting – the goalie who plays best wins the right to the first two playoff games. Stats considered could be saves, wins, giveaways and more. The scoring would be laid out and prorated based on to 2-1 ratio.

The point of the complicated scheme is that these boys have to start caring about being better than each other. That’s the starting point to them caring about exceeding the average level of play across the league. It doesn't have to be this formal (or this complex). Whatever stirs the young men. Hopefully the reward or consequences they can see on a day-to-day basis, with their competition right there will fuel them t work for what they want (one can only hope that's a playoff start...).


Improve communication

On-ice communication, that is.

With a soft-spoken Russian running the D and a couple of shy goalies, it’s no wonder the Canadiens run around following each other all over the defensive zone.

One of the benefits of better practice would be better understanding among players, but also confident leaders will emerge from defensive pairs and goalie teams.

Ultimately one person has to be in charge, otherwise you are just hoping for coverage as a unit...


Upgrade on D


Rather than pouring money into a veteran back-up, it would make more sense to allocate some funds to upgrade the defence at the 1st, 2nd or 3rd D level. That would mean Komisarek could be a comfortable number 4/5 with Gorges and a natural 6th like Bouillon could take his rightful place.

Ultimately, I would like Bouwmeester. He’s young, can skate, can cover the back, has long reach, can shoot and clearly has an understanding of the game. He’s also young and could conceivably still get even better. But Jay may be looking at top top money, and Montreal, handcuffed by the taxes may just not be able to outbid. That’s why I like Johnny Oduya UFA as a target. He’s youngish, from a good system and plays some effective if not spectacular D.

For Price/Halak, the simple addition of a player like Oduya could reduce shots, time in zone and importantly rebounds. It would be a stats enhancer, which in turn could be a big confidence boost to the young goalies.


Defensive coach

Finally, in the same vein, assigning a defencman to coach the defencemen alone could really help overall team defence and by extension the goaltenders.

Nevermind the goalies for a minute. We’ve done nothing but draft defencemen for 4 years – can we really afford to have the brilliant coordinator who came up with the coverage plans we saw this season taking those assets under the wing? I think that answer is clear as day.

–––––––––––––––

If another season is about to get underway with Price pre-selected for important starts, I think it’s high time we start tipping the scales for the boy. Get him a coach who he responds to, get him to practice well and practice hard, light fires under him with competition or whatever fires him up, sort out the defenders and bolster their numbers with people who can defend.

There’s been enough hoping things are going to turn out right. This team mustn’t accept another season launched with hope masqueraded as patience. There are tried and true methods that work.

It’s too late to draft a thoroughbred who comes in and saves the franchise at 19.

It’s too late to develop the most promising prospect the organization has had in a decade in the sensible way.

It’s not too late to install the best coaches possible, sign players that fit the needs and install a work ethic that pays dividends in the spring. It's not too late to take the lessons from the past two seasons on board and apply them to the developing team for the future.

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Out With The Pride: In With A Real D

I know this organization values its own reputation more than anything, and that seems to extend to its reputation of hanging on to the wrong players while valiantly trying to make them play in ways they were never born to.

But as we are already hanging on to one massive project at the back to save face, would we be comfortable in saying that perhaps the project in trying to turn a man who happens to be 6'4" into an NHL defenceman?

Mike Boone wonders 'akey' about what it might take to sign Mike Komisarek.

Pardon me for looking right past Mike's name and to that of Jay Bouwmeester in the very same article. The way I see it, we should try dabbling with young defenders developed by competent defence coaches rather than hope another might slip through under our noses here like Markov did.

If Mike Komisarek is to be paid $5 million a year, I would happily see an extra $3 mil a year off to watch him try to set the all-time record for meaningless hits on another team while Jay-Bo forms the second partnership we crave in front of the Apprentice.

We like Mike K, but if he's going to be unreasonable about his value as Souray was before him, then we can do better things with our money. If the salary cap ever fell and Mike Komisarek was taking up more than 10% of our salary base, it would indeed be a sad day for the team.


Alternative solution

Bridesmaid Bob Gainey could anticipate losing that battle of tax-free salary right now, however, and simply set his sights on a minor upgrade at the back (whether or no he offers a savings on Komo's contract).


One I've had my eye on for a while, and who could be a UFA on the right date is Johnny Oduya. He's not technically as big as Mike Komisarek, but perhaps the fear that he'll play good defence will go further than the fear you might be checked just before celebrating your teammate's goal next year. One can only hope. He might also be amenable to playing for his true value.

Other ways to better spend $5 million: Matthias Ohlund, Alex Kovalev, part of Scott Niedermayer, and indeed Mike Komisarek plus the other $2.5 million player we could sign if he took a sane raise.