The Kovalchuk Deal: Still A Win For Devils

Since yesterday, I have read a half dozen articles that showcase the Kovalchuk ruling as a headache for the Devils.

Damien Cox did some wacky math in The Spin the other day:

But you could argue Kovalchuk will, when its all said and done, cost the Devils somewhere between $150 million and $200 million in salary, fines, prospects, draft picks and players

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Today, Pat Hickey seems to echo the line that the deal is mostly negative for the Devils too.

AS usual, i feel some of the commentators have been swept along and are missing the main point. While it's true the deal has been costly this summer (a $3 million fine and a first and 3rd round draft pick), it still is hugely beneficial to the Devils.

First, we have to debunk the fact that the Devils somehow paid
with Niclas Bergfors, Johnny Oduya, Patrice Cormier and a first-round pick for Kovalchuk. That trade (and we're not forgetting Salmela) was made for the pleasure of dressing Kovalchuk in the 2010 close to the season, nothing more. Ilya was always going to be a UFA, and if anything that's why the cost was as low as it was.


The benefit of Kovalchuk

Really though, the true benefit of this deal comes from being able to dress Kovalchuk for this season and the next 14 at the relatively cut-rate price of $6.67 million a season.

That salary for a player like Kovalchuk is a bargain by league standards at the moment. Kovalchuk hasn't scored less than 40 goals a season since his 20th birthday and has been a point-per-gamer with no supporting cast for many years. Hi salary cap mark puts him currently at the 25th highest in the league (not bad for the best goalscorer of the decade) and behind players like Thomas Vanek, Patrick Marleau and Anze Kopitar (not to mention Scott Gomez).

Now here's the best part. If the league doesn't shrink and the salary cap grows (even only to keep up with inflation) Kovalchuk's cap number will likely look better year after year as players surpass him with new contracts.

And penalties aside, there is nothing the league has done or can do to circumvent the original intent that Kovalchuk would retire whenever he wanted to, presumably long before the age of 42.

So instead of tallying Patrice Cormier and a few draft picks, tally the fact the Devils just acquired the only available superstar in the NHL and signed him to a bargain deal for his current numbers. The numbers stand to look better over the years too as salaries and caps are pushed higher or Kovalchuk retires.

There's no guaranteeing a Cup with a move like this one, but let's not paint one of the most creative deals (maybe the last creative deal) as all negative. The Devils are a better team today than they were last year with Oduya and Bergfors and their three draft picks and that's what really matters.

Salary Cap Issues In Need Of Change

By now, we're all up on the league's stance on long and unrealistic contracts. A lot of people are praising the league for their stance on this.

But from my point of view, this is only an important stance if solid action is taken in the form of rule changes, changes to the CBA, else interpretation becomes a bit flaky (see Pronger contract). While the league is at it, I think there’s a few other issues that have come to light that they need to address too.


Contract rules

It’s not only the length of a contract that’s important. In fact, it’s not the length at all. Everything hinges on the age at which the player will receive his last payday.

Yesterday, I saw a good suggestion on the matter. A simple and elegant solution that the league could implement tomorrow:

Don’t allow any long-term contracts to extend past a player’s 39th birthday.

Why 39? Well, the number was chosen based on league averages, but the number it self isn’t that important after all, another number (36, 37, 40) would work just as effectively in setting clear boundaries.

In addition to finishing age, it appears there’s also some concern about what a player is paid at the beginning and the end of the contract. This isn’t really an issue if the player plays those years (see Scott Gomez), as the cap treats every year as equal. It is an issue if the player retires,, though, since a false cap number was calculated with the lower salary which might never be paid out.

The Kovalchuk deal was new because it had so many years at league minimum to bring down the cap hit that it seemed disingenuous. I can see the problem with it. After all, if Kovalchuk was intending to play till then, he’d already have signed for $6 million every year until 44 by now.

There might be an easy-ish solution here too. Limits could be set on how much the top salary and bottom salary in a deal could vary (e.g., 50%, 30% or something) and there could be guidelines about how many seasons at less than say 60% of the average pay there could be.

Whatever, the eventual solutions, the point is that they need to be put to paper and made clear to everyone. Until that happens, the league’s whim will be seen as the rule.


Minor league duty

Just as outrageous as Kovalchuk’s contract is the idea that the Blackhawks can simply put Cristobal Huet in the minors in order to free up salary cap space. In the event they do that, the Hawks will erase Huet’s entire salary from their cap tabulation. Other teams will be on this boat too, as Jeff Finger may be helping Brian Burke from another cap overshoot by playing in the minors.

This situation is fraught with issues as well.

For starters, it seems quite unfair to the player. Huet may be in the minors for his sketchy play, but there will be others who suffer the same fate for their big payday alone. For another thing, the player can still play late on in the season when cap spae is clearer and is free as anyone else to play in the playoffs..

It’s an extreme example, but imagine Chicago opts to sign Kovalchuk and Frolov and gets them to commit to the minors. No matter what outlandish salaries they pay them, come playoff time they could insert the two of them and then Huet back into the lineup without consequence.

Clearly this issue needs to be revisited as well, as the loophole unfairly allows irresponsible GMs to correct errors at a players expense. It also creates an uneven playing field for people who play the cap as if it means something.


Salary cap penalty

While we’re on the topic, how about the salary cap penalty?

Because of bonuses, Chicago went way over the salary cap last season. While it’s causing them some headaches now (and Huet an NHL continuance), the penalty is less than a slap on the wrist.

In a way, I can see Chicago’s point of view. They exceeded the cap for playoff bonuses. That’s hard to account for.

But what’s Toronto’s excuse? And why do they get the same free pass? If it’s true that Toronto went over the salary cap last season, it must also be true that they did so in the regular season (there were no playoffs, after all). I think we all have to ask:

a) Why was this allowed to happen?
b) Why haven’t they been punished beyond the penalty on this year’s cap?

As it stands, with regular season cap busters exceeding the cap without consequence, does it not lead to the next logical question: What is there a salary cap for?

Here, I think the league needs to take action for the next time this occurs, or rather before it happens again. Forfeit of games, draft picks and funds are no brainers. Perhaps something more drastic, though, is what it would take.


Arbitration

Did anyone else see that Clarke MacArthur was awarded $2.4 million a season from the league arbiter? Did anyone else see Jamie Langenbrunner is making $2.8 million a season?

Maybe the MacArthur case is a one off, but I get the feeling it isn’t. Because teams are so terrified of arbiter rulings like this one, they avoid arbitration like the plague. And how do they do that? Well, by overpaying, of course.

An unbalanced arbitration system is good for escalating salaries and not much else. Maybe it too needs a re-look.


Lamoriello is taking some heat and mockery now for his attempt to circumvent the salary cap. However, it must be said that he did it because the laws are loose. If the NHL is at all serious about having this cap, it's high time they took the action to see that things like salary rules, minor league demotions and cap penalties are calibrated correctly. The salary cap was meant to level the playing field, not tilt it towards the unrepentant.

The Summer's For Fiction Habs Trade Rumours Of Late

I do my best to ignore the rumours as they roll by. I mean are we honestly going down the Patrick Marleau road again for the 5th consecutive summer? You expect it from Eklund, he needs the readers; but for everyone to join in is a bit disappointing.

The hook for most rumours nowadays seems to be their perceived achievability. Are they realistic? This includes the salary exchange, of course. But added to the mix (and a favourite of the Hockeybuzz randomizer) is connections from the past.

When Saku Koivu was here, one consistent rumour from the guys who generate these "realistic" rumours was Teemu Selanne. Now that someone from Montreal has actually spoken to Teemu we know that Saku asked and he balked immediately – a question of enjoying California sunshine just that much. Bob Gainey GM, Guy Carbonneau father-in-law – it was only a matter of time back in the day before Brenden Morrow was added to the Habs. Big and cousin to Carey Price? That's two reasons Shane Doan always popped up. Don't forget anyone who can speak French with a contract running out – there's a whole other boatload of potential trade targets.


The trend of the summer seems to be that we will reunite any combination that our new free agents have ever successfully undertaken. Gainey, to be fair, has encouraged this kind of activity by signing Brian Gionta after he made the Scott Gomez deal. So the rumour-makers go to work. Cammalleri had a good year in LA, so naturally Frolov should be here too. Gomez and Gionta played well with Patrik Elias, so naturally Gainey must be pursuing him as well.

It's nonsense, of course. The stuff of August.


Why do trades that "make so much sense" so rarely happen?

Well one very good reason is that trades in general so very rarely happen. Now I'm not sure that they ever did really. I think what seems to make them so scarce nowadays is the simple fact that thanks to certain very imaginative internet users, about 5 or 6 are rumoured every single day. And when you look at interesting trades over the year, you'd be lucky to list 5 or 6 – that's a whole lot of unfulfilled dreams.

Honestly, though, I think the reason a lot of trades that "make sense" don't happen is because most of the time, they don't make any sense at all. Yes, Patrick Marleau for Halak makes sense in a one-eyed Canadiens kind of way, but for the Sharks? Throwing in salary doesn't help either, because it's rare that desirable asset and salary to shed fall on the same list for the trade partner.

Take the latest rumours. The trades for Elias and Frolov don't make as much sense to the teams reported to be shipping as they might for Montreal. For instance, there is good reason that Elias is the player from that line left in New Jersey from that line and Frolov is the one lingering in LA. There was reason to why those GMs made the choice to keep those two players ahead of their linemate(s). When you consider New Jersey, it would probably not be far-fetched to say that Elias has been the engine behind the offense there for a decade. Compared to Elias, Gomez was a blip on the radar. In LA, Frolov came first as well. A biggish winger who scores 25-30 goals like clockwork, it's easy to see why another team would covet him. Also easy to see why LA would not part ways with the guy.


Do these trades even make sense for Montreal?

It's all well and good to look down a roster and pick out players that played together (do we know that anyway, do we remember?) and come up with a story about the times they had together. It's quite another to substantiate those stories. It occurred to me that not only were these trades not the stuff of dreams for Lamoriello and Lombardi, but also that Gainey might not be getting the incredible boost that everyone assumes that would come from the moves.

If Luckily, there are resources available courtesy of the tireless stats crunchers who live in our computers to verify the hypothesis. We can have a look at how the partnerships we're supposedly working around the clock to reunite actually fared in the past. So that we can take our one eyed view if we want, yet make it an analytical eye.

Cammalleri – Frolov

In 2006-07, Cammalleri and Frolov did play together at even strength, but they weren't joined at the hip. They shared the ice for 481:33 minutes. Cammalleri played 564:49 without Frolov and Frolov played 637:35 withou Mike – so both played more without the other than with.

Interestingly, their partnership did seem to make both players more productive as they produced 28 goals when on ice together for a a rate of 1.163 a period. Cammalleri sans Frolov gave only 1.062 G/20 and Frolov sans Cammalleri 0.784 G/20. In case you're wondering Mike also made Alex a slightly better defensive bet, but Alex made Mike more of a liability.

But the duo didn't stop compiling evidence in April 2007. They did play another year together – and this is where it gets interesting. It seems that in 2007-08 (at least at ES), Mike and Alex were not primary linemates. Perhaps due to injuries and the resulting discovery of new combinations, perhaps due to coaching preference. Cammalleri in that season spent more time with Dustin Brown and Anze Kopitar. Of his 1060 or so minutes of ice time, he spent less than a third with Frolov. And contrary to the season prior, 2007-08 was not a data set to suggest that the two were the second coming of Gretzky and Kurri. Offensively, both players were quite a bit better apart. Where together they popped out 0.846 goals a period, apart Cammalleri was good for 0.908 and Frolov for a whopping 1.237. Defensively, Mike was ever so slightly better with Frolov whereas Alex was again worse off.

If I'm Alexander Frolov, then, where's my burning desire to return to Cammalleri's side? I'm pretty happy with what I can do on my own. If I'm Cammalleri, I've shown I can be even better with Iginla – please get me Iginla.


Elias – Gomez – Gionta

At the very least, the rumour-makers got the line right. Back in 2006-07 (first year of data, last year for the line), the favourite linemates for each player came from the threesome – and they spent in the neighbourhood of two thirds of their even strength playing time together. And they were a good line on a good team. It wouldn't be a massive mistake to reunite them.

But really, who made who better? Well offensively it goes like this. Gomez made both Elias (1.143 vs. 0.453 G/20) and Gionta (1.022 vs. 0.281 G/20) a lot better producers at even strength. Elias helped Gomez a little (1.143 vs. 0.820 G/20) but not Gionta at all (0.828 vs. 0.841 G/20). And Gionta seemed to be leeching off the line because both Gomez (1.022 vs. 1.016 G/20) and Elias (0.828 vs. 0.927 G/20) were at least as good if not slightly better without his small frame around.

The next two seasons give us more fodder on the Elias front. In 2007-08, Elias dragged Gionta along again, but once again Gionta was not into symbiosis, preferring his parasitic ways. Last seasonsaw them together again, but like an old tired couple – neither really sparking the other anymore. Both seemed resigned just to plod on as they would. Importantly though, from Elias' point of view (and Lamoriello's), Patrik is still cruising along and steadily challenging the goal for every 20 minutes of play standard. He has also taken to playing with Zach Parise when possible, it seems, with massive boosts in production for both when they grace the same surface.

So if Elias were to be targeted, it would make sense to partner him with Gomez, but also to distance him from Gionta – so it would mean banishment for Brian from the centre he signed on for, hardly a very good strategy to welcome your new 5-year signing. From NJ's point of view, Elias is a leader and a very reliable offensive player who also happens to click with their new superstar forward. Not much incentive in the trade for them really. Not unless the trade includes someone named Andrei Markov.

In all honesty, if Gainey was as fixated on combination boosts as people are making out, it would be a better tack to go after Robert Lang who actually did potentiate two players on the team by quite a handsome margin (Andrei and Sergei Kostitsyn) – all the more relevant, being that it happened in Montreal.


Both would obviously be great additions in Montreal as two of the top left wingers in the league. But considering salary, the current roster players, price to pay in a trade and the fact the combinations wouldn't bring quite the Midas touch the Eklunds of the world sell, it seems both are a massive stretch in the end – a bit of summertime fiction for the beach (and that goes for both the one-eyed or two-eyed onlooker).

Deadline DayRecap LIW Style

Deadline Day in Review

Date: Wedensday, March 4th, 2009
Opponent: Critics
Venue: North America (and too many Canadian living rooms)

Team Stripes


Trade of the day
The trade you wasted your whole day to see...

The day started out slowly as it often does. After the big play, we were left hoping for more, but little came. The trade itself came around lunchtime with Darryl Sutter making a sweet and confident offer to nervous Phoenix. The result, a dominant and rather large number one centre (Olli Jokinen) for the second best winger in the league - his first ever. He even scooped a third round pick in the process. All this for Matthew Lombardi, a prospect (Brandon Prust) and what promises to be a low first round pick.

GM of the day
GMs, most former players, rarely get a chance to face down their rivals so intensely and so directly. The winner of the day deserves accolades.

Darryl Sutter, Calgary
Sam Pollock, who would have held this honour for most years of his career, would tell you that the winner is the man who gets the best player. Darryl Sutter got the best player in Jokinen. He swapped centre for centre in a massive upgrade and obtains a player signed at a reasonable rate. He also added Jordan Leopold.

Dome management team
We're going into the last minute of the trade deadline with these 6 (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Aggressives

Darryl Sutter, Calgary
He went early and he went hard. Not afraid to spend what would be a low first rounder, and confident in his current crop to give up two youngsters, he turned the corner from developing team to committed contender today as he went for Jokinen. His trade for Leopold (though I'm not a fan) did not cost him too heavily - he even managed to unload a waiver wire pickup from the morning. Deft and aggressive maneuvering.

Steve Tambellini, Edmonton
It all happens in Alberta. Not to be outdone by his cross-province rival, Tambellini took the time to get the man he wanted (through a Carolina detour) for a player that never fit the plans right. A promising prospect and a pick for a man you have no more use for - Bob Gainey take note... He tops it off by adding reliable enough Kotalik for a pick. Aggressive to finish the day and an improved team as a result.

Dale Tallon, Chicago Blackhawks
Plucking the diamond in the rough is hard to do. Samuel Pahlsson would have been my top target on a playoff team with most pieces in place like Chicago. Maybe Tallon kicked a few Jokinen tires, maybe some others; but unlike some peers it didn't end there. He saved a bit for the finish as he grabbed the stand-out shadow centre from recent Stanley Cup and Olympic championship teams - all for an expendable piece, and from a conference rival to boot. His "boss" Scotty Bowman might have had his paws on this day for the Hawks.


Defensives

Jacques Martin, Florida
Jacques might lose Bouwmeester for "nothing" now; but he might not. One thing is sure - that is that Florida (who are in their best form in 13 years) have retained their best player in the face of inane speculation. In addition, Martin smelled blood in Tampa and pounced on novice GM Lawton to snatch Eminger for his already mobile and versatile defence.

Darcy Regier, Buffalo
Speculation that Darcy might have to lose his top point producer of late was quashed when he signed him to a contract instead. Following that, he turned pick into Dominic Moore (who wouldn't fit lots of places, but seems Buffalo-esque) and then created space for Moore and recouped the pick in dealing Kotalik to Edmonton.


Stalwarts

Ken Holland, Detroit
7 teams were not involved in any trades today. 6 did not make any move at all. Of all those, you cannot question Ken Holland who was probably under pressure sitting in the unfamiliar 2nd seed. Having been here before, he could smell bad deals when he saw them and stayed well clear. Detroit as it was last year was head and shoulders above. Enhanced in the off-season. ken Holland has kept the most formidable group together without flinching.


Eye-Openers
Some say the best moves are the ones you never make. Time can prove anything. But this day will certainly be remembered for the moves that were not made. All the hype of stars moving even right up to 3:00 (Gomez for Morris, E1?) and there was only one superstar forward move. Only one goalie of note was shifted. The best defenceman dealt was had by a canny GM two weeks ago. Want to have your eyes opened: teams that didn't move today included Detroit, New Jersey and Washington. Who wouldn't want to be included in that group: not Montreal, Nashville, Minnesota and Vancouver (most long revered as well managed squads).

The GMs from among that group that did want to move did so away from the nonsense. Bob Gainey acquired Mathieu Schneider well before most GMs' alarms went off for this thing. It got him a PP back, 8 points in the standings, and the stay of execution he wanted for his top offensive star. Lamoriello plucked a defender for himself early too when the attention span was better. Gillis of the Canucks went aggressive with his cap space for Mats Sundin as he had committed to in the summer. That move looks like the top move of the year to me. Minnesota resigned their star Backstrom and Nashville just manages doing things the way they do.

On the flip side, the most hyperactive GMs were among the worst performers. Brian Lawton had a shocking day - swapping 5 players and picks for 4 worse players and a worse pick. Phoenix went a bit wild and only came out neutral because Glen Sather got blown out in the Morris trade hard. A final nod should go to Brian Burke who showed how tough the job in Toronto must be (JFJ looks good). He turned two of his only productive players into 2 second round picks. He then made himself a salary haven - for what? Plenty of bluster from the self-promoter.

Overall Comments
I'm glad I joined into this farce late. It was predictably slow. And though it is great fun to read up on player movement at the end of the day, I hardly need to be there when the news of Guerin being traded again.

Last year was coloured by disappointment for me, as we lost Huet. This year, I have to say there was some dread Gainey might opt to unload a UFA or two (and I'm not talking about Dandy and Bouillon). As it ends, I'm happy we didn't move a key player, because I feel that this group at their best is better than all but maybe Detroit at their best. Our rivals may have strengthened. However, Boston is no better than they were for Montador and Recchi. Buffalo will still miss Miller more than Moore can help and New York is all over the map. Pittsburgh improved the most on this day, but it shouldn't be forgotten their defence is now a laughable lot sans impressive part Whitney of 2008. I like our chances if we can keep our cohesion and take advantage of some confusion on other squads. 2 games against TO shouldn't hurt either...

Larry Robinson night: Can 'Sweet Lou' say dix-neuf?

Larry Robinson is having his number retired on Monday night. What a great way to remember one of the greatest defensemen to ever play the sport, and probably the greatest to play in Montreal.

Among the remarkable accomplishments being bandied about by blogsters and reporters ahead of the big event, the thing that stands out most is his winning of the Conn Smythe trophy in the 1978 Stanley Cup playoffs. On a team with a multiple Art Ross trophy-winner, a former 60 goalscorer, 8 future hall of famers, the most successful goalie (percentage-wise) to play post-WWII, and several Conn Smythe trophy winners and winners to be, the task was no easy feat. Perhaps even more impressive was him leading the playoffs in scoring that year.



In addition to all that Larry Robinson never once missed the playoffs. Of course, he played in a league where it was near impossible for a team like the Canadiens to ever miss, but he did keep the streak alive with the LA Kings, perhaps with a little help from Gretzky…

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Of all the reports on “Big Bird”, one in particular got my attention – probably for the wrong reasons. Francois Gagnon of La Presse (aka, the sane one on 110%) wrote at length about the ceremony, but his twist (or hook, if you will) was that Larry had quite an unusual choice as announcer for his ceremony.


It turns out, of all his friends and former teammates, Larry Robinson chose Lou Lamoriello to announce at the ceremony. Gagnon briefly points out that the Canadiens maintain that the choice was up to Larry and they had no say in the matter. However, before pondering a list of possible alternates, M. Gagnon feels the need to point out that Lamoriello is an anglophone American. In what may have well been a throw away line, he states: Yet another night where French is pushed aside:

Il faut dire que la sélection de Lamoriello, un anglophone américain, mettra une fois encore de côté le français dans cette portion de la cérémonie.

While it may be puzzling to us why Robinson chose Lamoriello for a ceremony recognizing his outstanding play and contribution to the Canadiens, I’m sure it would be no mystery if we all got a chance to hear what Larry had to say about it. I can only speculate that Robinson and Lamoriello are very good friends and Larry wanted him to be there in some official capacity.

Although I don't think it was a well-thought out gibe at the Canadiens for laying the French language battle aside for a few minutes while they honour a great player, it's the recurring nature of these comments that gets me going. This could have been a story about Komisarek or Higgins after a game, or Koivu visiting children or Markov giving his first interview of the season.

Quite frankly, I could just shrug my shoulders and say “That’s just how they are”, but I don’t think that’s right. If I didn’t think it affected the team in any way, then I could let it slide, but let’s face it, it does. I think it's time the Canadiens are left alone to think about putting together a dominant season for the first time in ages. The Bell Centre should be a battleground for well fought hockey games, language battles have their place elsewhere.

Here I was innocently thinking Gagnon’s blog title “Sans ligne rouge” referred to hockey, when it may be that the red line he was referring to was the three rows of General Wolfe’s men who loosened the French hold on North America (and hence the NHL) on the plains of Abraham.

Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I hope he can stick to the stuff going on the painted ice from now on.

In any case, here's to Larry and his friends having a great night...