Price and his agent have played their opening gambit (in our imaginations)and the Canadiens have answered (in our imaginations again). I think we can all agree that unless Gauthier comes up with some stats wizardry or another #1 goalie, the Price team is looking good to pull salary towards their notion of fair dues.
The negotiation now turns to Gauthier and his team to argue the negative (or if they're inventive, the positive) so the salary cap burden of Price is more what they had in mind when they thought he would be the much cheaper option.
[Remember that for these mock purposes, we're assuming that Carey Price’s team is for $3 million as per HabsWorld's uncited "report" (1 to 3 years) and that the Habs are coutering with $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).]
Habs arguments
Other stats
Have you met our new numbers man, Ken Morin? He was only officially hired yesterday, but he came with some numbers in hand which we thought would be handy for these discussions.
You mentioned a 0.912 save percentage. We fully acknowledge that number, but would like to say right off the bat that we don’t exclude playoffs from our analyses, so we’ll be going ahead with a 0.910 number, just so you know.
Just a quick look at other stats from this season. You already mentioned Carey’s 0.912 from the season which ranked him 21st in the league. We’d like to just highlight a few stats to add context:
(min 16 GP)
41 GP (33rd)
39 GS (32nd)
13 W (37th)
0.33 W per start (55th)
0.33 W per 60 min (54th)
2.77 GAA (36th)
0 SO (T 48th)
You present Carey as an established starter with top 20 numbers. Based on what we see, we think he is right where he should be, but is still a developing youngster climbing the ranks. We think it would be fair to pay him as such.
Trends
We have addressed a lot so far, but a common element of 2nd contract negotiations has been conspicuously absent from these talks. Usually, we can all look at a player and draw upward trends. We find the talk about pedigree a bit disingenuous when we consider the decline since season one with Carey.
Our analysis reveals that since his 48th game in the NHL (the 7th game in the 2008 Boston series), where Carey was a 2.49, 0.920 goalie, he has but for very brief bumps been declining or standing still. If this were game 92 we were talking about, there wouldn’t be any reason for concern, but this is 106 games later now – 2 entire NHL seasons.
From game 49 to game 108 (last game of 2009) Carey declined to a 2.76, 0.910 goalie. Since that time, he has stemmed the decline but only to maintain that level.
Again, we are not suggesting this is anyway abnormal for a young goalie, but suggest that paying Carey as a seasoned pro, or a near-elite at this stage is off the mark. He is learning, but learning slowly. We also hope and assume there is still learning to be done and that he’ll be working on this into the upcoming season, if not beyond. As such, we don’t think we should be paying the price as he were the finished article.
Save percentage breakdown
M. Morin has been doing some excellent work, he really has. He has showed us a lot about how to look at save percentage. That is, to see how a goalie comes to his 91% of shots saved.
When we look at when goals are scored, we can see a massive gulf in between what goaltender we get at the beginning of a game compared to the end. Whereas, after a goal is allowed, Carey is on par with those you say are his peers (2.53, 0.920), for the start of games, he has an entirely different set of peers (3.30, 0.892).
Again we’re fully on board with the learning and will support Carey as long as it takes. But this is taken from this past season, and is further evidence of the fact that learning is not done. We think this bolsters our suggestion that paying for the finished article at this point is premature.
Support
Throughout his career until now, we have provided Carey with the best support and opportunities ever afforded to a goaltender of his age. We have showed our support by trading Halak and by signing in a veteran back up willing and able to support 60 games from Carey.
We continue to show this support and will do as he continues to learn his trade at this high level. Knowing Carey the way we do, and knowing what he needs from our years together, we think we offer him the best environment there is to thrive at the moment.
Opportunity
Currently Montreal stands as one of two teams (if we assume Huet and Niemi haven’t been settled on) where there is a starting position. Rather than looking on starts as a burden, we think starts are an asset to your client. We don’t think he can get this opportunity anywhere else in the NHL at the present time.
In the balance
Gauthier digs deep here. But is it enough to overcome the fact he chose Price long ago and would rely on Auld and an AHLer if Price were to opt out?
Showing posts with label free agents. Show all posts
Showing posts with label free agents. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Monday, July 26, 2010
Negotiating On Price:
Opening Parry
The last Canadiens game was played more than 2 months ago now. As the sun set on the Canadiens season, there were questions everywhere, except it seemed in goal. In goal, Jaroslav Halak had been the undisputed star for the Canadiens, if not the league in the playoffs to that point, and Carey Price warmed the bench.
But the offseason has cast a new light on matters. Halak was traded, of course. But even after that lingering negotiations have led to looming questions. For a brief period on July 1, Robert Mayer was the highest ranked goalie on the Montreal payroll. He was to be bumped to NHL back-up in the depth chart by the signing of Alex Auld and later to a more sensible place as Gauthier retained Desjardins and Sanford. As Price’s contract talks drag on, the depth chart of today still has Mayer in Hamilton, with Auld and probably Desjardins in Montreal.
That situation is pure fantasy, though, as Carey Price must be as near a certainty to sign on as there ever was. But Auld, Desjardins, Sanford, Mayer. Some have said it’s not leverage for the goalie and his agent, fans who ponder their upcoming cable package might disagree.
Anyway, we put aside the possibility that Price will not be signed instead looking to the terms of the contract he will eventually sign. For fun, I thought of the negotiation as a mock arbitration setting (probably not that far from the truth) with each side presenting their arguments and counter-arguments.
For mock purposes, let’s assume that Carey Price’s team is indeed asking for the $3 million that HabsWorld comes up with in its uncited "report" (1 to 3 years). The Habs we’ll assume by the hold up are not into that, we’ll say they started at $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).
Carey Price camp opening arguments
1. Starting goalie money
The average goalie salary (cap hit) in the NHL is $2.51 million
The average among starters is $3.75 million
Removing entry level for starters gives $4.1 million
You want Carey to be a starting goalie in one of the biggest fanbases with some of the biggest revenue in the NHL. He shouldn’t be far below average.
2. Comparables
Carey Price (3 seasons)
Season: 2.77, 0.912
Career: 2.73, 0.912
Jonas Hiller (3 seasons) ¬ $4.5 million
Season: 2.73, 0.918
Jaroslav Halak (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.75 million
Career: 2.62, 0.919
Kari Lehtonen ¬ $3.55 million
Season: 2.81, 0.911
Career: 2.87, 0.912
Pekka Rinne (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.4 million
Season: 2.53, 0.911
Their average salaries going into the next contracts are $3.8 million, so the $3 million we ask for is very reasonable considering Carey’s closest peers.
3. Pedigree
Drafted 5th overall
CHL goaltender of the year
WJC winning goalie and tournament MVP
Calder Cup winning goalie and tournament MVP
NHL All-Rookie team
NHL All-Star Game
4. Save percentage
Save percentage is the only number that can be trusted among goalie statistics, as it is the only number that belongs to the goaltending performance alone. 0.912 this season and for his career are excellent at his age. It was a single tenth of a percent behind Roberto Luongo.
5. Alternatives
Having traded Halak, without Carey you would look to start the season with Alex Auld in goal and Cedrick Desjardins at back up. Carey offers a massive upgrade to that tandem, replacing the completely NHL-naïve Desjardins from the roster and providing a better start option than Auld.
But the offseason has cast a new light on matters. Halak was traded, of course. But even after that lingering negotiations have led to looming questions. For a brief period on July 1, Robert Mayer was the highest ranked goalie on the Montreal payroll. He was to be bumped to NHL back-up in the depth chart by the signing of Alex Auld and later to a more sensible place as Gauthier retained Desjardins and Sanford. As Price’s contract talks drag on, the depth chart of today still has Mayer in Hamilton, with Auld and probably Desjardins in Montreal.
That situation is pure fantasy, though, as Carey Price must be as near a certainty to sign on as there ever was. But Auld, Desjardins, Sanford, Mayer. Some have said it’s not leverage for the goalie and his agent, fans who ponder their upcoming cable package might disagree.
Anyway, we put aside the possibility that Price will not be signed instead looking to the terms of the contract he will eventually sign. For fun, I thought of the negotiation as a mock arbitration setting (probably not that far from the truth) with each side presenting their arguments and counter-arguments.
For mock purposes, let’s assume that Carey Price’s team is indeed asking for the $3 million that HabsWorld comes up with in its uncited "report" (1 to 3 years). The Habs we’ll assume by the hold up are not into that, we’ll say they started at $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).
Carey Price camp opening arguments
1. Starting goalie money
The average goalie salary (cap hit) in the NHL is $2.51 million
The average among starters is $3.75 million
Removing entry level for starters gives $4.1 million
You want Carey to be a starting goalie in one of the biggest fanbases with some of the biggest revenue in the NHL. He shouldn’t be far below average.
2. Comparables
Carey Price (3 seasons)
Season: 2.77, 0.912
Career: 2.73, 0.912
Jonas Hiller (3 seasons) ¬ $4.5 million
Season: 2.73, 0.918
Jaroslav Halak (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.75 million
Career: 2.62, 0.919
Kari Lehtonen ¬ $3.55 million
Season: 2.81, 0.911
Career: 2.87, 0.912
Pekka Rinne (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.4 million
Season: 2.53, 0.911
Their average salaries going into the next contracts are $3.8 million, so the $3 million we ask for is very reasonable considering Carey’s closest peers.
3. Pedigree
Drafted 5th overall
CHL goaltender of the year
WJC winning goalie and tournament MVP
Calder Cup winning goalie and tournament MVP
NHL All-Rookie team
NHL All-Star Game
4. Save percentage
Save percentage is the only number that can be trusted among goalie statistics, as it is the only number that belongs to the goaltending performance alone. 0.912 this season and for his career are excellent at his age. It was a single tenth of a percent behind Roberto Luongo.
5. Alternatives
Having traded Halak, without Carey you would look to start the season with Alex Auld in goal and Cedrick Desjardins at back up. Carey offers a massive upgrade to that tandem, replacing the completely NHL-naïve Desjardins from the roster and providing a better start option than Auld.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Plekanec Too Good To Expose
Today, we received confirmation that at least some of the Canadiens management team watch the same games that we do, and even share some of the same notions about winning hockey.
Tomas Plekanec won a hefty raise by repeating his 20-odd goalscorer, 70-odd point man routine from a couple of years ago. He earned the privelege of Pierre Gauthier's phone call with an offer with his outstanding contributions throughout his tenure, the season, and particularly the Pittsburgh series.
This case draws a line in the sand between Plekanec and Jaroslav Halak for value to the team. Whereas the management figures they can do almost as well with Carey Price or someone else with adjustments to other positions, the Plekanec signing tells me they haven't seen an offensive centreman capable of playing as many roles as Pleks becoming available in the very near future.
Largely, I agree with this assessment. And, I'm glad that some other erroneous contracts didn't force this one off the books before a phone call could be made. $5 million a season is a lot for a number two centre (if reports are correct), but Plekanec himself earns this money (relative to high paid players in the NHL).
The move does however make the prospect of free agency less of a reality this summer. Looking down the list of players, this probably isn't a bad thing. That said, if a large scoring winger must be brought in, then the GM will have to get creative. Time for him to earn his money, I suppose.
Tomas Plekanec won a hefty raise by repeating his 20-odd goalscorer, 70-odd point man routine from a couple of years ago. He earned the privelege of Pierre Gauthier's phone call with an offer with his outstanding contributions throughout his tenure, the season, and particularly the Pittsburgh series.
This case draws a line in the sand between Plekanec and Jaroslav Halak for value to the team. Whereas the management figures they can do almost as well with Carey Price or someone else with adjustments to other positions, the Plekanec signing tells me they haven't seen an offensive centreman capable of playing as many roles as Pleks becoming available in the very near future.
Largely, I agree with this assessment. And, I'm glad that some other erroneous contracts didn't force this one off the books before a phone call could be made. $5 million a season is a lot for a number two centre (if reports are correct), but Plekanec himself earns this money (relative to high paid players in the NHL).
The move does however make the prospect of free agency less of a reality this summer. Looking down the list of players, this probably isn't a bad thing. That said, if a large scoring winger must be brought in, then the GM will have to get creative. Time for him to earn his money, I suppose.
Free Pizza For Everyone
As the NHL and TSN prepare for Thursday's awards cermonies and Friday's draft, the rst of the world is watching the World Cup.
I count myself in with the rest. And so, apart from being roused by the occasional trading of a team's major cog, I neglect my coverage of signings like Mathieu Darche for now.
I think it's only right. After all, for all the drama of teams shifting salary, it somehow just doesn't quite stack up to entire nations going at each other, some coming through in impressive fashion and others completely falling to pieces.
This morning was a case in point. This morning, an embattled French team took to the field in South Africa to face the home Bafana Bafana squad. I didn't need to watch the game, or the red card, or the bad loser's refusal to shake hands to embrace the feeling of this result.
South Africa 2:1 France
There's a beauty in that. Two coutries who qualified for the tournament through FIFA's own special allowances playing their way out. One group had their heads held high, one group left biting each others' heads off.
France, you see, deserved this fate. Having wrongly avoided being put to a penalty shoot-out in order to qualify courtesy of a goal made possible by Thierry Henry's offside hand to foot pass. Since that time, the Irish and those who thought FIFA took the easy way out have been hoping for the pendulum to swing back into the collective mid-riff of the French.
The momentum seemd to change early. France, a pre-tournament power if only for their star power, slipped and slogged away against an uninspired (on the day) Uruguayan side.
A loss to Mexico followed, with an effort that was questionable all around. From there, as you'd expect, flowed criticism, rifts in the squad, plenty of whining, a players strike, resignation of high ups in the French football federation, public humiliation, an injunction from President Sarkozy, more humiliation, and finally a loss to the lowest ranked team to be pulled from Pot A in this, and probably all, World Cups.
If you're Irish you call it justice. If you're just about anyone else, comedy.
Ireland come out with high groiund and pizza
Meanwhile, the Irish National football team (the other team I know to work in-fighting into match preparation - 2002: Keane, Roy) is enjoying this World Cup, perhaps more than they would have had the hand ball been flagged down by the linesman wishing to make up for his botched offside call. They'll have plenty of time now to relish the high ground.
Last week, sombreros and tequila were the order of the day in Dublin as France went up against Mexico in group match. If there was ever a day for Corona to outsell tehe black stuff on the river Liffey, it was on the evening of the French defeat that nearly sealed their fate.
Today, the Irish will be eating Pizza to their hearts' content, I imagine, as Pizza Hut is offereing free pizza following the French exit.
The results in sport don't always fall in the way that we want. Nor do they always fall on the side of fairness. But sometimes, it appears that they do.
Whatever the teams, the results. You just can't top the drama that's unfolding in South Africa. That it seems is my round-about apology for putting hockey on the backburner for a few days...
I count myself in with the rest. And so, apart from being roused by the occasional trading of a team's major cog, I neglect my coverage of signings like Mathieu Darche for now.
I think it's only right. After all, for all the drama of teams shifting salary, it somehow just doesn't quite stack up to entire nations going at each other, some coming through in impressive fashion and others completely falling to pieces.
This morning was a case in point. This morning, an embattled French team took to the field in South Africa to face the home Bafana Bafana squad. I didn't need to watch the game, or the red card, or the bad loser's refusal to shake hands to embrace the feeling of this result.
South Africa 2:1 France
There's a beauty in that. Two coutries who qualified for the tournament through FIFA's own special allowances playing their way out. One group had their heads held high, one group left biting each others' heads off.
France, you see, deserved this fate. Having wrongly avoided being put to a penalty shoot-out in order to qualify courtesy of a goal made possible by Thierry Henry's offside hand to foot pass. Since that time, the Irish and those who thought FIFA took the easy way out have been hoping for the pendulum to swing back into the collective mid-riff of the French.
The momentum seemd to change early. France, a pre-tournament power if only for their star power, slipped and slogged away against an uninspired (on the day) Uruguayan side.
A loss to Mexico followed, with an effort that was questionable all around. From there, as you'd expect, flowed criticism, rifts in the squad, plenty of whining, a players strike, resignation of high ups in the French football federation, public humiliation, an injunction from President Sarkozy, more humiliation, and finally a loss to the lowest ranked team to be pulled from Pot A in this, and probably all, World Cups.
If you're Irish you call it justice. If you're just about anyone else, comedy.
Ireland come out with high groiund and pizza
Meanwhile, the Irish National football team (the other team I know to work in-fighting into match preparation - 2002: Keane, Roy) is enjoying this World Cup, perhaps more than they would have had the hand ball been flagged down by the linesman wishing to make up for his botched offside call. They'll have plenty of time now to relish the high ground.
Last week, sombreros and tequila were the order of the day in Dublin as France went up against Mexico in group match. If there was ever a day for Corona to outsell tehe black stuff on the river Liffey, it was on the evening of the French defeat that nearly sealed their fate.
Today, the Irish will be eating Pizza to their hearts' content, I imagine, as Pizza Hut is offereing free pizza following the French exit.
The results in sport don't always fall in the way that we want. Nor do they always fall on the side of fairness. But sometimes, it appears that they do.
Whatever the teams, the results. You just can't top the drama that's unfolding in South Africa. That it seems is my round-about apology for putting hockey on the backburner for a few days...
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