Montreal didn't do much yesterday or the weeks before. But that doesn't mean Pierre Gauthier's team hasn't been shifting up and down in the relative arms race in the Eastern Conference. Trades all around them means that the Canadiens have lost ground and gained ground on several teams.
I look at the moves of rivals here.
First off, I don't consider Philadelphia a rival for now. They are miles clear in the standings are healthy and virtually guaranteed a playoff spot. The fact that they have eliminated the Habs two of the past 3 years in the playoffs and look to be just as daunting all season puts them a cut above in my mind. Someone else please eliminate in Round 1.
The New York Islanders are not and never really were rivals with the Habs. They are rebuilding (have been since the 1980s). Good luck to them.
The rest of the East are rivals, or were rivals at some point this season for the 7 other playoff positions. Between trades, waiver wire pickups and losses and injuries, the position of the Habs relative to each team has been in flux. With the possibility of big moves ended yesterday (not big injuries), the dust settles and we can see where the Habs stand against their rivals:
Tampa Bay Lightning (1-0-1 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Roloson, Brewer
Significant losses: None
Significant injuries: None
Drafting outlook: Unchanged
Tampa spent a bit of their future on the current season. They traded a pretty good prospect to correct their off-season goaltending choices and another to add Eric Brewer. Neither Roloson, nor Brewer seem that brilliant as additions. But the fact that Tampa made slight improvements without sacrificing from the current team means their outlook should be the same if not a bit brighter.
Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Gains
Boston Bruins (1-2-1 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Kaberle, Peverley, Valabk, Kelly
Significant losses: Wheeler, Stuart, Sturm
Significant injuries: Savard
Drafting outlook: Lots of high picks sacrificed
On the surface, it looked like Boston made the right moves. They did make a lot of them. But considering Peverley and Kelly don't come close to replacing Savard and Sturm, a lot hangs on Kaberle. I like Kaberle, but his impact remains to be seen. Boston were a better looking team than Montreal this year, primarily because Lucic and Thomas turned a big corner. I think that still stands to be the difference. The mortgage of the future for these players brought on illustrates exactly what I didn't want Gauthier to do. If Boston don't make a great run this year, they will have sacrificed a potential powerhouse in 5 years for nothing.
Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Slight gains
Pittsburgh Penguins (1-1-1 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Neal, Niskanen, Kovalev
Significant losses: Goligoski
Significant injuries: Malkin, Crosby, Orpik
Drafting outlook: Unchanged
Ray Shero restrained himself from making a big mess. I think he, like the rest of us, realises that whether Crosby is to come back has more impact on his team than 50 trades. Kovalev for nothing was clever with Malkin's cap space offering flex. The Neal trade brings a future piece, which was also smart. The outlook for this season hinges on injuries. But the outlook for the franchise will be bright if rehab comes through.
Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Losses
Washington Capitals (1-0-1 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Arnott, Wideman, Hannan, Sturm
Significant losses: Steckl, Fleischmann
Significant injuries: Green
Drafting outlook: A few picks sacrificed
Washington must recognise a Malkin and Crosby injury scenario offers an open door. With healthy stars for now (perhaps not so for Green), Washington paid to take a run. It's an overall improvement at a relatively low cost. Will it be enough? I think Ovechkin needs a turnaround to prove that it will be.
Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Gains
New York Rangers (0-3-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Wolski, McCabe
Significant losses: Roszival
Significant injuries: Frolov, Drury, Gaborik, Biron
Drafting outlook: Slight drop
New York is an important rival of the Habs, so the fact they didn't land the player that they wanted to pay with futures for was good for the Canadiens of this season. Injuries are the critical issue in New York, though, and some key scoring forwards out means D and Lundqvist have a lot to do. The McCabe trade is a stretch (better than Redden?) and the Wolski trade looked good on paper, but less so on the ice.
Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Losses
Carolina Hurricanes (0-3-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Stillman, Allen
Significant losses: Samsonov
Significant injuries: None
Drafting outlook: Gained a pick
Rutherford danced around a bit and ended up with a seller's draft pick as well as Cory Stillman. Stillman over Samsonov is a big improvement and should improve the Canes. I don't think Allen is as good as the talking heads pump him up to be, but he probably can't be worse than Ian White.
Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Slight gains
Buffalo Sabres (2-3-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Boyes
Significant losses: Rivet
Significant injuries: Roy
Drafting outlook: One pick out
Derek Roy has been a big loss to swallow, but the addition of Boyes should really help with that. Buffalo made few moves relative to their rivals in Toronto, but did more to actually progress.
Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Slight gains
Toronto Maple Leafs (3-2-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Lupul
Significant losses: Kaberle, Versteeg, Beauchemin
Significant injuries: None
Drafting outlook: Greatly improved
Toronto's recent winning streak, on the back of a Kessel scoring blip (trust me, I have him in my pool) is the mirage that obscures the fact Burke sold up for picks. Toronto can go for the playoffs all they want, because their pick is in Boston, and Boston's is in Toronto, but even if they make it, it would be hard to say they were a better team than they were before the trades. The real bad news for Montreal in this case was that Burke didn't decide to turn in those picks for a run. But hey, it's probably better to have high picks with a team that can't draft than with one that can.
Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Lost ground
Atlanta Thrashers (2-0-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Wheeler, Stuart, Dvorak, Schremp
Significant losses: Peverley, Valabik, Sopel, Modin, Bergfors, Rissmiller
Significant injuries: Burmistrov
Drafting outlook: Unchanged
Atlanta are a desperate team. Given their fall from what was an inflated position, they should have sold up. It was a half-hearted sale that means their future will likely put them behind the teams that committed to the future now. It's more of the same from the Thrashers as they fight for fans with the dream of 4 playoff losses.
Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Lost ground
Florida Panthers (1-1-1 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Samsonov, Sulzer, Skille
Significant losses: Allen, Wideman, McCabe, Higgins, Stillman, Frolik
Significant injuries: None
Drafting outlook: Greatly improved
8 points out of the playoffs. Who knows how many years without. It took guts (or insanity) to blow this apart. Tallon did that. The result is a shell of an NHL team, but a lot more draft picks. The puzzle in all this is trading Frolik and Salak who could be parts of a bright future. The Canadiens couldn't have asked for draft picks to land in less capable hands.
Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: No longer a rival
New Jersey devils (2-1-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Steckl
Significant losses: Arnott, Langenbrunner
Significant injuries: Parise
Drafting outlook: Slight improvement
New Jersey hasn't given up. And why should they? Their core is built to compete now and if they can make the playoffs from that far back, you'd have to count them as a serious contender. New Jersey has never required high draft picks to build before, so it seems they don't care about those now, instead relying on their above average scouting. Arnott and Langenbrunner out reflect the bad season they were both having. NJ taking a player means they won't lose much ground.
Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Slight losses
Ottawa Senators (1-4-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Anderson
Significant losses: Elliott, Kovalev, Ruutu, Kelly, Campoli, Fisher
Significant injuries: Alfredsson, Gonchar
Drafting outlook: Improved
Considering the fanbases total acceptance of trades, Murray made little of this. Essentially nothing for Kovalev and Ruutu is not good trading. What's more, the valuable trade chips were held, and for what? Chris Phillips could have fetched something. Spezza even more. Sentimentality in Ottawa has botched a rebuild opportunity. The scouts that found them Hossa, Alfredsson, Havlat and co. aren't there anymore, so this should be interesting.
Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: No longer a rival
Montreal's relative shift
From what I see, the Habs have lost some ground to 5 teams in all and gained some ground on 7 teams.
The good news for Habs fans is that many of the teams behind the Canadiens in the standings look to have packed it in a bit for this season. Toronto is pushing in games, but that belies their loss of quality. The only playoff outsiders that seem to be making a decent stand are the Buffalo Sabes, who I now think might make the post-season.
The bad news is that the teams ahead of them have made more serious pushes than the Canadiens to make serious runs in the playoffs. Philadelphia was already the class, and still are. Boston, Washington and Tampa Bay's GMs were more serious than Gauthier about this year vs. future years. Pittsburgh made interesting moves, but just aren't the team the standings say they are without Malkin and Crosby. They seem to realise that and didn't go wild.
The Habs currently stand 6th and look pretty good to finish about there. With a bit of luck, they'll compete well in the playoffs.
I will note that the Washington capitals must be watched from here. Last season they cruised to the playoffs, and the same team hasn't exactly struggled to remain in the top 5 this season. Arnott and Sturm are good late additions for them. Strangely losing Green for Wideman may also help.
Showing posts with label conference. Show all posts
Showing posts with label conference. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 01, 2011
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Lions In Winter Forecaster
A while back (you can tell by the players I thought would be around), the coordinator of the Score Sports Federation contacted all us NHL bloggers and asked that we make a contribution to the 2009 Score Sports Forecaster.
Always game to get my word in about the Habs, I happily contributed. For poolies like myself, you'll be interested to know that The Forecaster is now available on newsstands across Canada. If you want some fantasy predictions against which to weigh your own, then I recommend it. Also, you won't want to miss the blogger's section – Down Goes Brown rarely disappoints...
For those who are interested, here are the questions I was faced with and the answers I provided.
1. What lesson(s) did you learn about your team in 2008-09?
LIW: 2008-09 was a year of learning for Canadiens fans. We learned that we can't keep losing players in free agency for nothing, that our prospects are not as good as they may have been billed (yet) and that our player development at the NHL level needs a major overhaul (bye bye Carbo).
But it wasn't all negative. This season we also learned that the Canadiens organization will now be a bona fide playoff team again – if not yet a conference leader. They piled up points in the good times when injuries were few and opponents and games were easier. They recovered from a few major hiccups along the way. They managed through two months of porous goaltending. And, most importantly, they got it done in the latter stages.
Looking back now, things have certainly taken on a new light with all the changes. Apparently we can keep losing free agents – but not for nothing, since we gain others. I think Gainey learned a couple of the lessons I mentioned too, particularly that of player development – as he has clearly tried to improve on that front (Melanson, Livingston, Jarvis, Carbonneau all out and Martin's crew in).
2. What particular statistic reveals something about a notable team strength or weakness? (For example, you could include your team Save Percentage and explain that it indicates that your team needs to upgrade their goaltending)
LIW: Tomas Plekanec: 19 assists
Tomas was supposed to be our second-line centre. But playing on a line with Kovalev and Kostitsyn for large parts of the season (26 and 23 goal men), he only managed 19 assists. Tomas' statistic is symptomatic of a team whose forwards don't pass well between each other ("cycle" is a bad word in Montreal). For each goal scored by a forward, there was 1.26 assists, putting Montreal at 28th in the league in this category. More worrying than that is that the assist leaders among the forwards are all UFAs, leaving Plekanec the top man among the rest.
This stat will have to be turned around, and not just by Tomas, but by Latendresse, Higgins, Lapierre and Kostitsyn who all scored more than they provided. A little more cooperation up front would go a long way to making the team harder to defend against.
I stick by this Plekanec statistic. Call it chemistry if you want, but our 1a/b centre garnering a mere 19 assists when he was never really injured is not good. The total blow out of that line, or rather other teams' abilities to smother them was integral to our shortcomings. That said, save percentage in January and February was a close runner up.
3. Which player on your team do you feel fantasy hockey players should keep an eye on because you think he might have a breakout season in 09-10?
LIW: With a new coach, a system that will defend him from quality shots and a vote of confidence as the #1 goalie in Montreal, Carey will have a better fantasy season than last year. I expect him to start as many as 60 games and win at least half. Add to that the fact the Canadiens under Jacques Martin should be much better than a 2 shutout team and you have a far bigger fantasy season from Price.
For everything I say about Price and for all my reservations, I will say this – if your league awards goalie points by wins and shutous, Carey Price will see a jump. He can't be demoted, he's even more anointed this year than last and the Canadiens should allow less goals with their changes. Will he be a better goalie? That's anyone's guess, but that wasn't the question.
4. Do you expect your team to make the playoffs next season? How far do you think they can go in the post-season, and what they need to do to get there?
LIW: I think the Habs will make the playoffs again in 2009-10. Not only that, I believe they'll win some games and rounds when they get there – at least one.
But as we saw last year, predictions are conditional on things being right. For the Canadiens to make the playoffs and win some rounds they absolutely need a healthy Andrei Markov. Their goaltending will have to be reliable, though will not need to be excellent. And importantly, the team will have to ensure they have a varied point of attack going into the post-season (i.e., more than one line firing at once).
Neck on the line here. But did I add enough caveats or what? If they play like last year's team in spring, I'm free from this prediction – not very brave. Now that it's nearly September, I have to say that there is encouragement to be taken from how teams in the East have moved. Most below have done nothing or made more questionable moves than us. Those above haven't blown anyone away either.
Still, if things are right enough by season's end, I think a playoff scalp should be ours, no sweat.
5. How many points will your team get and where will they place in their division and conference?
LIW: 101 points: 2nd in the Northeast, 5th in the Eastern conference.
I'm pretty confident about the 101 points. But where this places us is anyone's best guess. That total can give you from 1st to 7th. But placement doesn't really matter too much. If you come first with 101 points, you can be sure there are 7 teams right behind you just as good as us in the Eastern conference playoff draw. If the Habs are 7th with 101 points, they'll have proven already they can be reckoned with.
I chose 5th as it would be nice to avoid the Bruins, just for variety. I don't think 2 teams from the Northeast will beat us, in which case 5th is Bruins free territory, guaranteed...
I'd be interested to know how all of you would have answered the same questions. Let us know what you think...
Always game to get my word in about the Habs, I happily contributed. For poolies like myself, you'll be interested to know that The Forecaster is now available on newsstands across Canada. If you want some fantasy predictions against which to weigh your own, then I recommend it. Also, you won't want to miss the blogger's section – Down Goes Brown rarely disappoints...
For those who are interested, here are the questions I was faced with and the answers I provided.
1. What lesson(s) did you learn about your team in 2008-09?
LIW: 2008-09 was a year of learning for Canadiens fans. We learned that we can't keep losing players in free agency for nothing, that our prospects are not as good as they may have been billed (yet) and that our player development at the NHL level needs a major overhaul (bye bye Carbo).
But it wasn't all negative. This season we also learned that the Canadiens organization will now be a bona fide playoff team again – if not yet a conference leader. They piled up points in the good times when injuries were few and opponents and games were easier. They recovered from a few major hiccups along the way. They managed through two months of porous goaltending. And, most importantly, they got it done in the latter stages.
Looking back now, things have certainly taken on a new light with all the changes. Apparently we can keep losing free agents – but not for nothing, since we gain others. I think Gainey learned a couple of the lessons I mentioned too, particularly that of player development – as he has clearly tried to improve on that front (Melanson, Livingston, Jarvis, Carbonneau all out and Martin's crew in).
2. What particular statistic reveals something about a notable team strength or weakness? (For example, you could include your team Save Percentage and explain that it indicates that your team needs to upgrade their goaltending)
LIW: Tomas Plekanec: 19 assists
Tomas was supposed to be our second-line centre. But playing on a line with Kovalev and Kostitsyn for large parts of the season (26 and 23 goal men), he only managed 19 assists. Tomas' statistic is symptomatic of a team whose forwards don't pass well between each other ("cycle" is a bad word in Montreal). For each goal scored by a forward, there was 1.26 assists, putting Montreal at 28th in the league in this category. More worrying than that is that the assist leaders among the forwards are all UFAs, leaving Plekanec the top man among the rest.
This stat will have to be turned around, and not just by Tomas, but by Latendresse, Higgins, Lapierre and Kostitsyn who all scored more than they provided. A little more cooperation up front would go a long way to making the team harder to defend against.
I stick by this Plekanec statistic. Call it chemistry if you want, but our 1a/b centre garnering a mere 19 assists when he was never really injured is not good. The total blow out of that line, or rather other teams' abilities to smother them was integral to our shortcomings. That said, save percentage in January and February was a close runner up.
3. Which player on your team do you feel fantasy hockey players should keep an eye on because you think he might have a breakout season in 09-10?
LIW: With a new coach, a system that will defend him from quality shots and a vote of confidence as the #1 goalie in Montreal, Carey will have a better fantasy season than last year. I expect him to start as many as 60 games and win at least half. Add to that the fact the Canadiens under Jacques Martin should be much better than a 2 shutout team and you have a far bigger fantasy season from Price.
For everything I say about Price and for all my reservations, I will say this – if your league awards goalie points by wins and shutous, Carey Price will see a jump. He can't be demoted, he's even more anointed this year than last and the Canadiens should allow less goals with their changes. Will he be a better goalie? That's anyone's guess, but that wasn't the question.
4. Do you expect your team to make the playoffs next season? How far do you think they can go in the post-season, and what they need to do to get there?
LIW: I think the Habs will make the playoffs again in 2009-10. Not only that, I believe they'll win some games and rounds when they get there – at least one.
But as we saw last year, predictions are conditional on things being right. For the Canadiens to make the playoffs and win some rounds they absolutely need a healthy Andrei Markov. Their goaltending will have to be reliable, though will not need to be excellent. And importantly, the team will have to ensure they have a varied point of attack going into the post-season (i.e., more than one line firing at once).
Neck on the line here. But did I add enough caveats or what? If they play like last year's team in spring, I'm free from this prediction – not very brave. Now that it's nearly September, I have to say that there is encouragement to be taken from how teams in the East have moved. Most below have done nothing or made more questionable moves than us. Those above haven't blown anyone away either.
Still, if things are right enough by season's end, I think a playoff scalp should be ours, no sweat.
5. How many points will your team get and where will they place in their division and conference?
LIW: 101 points: 2nd in the Northeast, 5th in the Eastern conference.
I'm pretty confident about the 101 points. But where this places us is anyone's best guess. That total can give you from 1st to 7th. But placement doesn't really matter too much. If you come first with 101 points, you can be sure there are 7 teams right behind you just as good as us in the Eastern conference playoff draw. If the Habs are 7th with 101 points, they'll have proven already they can be reckoned with.
I chose 5th as it would be nice to avoid the Bruins, just for variety. I don't think 2 teams from the Northeast will beat us, in which case 5th is Bruins free territory, guaranteed...
I'd be interested to know how all of you would have answered the same questions. Let us know what you think...
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