Power Rankings I
Last night's game against the Sabres was a better display for the Habs. They played the hockey their coach envisions for them and ended with a close loss. In the third, I thought they had the better of the play and on a different night might have tied the contest.
The story of the game, the camp really, has been the junior call-ups. last night Beaulieu showed no hesitation against NHLers and played the game like a kid who just knows he has nothing to shy away from. Gallagher extended his reputation and outshone the majority of forwards for his creativity and general quickness in the offensive zone.
I still believe these two have junior years ahead of them (one reason being their opportunity to play at the WJC), but a few more displays like this could change my mind and maybe those of the people who matter.
Besides the two exciting prospects, those actually vying for the better part of their two-way contracts had very mixed results. It's one thing to be overshadowed by a veteran player, quite another to lose limelight to a junior when these 8 days are your chance at the bit. Generally, the play went well, but one reason the result went the way it did is because many are too hesitanat to seize the day and influence the games in any real way. Their story in the power rankings below.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Showing posts with label AHL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AHL. Show all posts
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Roster Opening Power Rankings
Power Rankings II
Although I'd always advise people to keep their heads tied on for preseason results, that's not to say there's nothing to get excited about.
Just because reading game reports and inferring what might happen in the near future once teams care is not to be recommended doesn't mean the games aren't worth watching. The future of the team (or fragments of it) are there to be seen and this is fun.
Roster spots and career changing opportunities will be handed out, while for others doors will be closed (maybe for good). So for the remainder of training camp, I’m keeping my eye on the open spots and the remaining contenders by presenting to you the roster spot power rankings.
We'll start with the guys we know
Guaranteed NHL positions (in my opinion):
G (2): Carey Price, Peter Budaj
D (6): Hal Gill, Josh Gorges, Andrei Markov, Jaroslav Spacek, PK Subban, Yannick Weber
F (10): Lars Eller, Scott Gomez, Tomas Plekanec, Mike Cammalleri, Mathieu Darche, Travis Moen, Max Pacioretty, Erik Cole, Brian Gionta, Andrei Kostitsyn
That’s 18 roster spots locked of a possible 23 on the NHL squad with a much more wide open field on the AHL front. There won’t be another goalie and with the way the talent is balanced, I’d wager on 8 defencemen and 13 forwards. That means there are two open places at the back and 3 at the front.
Among those vying for their place in the organization, 30 already have pro contracts. But one of the guys is Leblanc who could still go back to junior if that decision was made. The rest of those guys are in the pros, and the math says that there aren’t enough NHL and AHL spots for them.
This is why I think that certain junior eligible players with plenty left to gain from going back to junior will be sent that route.
Guaranteed non-professional play (in my opinion):
G (1): Robin Gusse (already sent back)
D (4): Nathan Beaulieu, Darren Dietz (already), Morgan Ellis, Jarred Tinordi
F (5): Olivier Archambault, Michael Bournival, Etienne Brodeur (already), Brendan Gallagher, Dustin Walsh (already)
The remaing guys are fighting it out for the spots. here's how I see their progress:
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Power Rankings II
Although I'd always advise people to keep their heads tied on for preseason results, that's not to say there's nothing to get excited about.
Just because reading game reports and inferring what might happen in the near future once teams care is not to be recommended doesn't mean the games aren't worth watching. The future of the team (or fragments of it) are there to be seen and this is fun.
Roster spots and career changing opportunities will be handed out, while for others doors will be closed (maybe for good). So for the remainder of training camp, I’m keeping my eye on the open spots and the remaining contenders by presenting to you the roster spot power rankings.
We'll start with the guys we know
Guaranteed NHL positions (in my opinion):
G (2): Carey Price, Peter Budaj
D (6): Hal Gill, Josh Gorges, Andrei Markov, Jaroslav Spacek, PK Subban, Yannick Weber
F (10): Lars Eller, Scott Gomez, Tomas Plekanec, Mike Cammalleri, Mathieu Darche, Travis Moen, Max Pacioretty, Erik Cole, Brian Gionta, Andrei Kostitsyn
That’s 18 roster spots locked of a possible 23 on the NHL squad with a much more wide open field on the AHL front. There won’t be another goalie and with the way the talent is balanced, I’d wager on 8 defencemen and 13 forwards. That means there are two open places at the back and 3 at the front.
Among those vying for their place in the organization, 30 already have pro contracts. But one of the guys is Leblanc who could still go back to junior if that decision was made. The rest of those guys are in the pros, and the math says that there aren’t enough NHL and AHL spots for them.
This is why I think that certain junior eligible players with plenty left to gain from going back to junior will be sent that route.
Guaranteed non-professional play (in my opinion):
G (1): Robin Gusse (already sent back)
D (4): Nathan Beaulieu, Darren Dietz (already), Morgan Ellis, Jarred Tinordi
F (5): Olivier Archambault, Michael Bournival, Etienne Brodeur (already), Brendan Gallagher, Dustin Walsh (already)
The remaing guys are fighting it out for the spots. here's how I see their progress:
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Power Rankings II
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
How Much Are AHL Goals Worth?
Last week The Great Connecticut Hope was called up from Hamilton. With him he brings fan expectations of a transformed player, a newly-miinted NHL scoring machine.
While this could indeed be the future for Pacioretty and the Habs, it is far from a certainty. The call-up and the expectations together make it the perfect time to address what an AHL goal is worth at the NHL level.
AHL to NHL equivalency has been a topic of interest to statistics fiends for years. I can't really do full justice to the story, so I'll give you some links to start you on the treasure hunt, should you wish to follow that path (Behind the Net, Copper and Blue. To boil it down to the simplest conclusion, most people doing these calculations determined that the average AHL call-up will score less than half of the goals he scored in the minors once up in the big league.
An important consideration is that there are many examples of players who defy the rule and seem to exceed the pace they should score at in the NHL based on AHL numbers alone. Copper and Blue notes TJ Galiardi who scored at a clip that was 36% higher than his AHL rate - more than triple what the average would have had us expecting.
There are examples of this on the Habs too. Take Tomas Plekanec. He was a consistent 20-goalscorer at the AHL level (scoring 19, 23 then 29 goals in three seasons). Now he is a consistent 20-goalscorer at the NHL level (20, 29, 20, 25 in his last 4 seasons). Cammalleri scored a goal basically every other game at the AHL level and has done the same in his best NHL campaigns (including last season with playoffs).
Of course, when averages are fed by extreme cases of success, they are also often dragged back down by pretty extreme duds. look at the current AHL scoring leaders probably has more potential to bring down the average than to bring it up a la Galiardi. Jason Krog, Darren Haydar? Not all AHL scoring machines have an NHL-ready talent to translate. We love Mathieu Darche, but his 30+ goal days in the AHL won't be replicated in Montreal.
Basically this tells me something. Goalscorers score goals at all levels. A quick check will tell you that Kostitsyn, Gionta and Pouliot all scored with pretty good frequency down under as well. It also tells me that just glancing at AHL scoring stats probably won't tell me what i want to know.
Pacioretty ready to break free?
Perhaps he is. As I only have stats to go on and not many first hand viewings of late, I'll stay open-minded.
Let's imagine for a minute that he lives up to all expectation that he brings. He is a 0.63 GPG player at the NHL level. With the games remaining, that would mean he'd score 33 goals by season's end.
OK, not very realistic. let's try to account for a hot streak by averaging in his play in the AHL last season. That brings us to a more sane 0.42 goals per game, and 22 for the remainder of the season. Let's call this the best case scenario.
The average scenario would have him dropping production by more than 50%, multiplying his totals by a factor of 0.44. Based on his numbers from this year alone, the stats gurus would downgrade his 0.63 GPG to 0.28 GPG. In the remaining games that gives 14 goals.
Let's apply the same trick as above to account for a streak that probably doesn't represent his entire future. 0.42 GPG * 0.44 = 0.185 GPG. Based on this more realistic average projection, we'd expect him to get 9 or 10 goals. We'll call this the realist's expectation.
As for the pessimist. Well he's seen Pacioretty in the NHL before. By his calculation, MaxPac is a 0.07 GPG player, so he's looking forward to a grand total of 3 to 4 goals over the 52 remaining games unless Max is demoted. This is probably the worst case scenario.
3 to 22 goals. Where do I think he'll fit? In all honesty, based on his entire history in every league he's played in, somewhere just below the average. But I haven't seen him play this month.
Whatever the case may be, I think it's probably a good idea to temper expectations for the AHL leader in goals just now with a bit of statistical and reflective history. Pacioretty provides another option for a goal once in a while, but he's unlikely to supplant Mike Cammalleri for while.
While this could indeed be the future for Pacioretty and the Habs, it is far from a certainty. The call-up and the expectations together make it the perfect time to address what an AHL goal is worth at the NHL level.
AHL to NHL equivalency has been a topic of interest to statistics fiends for years. I can't really do full justice to the story, so I'll give you some links to start you on the treasure hunt, should you wish to follow that path (Behind the Net, Copper and Blue. To boil it down to the simplest conclusion, most people doing these calculations determined that the average AHL call-up will score less than half of the goals he scored in the minors once up in the big league.
An important consideration is that there are many examples of players who defy the rule and seem to exceed the pace they should score at in the NHL based on AHL numbers alone. Copper and Blue notes TJ Galiardi who scored at a clip that was 36% higher than his AHL rate - more than triple what the average would have had us expecting.
There are examples of this on the Habs too. Take Tomas Plekanec. He was a consistent 20-goalscorer at the AHL level (scoring 19, 23 then 29 goals in three seasons). Now he is a consistent 20-goalscorer at the NHL level (20, 29, 20, 25 in his last 4 seasons). Cammalleri scored a goal basically every other game at the AHL level and has done the same in his best NHL campaigns (including last season with playoffs).
Of course, when averages are fed by extreme cases of success, they are also often dragged back down by pretty extreme duds. look at the current AHL scoring leaders probably has more potential to bring down the average than to bring it up a la Galiardi. Jason Krog, Darren Haydar? Not all AHL scoring machines have an NHL-ready talent to translate. We love Mathieu Darche, but his 30+ goal days in the AHL won't be replicated in Montreal.
Basically this tells me something. Goalscorers score goals at all levels. A quick check will tell you that Kostitsyn, Gionta and Pouliot all scored with pretty good frequency down under as well. It also tells me that just glancing at AHL scoring stats probably won't tell me what i want to know.
Pacioretty ready to break free?
Perhaps he is. As I only have stats to go on and not many first hand viewings of late, I'll stay open-minded.
Let's imagine for a minute that he lives up to all expectation that he brings. He is a 0.63 GPG player at the NHL level. With the games remaining, that would mean he'd score 33 goals by season's end.
OK, not very realistic. let's try to account for a hot streak by averaging in his play in the AHL last season. That brings us to a more sane 0.42 goals per game, and 22 for the remainder of the season. Let's call this the best case scenario.
The average scenario would have him dropping production by more than 50%, multiplying his totals by a factor of 0.44. Based on his numbers from this year alone, the stats gurus would downgrade his 0.63 GPG to 0.28 GPG. In the remaining games that gives 14 goals.
Let's apply the same trick as above to account for a streak that probably doesn't represent his entire future. 0.42 GPG * 0.44 = 0.185 GPG. Based on this more realistic average projection, we'd expect him to get 9 or 10 goals. We'll call this the realist's expectation.
As for the pessimist. Well he's seen Pacioretty in the NHL before. By his calculation, MaxPac is a 0.07 GPG player, so he's looking forward to a grand total of 3 to 4 goals over the 52 remaining games unless Max is demoted. This is probably the worst case scenario.
3 to 22 goals. Where do I think he'll fit? In all honesty, based on his entire history in every league he's played in, somewhere just below the average. But I haven't seen him play this month.
Whatever the case may be, I think it's probably a good idea to temper expectations for the AHL leader in goals just now with a bit of statistical and reflective history. Pacioretty provides another option for a goal once in a while, but he's unlikely to supplant Mike Cammalleri for while.
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Adieu Guy Boucher
This past week, the Montreal Canadiens lost their young dauphin, the rising star that is Guy Boucher. A French Canadian student of the game who has succeeded at every level so far due to his diligence and the creative new development of tactics.
He’s the coach that any team would want. Eventually.
Habs fan reaction has been predictably sour on this departure. Boucher was seen as a star signing last season, even before he went to work for the organization. Following a season of success in the AHL and of player development the likes of which we have seldom seen in three decades in Montreal, his star only seemed brighter.
My personal take on this is that the Habs did the right thing here.
First, they did the right thing for the man. Boucher now leaves the Canadiens family with nothing but cherished memories. This will always be the team that gave him his break, and now too the team that didn’t begrudge him his next one.
Second, they honour their commitment to Jacques Martin, who like his calm demeanor or not, must be given loads of credit for his revamp of the team that can suddenly compete with the big boys.
Finally, they didn’t panic. Panic would have been hiring Boucher on as head coach for fear that he may be great. Such hirings are unwise, as they take us further from the well laid plan that was so painful to instigate one short year ago. A veteran coach was needed, and probably still is, while veterans are forged from the young generation of leaders coming through.
Still reasons to denounce this move do exist. In the vein of a Leclair trade that still haunts many a fan’s dreams, there’s the what if? What if Boucher wins the Cup elsewhere? What if he wins the Jack Adams?
It’s easy to get caught up in all these what ifs, but often forgot is the other side of the coin: What if Guy Boucher takes time to adjust to the league like the vast majority of coaches who come through?
Among the reasons to take confident comfort in this move, the story of one William Scott Bowman is foremost.
Scotty Bowman entered the Canadiens organization as a star more than 50 years before Guy Boucher ever did. At his hiring in the early 1950s, Bowman was a former junior Canadien who had impressed his mentors. Early in his post-player days, Scotty was made assistant of the Junior Canadiens under the mercurial Sam Pollock. Memorial Cup finals and championships followed as he made his name within the Forum’s halls.
After stints coaching in Ottawa and Peterborough, Scotty was moved internally to the position of chief scout of amateur talent (a latter-day Trevor Timmins). In any case, the Canadiens weren’t going to let his feet get cold. When he was ready, he took full duties as coach of the Montreal Junior Canadiens ¬ the main feeder to the star-laden team in the NHL.
Then, in 1967-68, the NHL expanded its operations to include 6 more cities. Opportunities that had been sewn up by playing and coaching talent alike until then were suddenly doubled. For the Canadiens, this presented a choice. Would Scotty Bowman be shoehorned into the pro ranks alongside Toe Blake, would they put their organizational foot down and try to bar his way, or would they let the star they had nurtured fly the coop.
They chose the latter and Scotty was allowed to depart in order to become an assistant to Lynn Patrick in St. Louis. As Scotty recalls it, he decided to take a chance then too:
"Montreal was a very strong team at the time. Toe Blake was coaching. I got a chance to go to the NHL when they expanded. It's hard to turn down a chance to get into the NHL. I was coaching the Junior Canadiens who had moved back to Montreal. I got the opportunity to go to St. Louis from Lynn Patrick. He was going to be the general manager, and I coached his son Craig in junior hockey in Montreal. When he got the job with the Blues, he hired me as his assistant. I decided I really should take a chance. I was fortunate the league expanded and I got an opportunity to get to one of the expansion franchises."His time in St. Louis was a success, after becoming head coach after mere weeks into the season, Scotty’s teams went on to reach the finals in each of his first three seasons in the NHL. No doubt Scotty learned much.
Apprenticeship completed, his old head coach and friend Sam Pollock convinced Scotty to rejoin his hometown club in 1971. The rest is history.
Guy Boucher may never match Scotty Bowman’s achievements, but his path to the NHL coaching ranks is at least somewhat similar. In both cases, the coaches had keen eyes for talent, a commitment to winning and the determination to outstretch their rival coaches. Both were also known stars of the Canadiens organizations they were part of.
In following Bowman’s path out of the Canadiens family to stretch his legs, we hope that the similarities continue ¬ there’s really nothing else to be done. In the new world of the NHL, where teams from one season rarely resemble the one three years down the line, there’s no real reason to fret over Boucher. We simply hope he can learn and thrive while keeping the candle he has for the Canadiens organization flickering until the opportunity for his return may come.
Suivant, next.
On a related note, one would think that the hiring of Guy Boucher last year will have taught the Canadiens management team a valuable lesson about installing quality personnel under the main team. I hope that in addition to holding early camps, firing scouts, signing Americans and negotiating with Plekanec that Gauthier is dedicating a substantial slab of time to scouting the next Bulldogs coach.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Halak of respect?
Apart form the growing buzz of Habs fans singing Price, Price, Price, all of the newspapers and Habs blogs these days are talking up the former first rounder. One of, if not my favourite, Habs blog (eyesontheprize) guarantees, with a bit of bravado, that Carey Price will start the season in Montreal. Why? Well the Calder Cup run proved he has nothing to learn in the AHL of course.
I was as thrilled as anyone when the Bulldogs won the Calder Cup, but the resulting hype surrounding Carey Price has been ridiculous. The guy won the Calder Cup and the playoff MVP with his stellar play. All this in addition to his eye-catching play at the 2006 WJC.
Both fine achievements. No doubt.
Before we hand Carey the keys to the Bell Centre, maybe it’s worth considering what he did the other 80 games of his season (and prior to last year)– the ones with his team, the Tri-city Americans:
1) Carey Price compiled decent stats with 2.45 GAA (7th) and .917 S% (3rd), the two players that beat him out in save % – Leland Irving in both categories (1.86, .929), Taylor Dakers (2.16, .919) – show that he probably wasn’t the top goalie over the WHL season. Tyson Sexsmith, who beat Carey in GAA (with 1.79) also won the Memorial Cup with his Vancouver Giants.
It’s worth noting that none of the three is slated to play in the NHL for certain this year.
2) Carey’s heroics didn’t pay off for his team last season. They finished 4th in the league, but were eliminated in the first round of the WHL playoffs. Carey Price did best again in save %, good enough for 7th in the WHL playoffs. Both Dakers and Sexsmith bested him again
3) His stats from the year before suggest that he was never the top WHL goalie (2.87 GAA and .906 save %), which made him look like an average to below average WHL goalie. And another first round elimination with a sub-900 save % in the playoffs, didn’t exactly point to big-game pedigree at the time.
What these stats show me is that Carey is very much a can-miss prospect. Let’s face it Team Canada goalies always look good. I mean we don’t think Pogge will be a star do we? And the Hamilton Cup run shows real improvement from Carey, especially following the disappointing elimination of his own team (which consequently freed him up to play for the Bulldogs).
The foolhardiness of proclaiming him an NHLer already belies a skewed perspective, one with blinders to the majority of his form last year.
It also belittles the accomplishments of our other prospect goalie: Jaroslav Halak. He who led the AHL in most statistics for the entire season. He who faced NHL shooters and won his games under pressure. And were it not for a hugely complimentary call-up to his country’s senior national team, he may have taken his NHL-enhanced confidence to the Calder Cup as well. Halak, who was purported in the same article, to have a lot left to learn in the AHL, actually has a claim to having done all he can down there as well in my eyes – perhaps even a better one than Carey Price.
Don't get me wrong though. I very much support the idea of Carey Price in Montreal, even to start. But I would like him to earn that job. I think Gainey is probably on the same page as me here. In fact, I'll make a guarantee of my own:
Carey Price will not start the season in Montreal if Halak and Huet outplay him in training camp.
It would not be a waste for him to play in Hamilton by any means as suggested by eyesontheprize, simply because he could benefit from learning how to put together 60 games in a season. Even Carey Price knows that, he's said as much on more than one occasion.
I was as thrilled as anyone when the Bulldogs won the Calder Cup, but the resulting hype surrounding Carey Price has been ridiculous. The guy won the Calder Cup and the playoff MVP with his stellar play. All this in addition to his eye-catching play at the 2006 WJC.
Both fine achievements. No doubt.
Before we hand Carey the keys to the Bell Centre, maybe it’s worth considering what he did the other 80 games of his season (and prior to last year)– the ones with his team, the Tri-city Americans:
1) Carey Price compiled decent stats with 2.45 GAA (7th) and .917 S% (3rd), the two players that beat him out in save % – Leland Irving in both categories (1.86, .929), Taylor Dakers (2.16, .919) – show that he probably wasn’t the top goalie over the WHL season. Tyson Sexsmith, who beat Carey in GAA (with 1.79) also won the Memorial Cup with his Vancouver Giants.
It’s worth noting that none of the three is slated to play in the NHL for certain this year.
2) Carey’s heroics didn’t pay off for his team last season. They finished 4th in the league, but were eliminated in the first round of the WHL playoffs. Carey Price did best again in save %, good enough for 7th in the WHL playoffs. Both Dakers and Sexsmith bested him again
3) His stats from the year before suggest that he was never the top WHL goalie (2.87 GAA and .906 save %), which made him look like an average to below average WHL goalie. And another first round elimination with a sub-900 save % in the playoffs, didn’t exactly point to big-game pedigree at the time.
What these stats show me is that Carey is very much a can-miss prospect. Let’s face it Team Canada goalies always look good. I mean we don’t think Pogge will be a star do we? And the Hamilton Cup run shows real improvement from Carey, especially following the disappointing elimination of his own team (which consequently freed him up to play for the Bulldogs).
The foolhardiness of proclaiming him an NHLer already belies a skewed perspective, one with blinders to the majority of his form last year.
It also belittles the accomplishments of our other prospect goalie: Jaroslav Halak. He who led the AHL in most statistics for the entire season. He who faced NHL shooters and won his games under pressure. And were it not for a hugely complimentary call-up to his country’s senior national team, he may have taken his NHL-enhanced confidence to the Calder Cup as well. Halak, who was purported in the same article, to have a lot left to learn in the AHL, actually has a claim to having done all he can down there as well in my eyes – perhaps even a better one than Carey Price.
Don't get me wrong though. I very much support the idea of Carey Price in Montreal, even to start. But I would like him to earn that job. I think Gainey is probably on the same page as me here. In fact, I'll make a guarantee of my own:
Carey Price will not start the season in Montreal if Halak and Huet outplay him in training camp.
It would not be a waste for him to play in Hamilton by any means as suggested by eyesontheprize, simply because he could benefit from learning how to put together 60 games in a season. Even Carey Price knows that, he's said as much on more than one occasion.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)