Game # 76 Habs Get An Early Taste Of Playoff Hockey

Details

Date: 27/03/10
Opponent: Devils
Location: Montreal

Loss: 2-4

Habs Goalie: Halak (L)
Opposition Goalie: Brodeur (W)

Habs goalscorers: A. Kostitsyn, Plekanec
Opposition goalscorers: Elias, Langenbrunner, Zubrus, Rolston

Play of the game

The Devils were pretty tight tonight (when Skoula wasn't on) and it took creativity and sharpness to undo their defence. The cliche goes that a team must keep up a consistent level of forecheck and effort in order to wear an opponent down, only then breaking through. It's not exactly true. A team can also put together momentary flashes of brilliance for their breakthroughs. 4 of those ending in goals beats many games of 65% possession. My favourite play of the night came to nothing in the end, but was quick, sharp and very clever – it was more elite than a lot of what we've seen. Cammalleri, Plekanec and Kostitsyn were breaking in together and unlike their 3-on-2 that ended after a skirmish in a messy and somewhat questionable goal, their break in was smoothe. From there, they fanned out, AK the trailer. Andrei passed very firmly to Tomas who without a second's thought sent it back again. The defence on ther heels, Andrei unleashed a hard shot immediately. It was blocked, but I tell you, try that play again and it will be better than 25 Benoit Brunet dump ins.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Tomas Plekanec
His line played most against Elias, Langenbrunner and Parise – the original Devils style line. Given good efforts from all those players, I thought Tomas and his linemates did very well. Pleks himself had a hand in a few nice plays, and his goal was a masterful and stealthy redirection. I don't know if he's 1/2 injured, 3/4 healthy or what. The way he seems to be enjoying Cammalleri's return, I find no reason to harp on his minor knocks.

Andrei Kostitsyn – Game Puck
Andrei will never please those who adhere to the tenet that everything in hockey comes through hard work. I have seen hard workers come and go in the hundreds, and I'd rather have Andrei's shot with the combination of positioning and luck that he had in this game. The first goal was a goalscorer's effort. The second goal was his miss, kept alive by his presence of mind and ending with his forceful pass to Pleks' skate. The scoresheet only records 2 shots, but he was the engine behind many good chances.

Mike Cammalleri
The time has come to recognise Cammalleri following his return. First of all, someone needs to be congratulated about bringing players back who are ready to go and contribute from the first shift. Past years players must have been rushed back, as we've never seen anything like these healthy bodies being reinserted. Mike himself must also be commended for approaching each game back as if nothing had happened at all. This game I mistook Mike for Gomez on a few occasions as he flew across my screen – his new knee looking the least of his concerns. There were also two assists on the two goals, and the fact that he was part of all these dangerous moves that I've been discussing.

Defencemen

Roman Hamrlik
Fresh off a proud dome appearance, Roman repaid the recognition with another good game. Playing big minutes again, Hammer was often facing down either Kovalchuk's combo or Parise's. He made his mistakes (as highlighted on the 4-on-4 "tripping" play by RDS, but he also won a lot of the puck for his team. It was mostly sound and lacked the wild "Hail Mary" style that Markov was bent on trying out, a reliable game.

Jaroslav Spacek
Spacek played the most minutes of any defender in this game, and he played the hard minutes too. I thought he made his mistakes like Hammer, but they were fewer than say Gorges. I wouldn't go so far as saying the Devils looked like they disliked playing this pairing. With Spacek there, though, it seems the nights of being penned in for periods at a time by this team from NJ may be on the way out.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak
While he made some very good saves, a couple even with the game on the verge of getting out of reach, he still lost. In typical fashion (at least for this season) he dd keep the contest alive. In fact, some of his best saves were made once the Devils opened their account, but before the Habs scored, and also when the Devils were up 3-2. This wasn't a loss to be blamed on Halak, nor would I have given the goalie the game puck had a late one popped in to be followed by a shootout win. Average to below average by his new standards.

Comments

The first thing you notice when you end a period against the Devils is that they're a cut above the Panthers. As a team, they do things right. They anticipate better, the find better position, they don't waste many passes. Facing a team like this takes a big adjustment after some of the games the Habs have just come through. Waiting for the puck on the boards (Gionta) won't do, passes an inch off or too feathery (Pouliot) will be picked off. The Canadiens knew this was coming of course, but any team coming off a Panthers game could be forgiven for being caught by the new pace.

The team came out very well and dominated early. Two things happened to turn the tide, though – Brodeur saved everything and Metropolit got injured. The Brodeur saves meant the Canadiens had expended a lot for a nice display and some marks in the shots column, their resulting fatige was to be seen in the third. Losing Metro meat Martin cut his bench to three lines, pretty much, only compounding that fatigue issue in the end.

Overall, the game was not a complete loss. As I said in the play of the game, there were occasions to sit up and take notice of an offensive move – something previous editions would have been proud to say once a season vs. the Devils. The defensive play was mostly tidy, and apart from two early (and costly) pens, discipline was dead on. If the Devils gave a rendition of some playoff hockey this night, then the Habs didn't make fools of themselves. If the Devils are indeed to be the first opponent, I don't see reason to throw up the white flag, even with the loss.

Anyway, 6 more games. 6-7 points must be found. Twice Carolina, Islanders, Philly, Buffalo and the league's annual close-out game between habs and Leafs. It should be an interesting and nerve-racking two weeks. Hope you enjoy.

League Table Gazing A Strange Fixation

As we settle down following round 12 of the goalie debate, the default is to look at the standings and decide what is on the horizon.

Last week, we were "out of the playoffs", teams had games in hand, there was little hope. This week, we're "in the playoffs", teams have played their extra games, things look up. Yet, the difference between last week and this was 2 wins and an OTL. Are you telling me the world has changed in 3 games?

The language of the standings

Can we please just inject a little bit of sanity to this daily discussion. Today Mike Boone tried to explain the connotations of every win-loss scenario that could occur this evening. In a bit of self-mockery, he once again called the game a 4-pointer. He's technically right. But then every game is a 4-pointer. If Florida loses every game after this one, then it's really only a two pointer for the Habs. That's because the playoffs don't begin tomorrow.

Since it is January, not April, I have some suggestions:

Not "in" or "out" of the playoffs

Can we not say the Habs are "in" or "out" every five minutes?

Let's clear something up. If the Habs lose tonight, they are not out of the playoffs. They are not in, if they win. All they do is increase their chances.

The standings are useful to remind inform us on wins that have happened, but they don't tell us much about the future. Just as they didn't tell us last week that St. Louis was a hotter opponent than the Devils.


Not every game has to define a season

A week ago, JT of The H Does Not... asked "What is this team playing for?". Today she's upping the drama for tonight's game by insinuating it will define a season. I know what she's getting at. We all talk about must wins, but let's try to learn from the lessons of a mere week ago: The season doesn't turn on a game.

Can we please relay the importance without looking for turning points as they happen, when nothing is turning, just continuing in the cycle of up and down.

This game means nothing more than next game or the game after that. All points count, but you only need to win half your games to make the playoffs. Losses are par for the course.


This year is not so special

"Oh, the playoffs have begun early this year." Actually, it's just the inane fretting that's begun early. Every season ends with a half dozen teams jostling for a couple of places. This season isn't so different. The big difference, so far as I can tell is that the West has dominated in interleague play and have brought about confusion as to what a good point total should be.


No one wins a tie break because they've played less games

There are established tie breaks, playing less games is not one of them. It would be more useful to discuss the real tie breaks, like season series, wins and goal differential. The Habs beat the Panthers, by the way, on each.


Playoff predictions

A fun website to keep an eye on, though not to worry too much about, at this time of year is Sports Club Stats. They use algorithms with goals scored and allowed, wins and losses and opponents to come up with a playoff probability. To give you an idea of how much sense this makes in January:

If you can find the Canadiens with the cursor, you'll see their past week has boosted their chances by 26% to make them the leading contender for 8th. The Rangers had the opposite week. To watch game-by-game at this point is a roller coaster ride. To make declarations based on a single game at this point makes little to no sense at all.

For your amusement, if the Canadiens do win tonight, the website says the Habs playoff chances will rise by about 8%. Down 8% if they lose. The Panthers see similar gains and losses. It's impressive, but guess what? Next game promises to have big implications too (maybe bigger), and the one after that, and the one after...

The Canadiens lowest probability of making the playoffs last season was about 83%. They made the playoffs, but on a tie break. The Hurricanes had a 21% chance of making the playoffs in January 2009, they played in the conference finals.


Frustrating as it may be, in the age of instant gratification, by all indications we'll probably have to wait for the games to be played before we can see who's in the playoffs, who holds the tie breaks, which games literally eliminate people from contention. The sooner we all realise that, the better.

Come On Habs Fans Plenty of reason to be positive

If you watched the games this weekend, you'd be feeling down enough. But the Montreal media, the blogosphere and frothing pessimists have taken this 50-game mark as a definitive opportunity to kick all optimists while they're down.

I have to concede that we do join in the fun. In my case, I tried to limit the sucker punch to the area of your cranium reserved for feelings of pity and/or NHL forwards incapable of, well, going forward. But in general I think we try to portray our general and misguided optimism that once led us to believe the Habs would score 5 goals in 20 minutes to keep the playoff series against the Canes alive and still leads us to believe that anything is possible in 2010.

On that note, I direct all the pessimists to read the latest doom and gloom churned out from Pat Hickey and Eyes on the Prize. I invite all left (optimists, I presume) to consider all the good stuff ahead:


1) We won't need 93 points this year

A lot of articles point to the wins the Canadiens will need to achieve their 2009 point total which saw them into the playoffs on a tie-break. Don't believe the hype. Because the whole East has done a tremendous impression of the Southeast division this year, the West has won 96 of 170 contests. That means there are less points to actually go around.

Because some games are East vs. East, there are a minimum number or points left to be spread around us and our rivals. By my count the minimum is 392 points (or about 26 points each), but that would mean no OTLs and losing all games to the West form here. The maximum is 788 points (or 52 each), which means winning all Western games and going to OT each and every time out in intra-conference games – just as nonsensical.

Consider this, though, if trends continue as they've been going then there are 537 points to go around all Eastern teams. That means about 36 points each. If the Canadiens steal points over and above 36 from the right teams (or if Western teams, top Eastern or bottom Eastern teams do) then we're in like Flynn.

So banish 93. I won't promise 86 points will do it, but it could well suffice. 18 wins from 32 games doesn't seem impossible. Neither does 15-11-6...


2) More interesting games

I'm not only referring to Habs games here – those are always interesting. But maybe you'll all join me in becoming the newest big fans of New Jersey, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Washington and every Western team playing the East.

At the beginning of the year, I couldn't care less about Sabres v. Panthers or Caps v. Isles. But now these games take on a new sheen. If the Canadiens had put more points in the bank, what would I worry about when Sportscentre fires up on off days?


3) Some GMs are ready to take the dive

In Montreal, it's unheard of. Tank a season? No chance. But as parity is shown to be for the mediocre, teams that see little chance of Stanley's Cup may look to the lottery ball instead. Teams like Tampa who need more young core, Florida who can't alienate anymore fans and Hurricanes who might finally tank it properly all could go for it. We play these teams. We can win these games if they let us.


4) Teams will start playing their back-ups

It goes hand in hand with the above, but winning teams will also join the ranks. When planning for long runs of games and expected playoff workloads, back-up goalies start to see the light of day. If you were choosing teams to send Yann Danis against, wouldn't league worst in shots for look good? Ah, our clever ruse...


5) More features on Latendresse, Koivu and Kovalev

At first it seemed like we may miss our old friends, but as the Habs slip while others flourish (more or less), we get constant updates on how our departed heroes are doing. It makes it seem like they never left.


6) You can enjoy the Olympic hockey for the hockey

Imagine if you can being a Pens fan. The Olympics are a nightmare. First of all, your country entrusted player selection to a crack team of GMs who haven't seen the happy side of 90 points in some time. Next, all your best players are going and playing for countries you've barely heard of, let alone can point to on a map (Canada, Russia) and risk injuring themselves in a pursuit you don't understand.

The Habs have no such conundrum. Firstly, many players played poorly enough thus far to ensure a lengthy beach volleyball tournament will be their only chance at injury in late February. Secondly, what's the difference? The Olympic medal will be the only award anyone of the players gets a chance to look at this season. No one, after Pat Hickey has confirmed our doom, need worry about a twisted ankle ruining a Cup run.


So you see there's plenty to keep your spirits up. A few are reasons to believe this mediocrity will be enough, some that the mediocrity will bring benefits and then the final consolations of the Olympic tournament.

It's not as bad as the naysayers say. Keep the chins up Habs fans. Go Habs. Go.

Behind 98 Point Pace

For the first time since Game 3 of the season, the Canadiens have fallen behind the eight ball in their attempt to reach my selected target of 98 points.

A few weeks ago, the team was in the enviable position of needing only a single point every game to make the target, or winning every other game. Since that time, they've lost the pace and now need to find an extra 6 points to regain that privilege.

Even though they currently sit precariously in 5th place, their pace at the moment would 97 points – which should be good enough for 5th but no higher based on past performances.

However, if OTLs continue to build as they have been, the 97 points might be enough for the playoffs but perhaps a lower seed.

Overtime losing has it's benefits

Robert L at Eyes on the Prize has the sneaking suspicion that the Habs recored may be fooling everyone into thinking they are better than they are.

Well, he's right isn't he?

Overtime losses do skew the results a little, but I would like to point out a few reasons we should at least be optimistic about the Habs:

1) Many of their OTLs were actually shootout losses. So they didn't actually lose those games. Let's say they tied, with the opponents getting a bonus point. The Canadiens are 2-5 in the shootout, so let's say then that they are 17-13-2 with 5 ties and 2 bonus points. As you can see it's above .500 in actual game play.


2) As much as we dislike them, OTLs do count for points. As I've harped on and on about, in the end points are all that matter in the regular season. I would rather get a point for losing and have a skewed feeling about where we stand than not. I bet the Islanders and Leafs didn't mind beating us last year on the strength of 5 and 6 more OTLs each.

3) Nothing is more disheartening than a 4-0 loss. So, any game that goes to OT is a game we played well enough (or almost) to win. 26/39 is very good in that light. Take into account there were a few games lost before OT that the Habs could have won, then the picture looks alright. Of course, most Eastern teams could do the same exercise for a feel good exercise, but that's why you go back to Point 2 (above) and give less credence to rationalizations like this and more to concrete points.

4) The Habs have 19 wins out of 39. If points were only awarded for winning, we would still be in playoff striking range (T8).

5) The Habs are just below the pace for 96 points (94.6 to be exact). With 3 points in the next 2 games, the Canadiens would be halfway to a 96-point season – the very target I set out. I think we'd all agree that 96 points would be a success and a good step towards improvement and possible playoff success.

Come on Habs fans. Chins up. The kids are alright...