Showing posts with label non-playoff teams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label non-playoff teams. Show all posts

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Game #76

Dubious Calls, PK Serve Habs And Flyers Goals

Details



Date: 24/03/2012
Opponent: Flyers
Location: Philadelphia

Loss: 1-4

Habs Goalie: Budaj (L)
Opposition Goalie: Bryzgalov (W)

Habs goalscorers: Plekanec
Opposition goalscorers: Timonen, Briere (2), Read



Play of the game


I thought the lone goal was a beauty. My favourite aspect was the instinctual no-hesitation pass made by Lars Eller to a Plekanec on the break. So often a second of thought can diffuse an opportunity like this one. The right play through the brief window of opportunity allowed Pleks to display his talents as goalscorer one more time this season.



Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Lars Eller - Game Puck
I really found Eller suited to the Flyers defensive coverage. Their reliance on size was met by determination on his part and he frequently slipped his coverage to get excellent position. His early pass, had it been to Kostitsyn, or anyone but the abysmal Rene Bourque, might have been the highlight goal. There was his play of the game pass and a few more.

David Desharnais
Desharnais didn't win the best short guy award in this contest. Neither did he make me want to turn off the TV with over the top celebration and weaselly smirk. Once again, David was on the ball in his play, often dissecting the defence with a quick and precise pass. On the puck, he is prone to bumping, but amazingly seems to end games leaving a better impression of puck protection than his much taller and heavier counterparts.

Tomas Plekanec
This game was a microcosm of Plekanec's season. On the whole, one would have to say he's still proficient and a positive contributor to the team. He is generally good on the PK (despite the goals that ended up going in this one). But he can trace his lack of goals this season to the fact that most of his chances seem to come now on breakaways, with few people finding him in established shooting positions, on the PP or not. I look to his return to goalscoring next year, though it probably depends on a winger transplant of fairly significant proportion.


Defencemen

Alexei Emelin
This game wasn't a shining moment for an NHL defence. Emelin did OK in what he does. He ended up with a good number of his custom hits and frustrating the Flyers on several occasions. As he matures, he continues to show glimpses of an offensive instinct that I feel we will be thankful for when he can replace the now almost clueless Gorges on PP assignments.

Andrei Markov
The PP was not successful, but this was perhaps not Markov's fault. He is still the calm and confident QB that offers hope for something better. Yet again, he made plays that rank so high above anything that we saw before his return. Drawing the penalty on a late PP should have paid off, but for no one willing to stand in front of the net for shots on the 5-on-3 (whether it's their supposed MO or not).

Goaltender

Carey Price
Budaj was alright, but ultimately below the standard necessary to compete against a team like the Flyers. The positive aspect of this for the management and fans is that this is exactly the result we wished for when we heard Carey would rest. Budaj fulfilled the mission by allowing Briere an opening that should never have been there on goal three and sealing his team's fate in doing so. It's not often, a goalie will get kudos from me for being less than even his own best, but on a night his team was risking playing into points, he answered the call.


Comments

This is what games would have been like were it not for Hal Gill and the amazing PK this season. The Canadiens lulled into being near Flyers who fell or whose sticks needed a nudge to break would have lost games this way. The game was not as lopsided as the score indicated, but it served the goals of both teams at this point of the season. The Flyers got their points as they stretch themselves to gain home ice against either Pittsburgh or NJ. The Canadiens quietly lose another, cling onto 3rd place in their own race and erase another game in which they might have accidentally hurt their future prospects.

The question has been asked, and was examined again, whether the Canadiens can repeat the feats of the playoff eschewing Flyers from 2007. I would suggest there's a lot of ground to make up. Even if one suggests that the Canadiens stable is the equal of the Flyers youngsters back then, the Habs just never did enough at the trade deadline -- Geoffrion and some second rounders won't surpass Coburn, and the Flyers return for Forsberg that season. The reall proof will be in June and July when we watch to see if the Canadiens can match the haul of Timonen, Hartnell and Briere that Holmgren managed to really overhaul his fortunes. We accept that Markov can be the Timonen piece by virtue of return, but the Habs may still need to show grab a couple more forwards ready to produce now if the Habs hope to accomplish anything close to a Philly turnaround.

Last night was also, as it happens, the night the Habs were formally eliminated from the playoffs (so poor is the East this season). With a full bandwagon now to back the losses, it should be an interesting final 6 games. All that remains in their way are the other teams who are due to fall by the playoff wayside in short order.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Boston's Cherry-Picking Season Is Over

Third-ranked Boston. 103 Points. 246 GF, 195 GA.

Powerhouse.

Or not?


The Boston Bruins did a classic job on this season. They got the points where they should, they scored in bunches and they rode the best save percentage of all time to place 3rd in the East.

The stats that look unbeatable, and maybe feel unbeatable if one only chooses to remember the final meeting between these particular teams, only look that way thanks to the placement of more than a few cherries.

A look at their record broken down in a few ways:

Vs. Eastern Conference teams: 38-18-8
Vs. Western Conference teams: 8-7-3

Vs. Eastern Playoff teams: 16-11-5
Vs. Western Playoff teams: 3-6-2

Vs. Eastern Non-Playoff teams: 22-7-3
Vs. Western Non-Playoff teams: 5-1-1

Vs. Playoff teams: 19-17-7
Vs. Non-Playoff teams: 27-8-4


More often than not, when faced with a team that proved themselves over a season to be of superior calibre, the Bruins would lose the game. They lost 24 times in 43 meetings in fact, Their record is like that of a team that lost six 7-game playoff series 3 game to 4.

Oh, but they won games. A ton of games against feebler opposition. 27 wins out of a possible 39.


In regular season percentages, this shows that the Bruins were a 0.744 team against non-playoff opposition and barely middling (0.523 with OTLs credited) against decent opposition. In the more unforgiving playoff win-lose method, they are a 0.690 team against weaklings and a weak 0.442 against opposition that is still alive now.

This is classic cherry picking and it shows up the Bruins as a real challenge to the Cup, in my opinion. It's one thing to impress against the Islanders and quite another to put up results against the contenders.

This is not to say that the Bruins didn't best some playoff teams in a season series -- they did. But they were essentially 0.500 against Eastern playoff teams and poor against the West. Part of their problem right now is their poor record was in large part fuelled by the 2-3-1 showing against the Montreal Canadiens.


But don't all playoff teams do this?

I haven't done the full analysis. But I did look at one other team (guess which?)

Vs. Eastern Conference teams: 36-21-7 (38-18-8)
Vs. Western Conference teams: 8-8-2 (8-7-3)

Vs. Eastern Playoff teams: 17-11-4 (16-11-5)
Vs. Western Playoff teams: 6-2-1 (3-6-2)

Vs. Eastern Non-Playoff teams: 19-10-3 (22-7-3)
Vs. Western Non-Playoff teams: 2-6-1 (5-1-1)

Vs. Playoff teams: 23-13-5 (19-17-7)
Vs. Non-Playoff teams: 21-16-4 (27-8-4)


The Habs were actually better against teams that eventually made the playoffs than against those that didn't -- handy when those that made the playoffs are those left to be played. Where the Bruins cherry picked their way to a deceptive points total, the Canadiens total actually belies some of the underlying achievements.

The playoffs are the great equalizer, they say. And a playoff series begins a fresh season. This may be so, but coming in wouldn't you rather be supporting the team that has shown it can win a lot of hard fought games with tough opposition than the one who took the easy lobs and fluffed a lot of the sterner tests?