The other day I read that Josh Gorges better look out at arbitration, because he is in fact the worst defenceman in the entire league at putting shots on net – or at least he was last season.
The stats compiled by Scott Cullen at TSN rely on two statistics – shots on goal and missed shots. Add them together and one can get an idea of how many shots released by a player actually hit the net. Josh Gorges was the worst Dman in the league with a meager 51.3% of his shots actually hitting the net. I’m not sure this will really be the breaking point for Gorges, however, as he only directed 39 shots on or off the net anyway.
Still, the article did inspire me to delve a little deeper into the stats I collected this past season. For your summertime pleasure, then, I present a look into chances, shots and attempts for the 2010-11 Montreal Canadiens (regular season).
Shots on net
Credit to Scott Cullen for a good topical subject. To go further, however, I am going to look at all shots (not just the ones recorded on the NHL’s main page) from the season, including those that were blocked by defenders.
Sadly for Josh Gorges, the news gets worse. When we factor in his 23 blocked attempts, we actually find that he only got 32% of the shots released from his stick on net. I don’t know how the NHL stacks up in this regard, but I can tell you only Andreas Engqvist was worse on the Habs, and he only had 4 attempts.
% shots/attempt
Top tier (>60%): Moen (72%), Lapierre, White, Desharnais, Pouliot
Second tier (51-60%): Dawes, O’Byrne, Pacioretty, Mara, Darche, Gionta, Plekanec, Gomez, Cammalleri, Halpern, Pyatt, Markov, Kostitsyn, Subban
Third tier (41-50%): Palushaj, Nash, Wisniewski, Hamrlik, Eller, Gill, Picard, Boyd
Bottom tier (<40%): Weber, Spacek, Sopel, Gorges, Engqvist (25%)
From this data, I think we can infer a few things. First, forwards have clearer sightlines and so generally convert more of their attempts into shots on net. Second, getting shots on net is not really a great measure of player quality (sorry, Scott Cullen). I think we all watched enough of Travis Moen, Maxim Lapierre and Ryan White to know we’d rather see a few missed shots if it means a player who is actually capable of beating a goalie can have the puck on his stick once in a while.
Chances on net
Just as a blocked shot or a missed shot may be a waste, so too could an ill-advised shot from a bad angle, a low percentage shot.
Thanks to Olivier at En Attendant les Nordiques we now have two seasons worth of analysis on which shots came from dangerous positions.
% chances/attempt
Outlier (>50%): Palushaj (67%)
Top tier (41-50%): Kostitsyn, Cammalleri, Moen, Lapierre, Plekanec, Darche, Desharnais, Eller, Gionta, Pouliot
Second tier (31-40%): Dawes, Halpern, Pacioretty, Gomez, Boyd
Third tier (21-30%): White, Pyatt, Engqvist, Markov
Fourth tier (11-20%): Wisniewski, Subban, Picard
Bottom tier (1-10%): Hamrlik, Gorges, Weber, Gill, Spacek
No chances (0%) Sopel, Mara, Nash, O’Byrne
Kostitsyn and Cammalleri’s presence at second and third is telling because most think of those two as the best pure shooters on the team. Given that a scoring chance in Olivier’s analysis is defined as an attempt (on net, missed or blocked) from a dangerous area, this data shows how these two guys excel at getting in position (or at least in not shooting from bad positions).
Defencemen don’t have the same opportunity to get into “chance” territory. But consider that 22% of Andrei Markov’s attempts were scoring chances … positioning again, and we can just see the PP pinch.
Chances needed to score
A common exclamation in my household is: “How many chances does this guy need to be fed to put one in?” The mark of a scorer is reliability in good positions. But like shooting percentage, this stat gives insight into the luck (good or bad) that was at play as well.
Chances/goal
Top tier (<5): Jeff Halpern (3.73), Subban, Wisniewski, Desharnais, Picard, Gill, Pacioretty
Second tier (5-10): Gorges, Darche, Hamrlik, Boyd, White, Pouliot, Gionta, Plekanec, Markov, Cammalleri, Kostitsyn, Lapierre, Eller
Bottom tier (>10): Moen, Spacek, Gomez, Weber, Pyatt (17.00)
Conspicuous in these lists are players at the top and bottom that are no longer around: Pyatt for his utter futility around the net given good chances and Halpern, Picard and Wisniewski based on the bet they might never replicate this form. Gomez too should be ashamed of his presence on this list, as it’s hard to blame everyone else for one’s poor stats when one take nearly 13 chances to score a goal.
Chance creation while on ice
In fairness to Josh Gorges, his job when he’s on the ice is not shot or chance creation. In fact, when he’s on the ice as part of a 5-man unit, he is usually the 5th (sometimes the 4th) player responsible for that aspect of the game.
To evaluate Gorges contribution to offense is difficult. Really it is about how he creates space for his teammates through quick and crisp defensive play and transition. Of course, there’s not one measure of this. If there were, we wouldn’t need to waste our time with things like Corsi.
One measure that comes close to this is zone shift. Unfortunately, I don’t track that. So my proxy for this activity today will be percentage of attempts that are scored as scoring chances while a player is on the ice – the idea being that each player is ultimately driving to create scoring with his team unit and avoid non-chances, so this percentage gives one look into the quest.
% ChFON/AttFON
Top tier (>50%): Cammalleri (54%)
Second tier (41-50%): Plekanec, Wisniewski, Kostitsyn, Gionta, Subban, Markov
Third tier (31-40%): Desharnais, Gomez, Hamrlik, Darche, Pacioretty, Weber, Gorges, Spacek, Gill, Picard, Moen, Sopel, Lapierre
Fourth tier (21-30%): Boyd, Halpern, Mara, Pouliot, Pyatt, Eller, White, Palushaj
Bottom tier (<20%): O’Byrne, Nash, Dawes, Engqvist (8%)
Maybe it’s the way we watch the game, but it’s uncanny how this list pans out. I think of Cammalleri as really the only undisputed star on the Habs, and there I he is, miles ahead. The next tier lists the guys I would say have better than average offensive instincts. That fourth tier has a lot of “steer clears”.
The big surprise (though obviously not to Habs management) is Pouliot. While he ranked highly in converting his own attempts into scoring chances, it seems those he played with were simply bad. Apparently management didn’t think his hands were clean in this debacle.
This look into shots is no more definitive than Scott Cullen's work, but it does at least give Josh Gorges a little bit of hope. It appears from this at least that shots/attempt is the area in which he performed worst last season. In fact, in some of the other areas he did quite well. And to vindicate management decisions here, he does appear to be better than Mara, Sopel and some of the other former Habs.
Apart from Gorges, there's more insights, I'm sure. Cammalleri looks good in most lists and Markov looks the class at the back end. So at least logic isn't defied. Further than this, I'll leave the conclusions to you all.
Showing posts with label chances for. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chances for. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Thursday, January 07, 2010
Canadiens Shots Allowed
Flawed Implementation Or Implementing Flawed Approach
If you're like me, I think you thought that the addition of Jacques Martin to the fold would be a boon for the goalies, and perhaps ultimately the fans, as the haphazard defensive manner to which we were accustomed would be banished and replaced with simple play and reduced shots.
Now that we've given the system until the New Year (like we said we would), I think it's time to air a grievance: this isn't at all how I thought this would work.
Currently, the Canadiens sit in 11th position for GAA in the league. Not bad, but consider where they'd be without two 0.920 save percentage goalies, as they are also 28th in the NHL in shots allowed per contest. Their total currently stands at 32.8 SA/G (which may sound like a miraculously low total considering the recent onslaughts).
Certainly some of the onus for this high shot total must fall at the feet of the penalty takers (or victims of Chris Lee, if you prefer), since the Habs have given up the most PPs in the league (193). However, that might slightly gloss over the fact that their ES play is actually the bigger contributor to their SA totals. in fact, the Habs are one of the elite teams at preventing shots on the PK (analyse that...), but would allow a massive 31.5 shots per contest if they were penalty free.
Given that Jacques Martin is supposedly in charge of organizing and plotting team strategy for the 5-on-5, I was wondering what on earth was going on. If we don't have possession stats, we certainly have eyes – and those tell me that the Habs trend (espcially lately has been to sit and wait for shots and chances to come). Perhaps the comfort of two good goalies prevents fretting over the defensive pitfalls of this approach, but a look at ES scoring shows that a little more possession for the good guys might help to pad a few leads, win a few more close games.
Chances for and against
As I said, we don't have possession stats per se, but we do have some proxies. One of the better proxies at even strength is the CORSI numbers. However, as you know, though i like the number, I find it often oversimplifies matters. After all, there are several ways to get a good CORSI number: play bad defensively but take a lot of shots (misses and blocked shots count for you), play really well defensively and take shots, play unbelievable defence and take barely more than average shots. In light of that, I like to present the whole story (i.e., chances for and against), and relate those to what the league is doing. I present the status quo for the Habs below, with shots for (SF), chances for (ChF), shots against (SA), chances against (CA), and the differences between offense and defence:
Legend
As you can see, chances for with the Habs is a mixed bag. Gionta, Gomez, Pouliot and Markov generate top tier chances, while the offensive laggards (Laraque and co.), well, lag. I'm sure there's lots to be mined from the numbers and the relationships between them, but not today.
Chances against are more homgenous. They are all blue. It is systematic. This, for me, is most interesting. Once again, the bad players are bad. However, even the players we heap praise on for defensive awareness are allowing above average number of shots to be released from opponents' sticks.
Leaving the offensive stats behind, I delved deeper into the defensive numbers to try and figure out what is happening. I present the numbers for you to consider below for shots against (SA), missed shots against (MA), blocked shots (BF), chances against (ChA) and percentage of shots against making the net (SA%):
Legend
This table is most interesting for those who want to get to the bottom of the Jacques martin system, I think. Column by column, it's pretty consistently league average or below, or league average and above.
The breakdown of chances across the whole team seems to be summed up by lots of shots attempted against, an enormous amount blocked, many opponents forced to shoot wide, but still more than average shots getting to the net.
Shots against (as we noted earlier) is troubling, even if it doesn't result in goals 92% of the time. Most Habs are belowe the league average in preventing shots on their goal.
Blocked shots is an interesting category. It must be the only statistic in the league where the Canadiens could look like such a star outfit. No less than 12 Habs fall into the top 10% of the league in blocked shots at ES while they're on the ice. The rest are above average (only Pouliot, with his Wild numbers incorporated, spoils the whitewash). Missed shots is similar, if not quite as dominant, almost all Habs being above the league average.
Add up below average shot prevention, more than average missed shots and more than average blocked shots and you get the blue mess that follows in chances against. The numbers in that column are sub-optimal by most standards and some are downright abysmal (see >60 ChA/60).
It seems to me (and maybe to you as well, dear readers) that this is a bit of a red flag for the passive approach to defence that is currently being employed by Martin and his boys. While the defensive clogging of the slot is surely leading to some impressive blocked and missed shot totals, it seem to me that the Canadiens aren't perhaps negotiating the next part of the strategy very well at all – which should be making the shot a turnover by recovering the puck.
System performers
So, we've got to the bottom of the system (at least the one used so far). Allow the shot from the outside – block it or force the player to shoot wide – then recover the puck and start an attack. As a system it's not stupid, the team that seems to use it best this season is Pittsburgh who translate above average chances against into below average shots against. However, it must also be said that most teams we think of as defensive outfits don't trust this way of defending. New Jersey, Boston, Detroit, these teams all reduce chances overall and limit the number of shots that have to be blocked or forced wide.
In addition to the Penguins, there are players on the Habs who seem to get this system and can play it with some success. To me, these are the players that have warmer shades in the SA column and top rankings in the missed and blocked columns. The standouts seem to be Glen Metropoilt, Josh Gorges and Roman Hamrlik. All three players (and observation I think would back this up) play their position well and are good at jumping to retrieve the loose stuff after the initial chance.
System failures
Troublingly, the successes are outnumbered by the strugglers. Ignore Markov for now (he's had offense on the mind in his return), but do cast an eye to O'Byrne, Lapierre and Mara. These three players all allow 59 chances an hour or more. They are all on the ice for plenty of blocked shots and missed shots, but the sheer number of reloads they are allowing means they are also on the ice for a shot every 2 minutes or less.
Add to these players, Spacek, Gill, Gomez, Sergei Kostitsyn and even Gionta and we're in trouble.
When to change?
45 games into a season and many players appear on paper (and on TV) to be having significant trouble with a system that demands passivity, patience and then quickness to make it work properly. It begs the question, should Martin persist with this system.
If not, how late is too late to change? After all, it seems to be unravelling more than it is coming together at this point in the season. What's more, i think we've al seen enough proof that it doesn't work as well against good teams as it seems to against the Islanders.
If I were the coach, I'd be having a little think about all this.
I'd like to know what all of you think...
Now that we've given the system until the New Year (like we said we would), I think it's time to air a grievance: this isn't at all how I thought this would work.
Currently, the Canadiens sit in 11th position for GAA in the league. Not bad, but consider where they'd be without two 0.920 save percentage goalies, as they are also 28th in the NHL in shots allowed per contest. Their total currently stands at 32.8 SA/G (which may sound like a miraculously low total considering the recent onslaughts).
Certainly some of the onus for this high shot total must fall at the feet of the penalty takers (or victims of Chris Lee, if you prefer), since the Habs have given up the most PPs in the league (193). However, that might slightly gloss over the fact that their ES play is actually the bigger contributor to their SA totals. in fact, the Habs are one of the elite teams at preventing shots on the PK (analyse that...), but would allow a massive 31.5 shots per contest if they were penalty free.
Given that Jacques Martin is supposedly in charge of organizing and plotting team strategy for the 5-on-5, I was wondering what on earth was going on. If we don't have possession stats, we certainly have eyes – and those tell me that the Habs trend (espcially lately has been to sit and wait for shots and chances to come). Perhaps the comfort of two good goalies prevents fretting over the defensive pitfalls of this approach, but a look at ES scoring shows that a little more possession for the good guys might help to pad a few leads, win a few more close games.
Chances for and against
As I said, we don't have possession stats per se, but we do have some proxies. One of the better proxies at even strength is the CORSI numbers. However, as you know, though i like the number, I find it often oversimplifies matters. After all, there are several ways to get a good CORSI number: play bad defensively but take a lot of shots (misses and blocked shots count for you), play really well defensively and take shots, play unbelievable defence and take barely more than average shots. In light of that, I like to present the whole story (i.e., chances for and against), and relate those to what the league is doing. I present the status quo for the Habs below, with shots for (SF), chances for (ChF), shots against (SA), chances against (CA), and the differences between offense and defence:
| NAME | GP | SFON/60 | ChF/60 | SAON/60 | ChA/60 | Sh Diff | Ch Diff |
| Andrei Kostitsyn | 40 | 24.3 | 49.8 | 27 | 53.8 | -2.7 | -4 |
| Andrei Markov | 9 | 30.4 | 56.2 | 42.5 | 70.6 | -12.1 | -14.4 |
| Benoit Pouliot | 19 | 32.3 | 57.1 | 28.3 | 55.7 | 4 | 1.4 |
| Brian Gionta | 23 | 29.9 | 61.9 | 30.2 | 57.6 | -0.3 | 4.3 |
| Geln Metropolit | 38 | 24.8 | 50 | 26.5 | 58.6 | -1.7 | -8.6 |
| Georges Laraque | 23 | 15 | 32.3 | 28.6 | 68.5 | -13.6 | -36.2 |
| Hal Gill | 30 | 20.9 | 45.6 | 28.5 | 57.1 | -7.6 | -11.5 |
| Jaroslav Spacek | 42 | 26.3 | 54.1 | 29.5 | 59.5 | -3.2 | -5.4 |
| Josh Gorges | 44 | 21.8 | 44.6 | 26.7 | 56.6 | -4.9 | -12 |
| Marc-Andre Bergeron | 37 | 24.5 | 53 | 27.8 | 56.2 | -3.3 | -3.2 |
| Matt D'Agostini | 29 | 20.4 | 48.1 | 27.9 | 55.4 | -7.5 | -7.3 |
| Max Pacioretty | 43 | 25.7 | 52.7 | 28.3 | 56.1 | -2.6 | -3.4 |
| Maxim Lapierre | 44 | 18.4 | 44.5 | 30.5 | 61.5 | -12.1 | -17 |
| Michael Cammalleri | 44 | 25 | 54.2 | 28.9 | 57.8 | -3.9 | -3.6 |
| Paul Mara | 34 | 22.3 | 49 | 30.7 | 59.4 | -8.4 | -10.4 |
| Roman Hamrlik | 37 | 25.1 | 52.4 | 26.4 | 55.8 | -1.3 | -3.4 |
| Ryan O'Byrne | 24 | 20 | 43.7 | 31.3 | 59.4 | -11.3 | -15.7 |
| Ryan White | 13 | 14.4 | 37.1 | 31.1 | 62.6 | -16.7 | -25.5 |
| Scott Gomez | 40 | 28.5 | 56.7 | 30.1 | 56.3 | -1.6 | 0.4 |
| Sergei Kostitsyn | 19 | 21.8 | 44.2 | 31.2 | 59 | -9.4 | -14.8 |
| Tom Pyatt | 19 | 19.2 | 40 | 31 | 63 | -11.8 | -23 |
| Tomas Plekanec | 44 | 23.1 | 47.6 | 28.6 | 58.2 | -5.5 | -10.6 |
| Travis Moen | 44 | 24 | 46.5 | 28.8 | 57 | -4.8 | -10.5 |
Legend
| Top 10% NHL | 11-20% NHL | 21-40% NHL | Average NHL | 61-80% NHL | 81-90% NHL | Bottom 10% NHL |
As you can see, chances for with the Habs is a mixed bag. Gionta, Gomez, Pouliot and Markov generate top tier chances, while the offensive laggards (Laraque and co.), well, lag. I'm sure there's lots to be mined from the numbers and the relationships between them, but not today.
Chances against are more homgenous. They are all blue. It is systematic. This, for me, is most interesting. Once again, the bad players are bad. However, even the players we heap praise on for defensive awareness are allowing above average number of shots to be released from opponents' sticks.
Leaving the offensive stats behind, I delved deeper into the defensive numbers to try and figure out what is happening. I present the numbers for you to consider below for shots against (SA), missed shots against (MA), blocked shots (BF), chances against (ChA) and percentage of shots against making the net (SA%):
| NAME | GP | SAON/60 | MAON/60 | BFON/60 | ChA/60 | SA% |
| Andrei Kostitsyn | 40 | 27 | 11.4 | 15.4 | 53.8 | 50.2% |
| Andrei Markov | 9 | 42.5 | 13.7 | 14.4 | 70.6 | 60.2% |
| Benoit Pouliot | 19 | 28.3 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 55.7 | 50.8% |
| Brian Gionta | 23 | 30.2 | 13.2 | 14.2 | 57.6 | 52.4% |
| Geln Metropolit | 38 | 26.5 | 13.9 | 18.2 | 58.6 | 45.2% |
| Georges Laraque | 23 | 28.6 | 18.6 | 21.3 | 68.5 | 41.8% |
| Hal Gill | 30 | 28.5 | 13.4 | 15.2 | 57.1 | 49.9% |
| Jaroslav Spacek | 42 | 29.5 | 12.2 | 17.8 | 59.5 | 49.6% |
| Josh Gorges | 44 | 26.7 | 12.9 | 17 | 56.6 | 47.2% |
| Marc-Andre Bergeron | 37 | 27.8 | 11.7 | 16.7 | 56.2 | 49.5% |
| Matt D'Agostini | 29 | 27.9 | 9 | 18.5 | 55.4 | 50.4% |
| Max Pacioretty | 43 | 28.3 | 10.7 | 17.1 | 56.1 | 50.4% |
| Maxim Lapierre | 44 | 30.5 | 12.4 | 18.6 | 61.5 | 49.6% |
| Michael Cammalleri | 44 | 28.9 | 12.6 | 16.3 | 57.8 | 50.0% |
| Paul Mara | 34 | 30.7 | 12.3 | 16.4 | 59.4 | 51.7% |
| Roman Hamrlik | 37 | 26.4 | 12.2 | 17.2 | 55.8 | 47.3% |
| Ryan O'Byrne | 24 | 31.3 | 10.6 | 17.5 | 59.4 | 52.7% |
| Ryan White | 13 | 31.1 | 12.7 | 18.8 | 62.6 | 49.7% |
| Scott Gomez | 40 | 30.1 | 12.1 | 14.1 | 56.3 | 53.5% |
| Sergei Kostitsyn | 19 | 31.2 | 11 | 16.8 | 59 | 52.9% |
| Tom Pyatt | 19 | 31 | 13.1 | 18.9 | 63 | 49.2% |
| Tomas Plekanec | 44 | 28.6 | 12.4 | 17.2 | 58.2 | 49.1% |
| Travis Moen | 44 | 28.8 | 11.9 | 16.3 | 57 | 50.5% |
Legend
| Top 10% NHL | 11-20% NHL | 21-40% NHL | Average NHL | 61-80% NHL | 81-90% NHL | Bottom 10% NHL |
This table is most interesting for those who want to get to the bottom of the Jacques martin system, I think. Column by column, it's pretty consistently league average or below, or league average and above.
The breakdown of chances across the whole team seems to be summed up by lots of shots attempted against, an enormous amount blocked, many opponents forced to shoot wide, but still more than average shots getting to the net.
Shots against (as we noted earlier) is troubling, even if it doesn't result in goals 92% of the time. Most Habs are belowe the league average in preventing shots on their goal.
Blocked shots is an interesting category. It must be the only statistic in the league where the Canadiens could look like such a star outfit. No less than 12 Habs fall into the top 10% of the league in blocked shots at ES while they're on the ice. The rest are above average (only Pouliot, with his Wild numbers incorporated, spoils the whitewash). Missed shots is similar, if not quite as dominant, almost all Habs being above the league average.
Add up below average shot prevention, more than average missed shots and more than average blocked shots and you get the blue mess that follows in chances against. The numbers in that column are sub-optimal by most standards and some are downright abysmal (see >60 ChA/60).
It seems to me (and maybe to you as well, dear readers) that this is a bit of a red flag for the passive approach to defence that is currently being employed by Martin and his boys. While the defensive clogging of the slot is surely leading to some impressive blocked and missed shot totals, it seem to me that the Canadiens aren't perhaps negotiating the next part of the strategy very well at all – which should be making the shot a turnover by recovering the puck.
System performers
So, we've got to the bottom of the system (at least the one used so far). Allow the shot from the outside – block it or force the player to shoot wide – then recover the puck and start an attack. As a system it's not stupid, the team that seems to use it best this season is Pittsburgh who translate above average chances against into below average shots against. However, it must also be said that most teams we think of as defensive outfits don't trust this way of defending. New Jersey, Boston, Detroit, these teams all reduce chances overall and limit the number of shots that have to be blocked or forced wide.
In addition to the Penguins, there are players on the Habs who seem to get this system and can play it with some success. To me, these are the players that have warmer shades in the SA column and top rankings in the missed and blocked columns. The standouts seem to be Glen Metropoilt, Josh Gorges and Roman Hamrlik. All three players (and observation I think would back this up) play their position well and are good at jumping to retrieve the loose stuff after the initial chance.
System failures
Troublingly, the successes are outnumbered by the strugglers. Ignore Markov for now (he's had offense on the mind in his return), but do cast an eye to O'Byrne, Lapierre and Mara. These three players all allow 59 chances an hour or more. They are all on the ice for plenty of blocked shots and missed shots, but the sheer number of reloads they are allowing means they are also on the ice for a shot every 2 minutes or less.
Add to these players, Spacek, Gill, Gomez, Sergei Kostitsyn and even Gionta and we're in trouble.
When to change?
45 games into a season and many players appear on paper (and on TV) to be having significant trouble with a system that demands passivity, patience and then quickness to make it work properly. It begs the question, should Martin persist with this system.
If not, how late is too late to change? After all, it seems to be unravelling more than it is coming together at this point in the season. What's more, i think we've al seen enough proof that it doesn't work as well against good teams as it seems to against the Islanders.
If I were the coach, I'd be having a little think about all this.
I'd like to know what all of you think...
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