An exciting day of hockey yesterday, as all important positions were determined in an afternoon/evening.
Canada lost, of course, but are still very much alive. They merely set themselves a place at the adult table when they could be sitting with the children where the US are now.
Losing to the US was always possible, but it was their clumsy win vs. a Swiss team that needed OT to scrape by Norway that cost us biggest. Had the Canadians won that game, they would now be lying 4th, with a US rematch in the QFs and a tricky, yet winnable QF vs. Finland. Instead, by being under-prepared and over-relaxed (as usual) they have put themselves in a hole. It'll be a playoff vs. Germany, which should be a foregone conclusion (but, hey, you never know), then a QF vs. powerhouse Russia and a need to face Olympic champion Sweden (in all likelihood) for the right to even play for the Gold.
Even if Canada had beaten the US, they'd still face Russian ahead of the final, and they'd have had a tough QF game (though Slovakia is not Sweden), so don't fret about yesterday too much.
Scoreboard watching
Really, it's Sweden who quite uncharacteristically chose the harder road on Sunday.
The organizers truly underestimate the players ability to shape their efforts to shape outcomes. You'd never see staggered group games in a World Cup – they'd all be simultaneous. If European soccer players were gifted these staggered starts, you'd see some crazy own goals and all kinds of other bloopers. I guess not all hockey countries are so Machiavellian in approach. Sweden, though – ask Italian football fans – are.
By the time Sweden and Finland played, the teams knew that losing meant a bye with a QF vs. Czech, but a semi with the US or the Swiss. The winner gets the far less attractive Slovak QF with SF of Russia or Canada. I didn't watch the game, but looking at Finland's shot totals, their final score and knowing that they have the very savvy Saku Koivu at the helm, it seems like they might have played for position in their game. Last Olympics, Sweden tanked to draw the cheaper run and it worked as they were rested to win a Gold. This time, it seems like Finland may have just pipped their rivals in the strategic losing department.
Gold medal favourite
Any team can win from here, and I find it hard to make a prediction.
But I have to say, Canada doesn't look favourite for me anymore. They lie 6th, but of the top 7 teams, they are the only one who has not beaten a worthy opponent.
I have to think that the team on the top side of the draw will now have the slight edge coming into the final, given their finals opponents are likely to have had a few trying games. I still don't like the USA, and don't rate Finnish goaltending or defence anymore, so I have to think the Czechs have a great shot. From the other side, Canada/Sweden/Russia all look set for a photo finish in the next few days. If Canada finds better goaltending, they'll get the ankle transponder over the line first, I think.
Canada vs. Czech in the final could be great. But will a Canada who can't rise to beat the Swiss in regulation or a US team that carries actual 4th line talent really beat Russia, Sweden and Czech in sequence.
Well, if it's dreams of gold in your head, you'd better start believing they can.
Showing posts with label Slovakia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Slovakia. Show all posts
Monday, February 22, 2010
Friday, February 19, 2010
Why The Swiss Game Matters
It's incredible in this day and age, with all the hype surrounding this hockey tournament in Canada, that all the sites where one can follow this thing on the web (at least the ones immediately obvious to most) are so poor.
TSN, RDS and Sportsnet, who usually have decent web pages have been funneled into CTV's site, who I would kindly say have muffed the Olympic hockey portion of the site. The official site of the Games is best of the lot, but given the standard of websites in 2010 isn't exactly taking advantage of all the best new practices.
Among the issues that spring from this is the confusion over the format of the Olympic hockey tournament. While sites do present the standings, few present them in the most useful way.
You see this Olympics, the IIHF has tweaked the format of the tournament so that group play is essentially a team sorting mechanism. Each team will play 3 games against the pre-selected opponents in their groups to sort out the rankings of all teams from 1 to 12.
From these rankings, the top four teams get a bye to the quarterfinals and teams 5 to 12 (all of them, none are eliminated) will face off in 4 playoff games to fight for a quarterfinal berth.
Thanks to a difficult to find page at NHL.com (not an Olympic site) we know that the deciding factors are:
1) Group position
2) Points gained
3) Goal difference
4) Goals for
5) IIHF ranking (2009)
This means that all three group winners proceed to the QFs, no matter what. The 4th team in the QFs will be the top second place finisher. Thanks to OTW and OTL, this will probably be sorted via points.
Teams 5 and 6 will be the other two second place finishers; teams 7-9 will be the third ranked teams; and teams 10-12 will be Norway, Latvia and Germany (or, if you prefer, the three last placed teams).
I think that given the inevitability of this happening, it might be more useful for everyone if we display the standings from 1 to 12, so as to remove any illusion that anything else is important:
Why that OTW might hurt later
As Canadians bask in the glory of beating the Swiss team, it is perhaps a good idea to consider for minute what coming up short by a point means for the tournament.
As it goes, Canada is now guaranteed first or second in the group. Surely good news. And, if they beat the US, there's no doubt of a bye – also good news. But here are some scenarios:
Canada beats USA
If Canada beats the US in regulation, they'll be sitting pretty with 8 points. That will be enough to clear Russia. However, Czech, Finland and Sweden could all go clean in the group (and one probably will) meaning that Canada won't get the first seed.
You may not think this matters, but consider the semi-finals. if Sweden goes clean they should draw USA or Finland in the semis, barring upsets. Canada will be faced with the possibility of the Czech Republic or Russia. Not the better side of the draw really.
What's more, though they don't like the Swiss, Canada would be foolhardy not to be hoping to face Switzerland in the quarters should no upsets occur. This is because, though they are a top 8 team, the top 7 teams have a certain mystique about them that makes them surpass workmanlike Switzerland.
Canada in the two seed could draw Slovakia. this team used to be easy pickings, but thanks to Halak, they now have a credible goaltender. They also have Hossa and some other interesting forwards up front and the Norris trophy Chara at the back. They're not a joke. And teams that take them lightly (Russia, ahem) do so at their peril.
Canada loses to USA
Stranger things have happened. If this occurs, Canada will have 5 points. No offense to Germany and Belarus, but I think Finland and Sweden will be on 6, or more both. Group B will toss up at least one 5-point second place teams (Slovakia) and quite possibly a 6-point one as well as Group C.
Either way, Canada would likely miss the top second which they would have clinched by beating Switzerland and their goal difference. It would at least mean an extra game, extra chance of injury, etc.
5th or 6th means little difference in the playoff (Norway or Latvia), but Canada would again be in the #2/3 semi rather than getting a crack at the 4th place team to make a final.
Koivu understands
I know it's all just quotes, but Koivu seems to clearly understand what his team needs to do:
Others seem to take results as they come. This may be something they reflect upon later while the medal places are being decided:
I think Team Canada showed with their clumsy win yesterday that they are among the latter group – seeing what happens.
It's all well and good to stumble through to the medal round. it often works (see World Cup, Italy), but it's playing with fire in some ways. Especially for a team that's got a bit of a reputation for not doing well with the fire handling at these big tournaments.
TSN, RDS and Sportsnet, who usually have decent web pages have been funneled into CTV's site, who I would kindly say have muffed the Olympic hockey portion of the site. The official site of the Games is best of the lot, but given the standard of websites in 2010 isn't exactly taking advantage of all the best new practices.
Among the issues that spring from this is the confusion over the format of the Olympic hockey tournament. While sites do present the standings, few present them in the most useful way.
You see this Olympics, the IIHF has tweaked the format of the tournament so that group play is essentially a team sorting mechanism. Each team will play 3 games against the pre-selected opponents in their groups to sort out the rankings of all teams from 1 to 12.
From these rankings, the top four teams get a bye to the quarterfinals and teams 5 to 12 (all of them, none are eliminated) will face off in 4 playoff games to fight for a quarterfinal berth.
Thanks to a difficult to find page at NHL.com (not an Olympic site) we know that the deciding factors are:
1) Group position
2) Points gained
3) Goal difference
4) Goals for
5) IIHF ranking (2009)
This means that all three group winners proceed to the QFs, no matter what. The 4th team in the QFs will be the top second place finisher. Thanks to OTW and OTL, this will probably be sorted via points.
Teams 5 and 6 will be the other two second place finishers; teams 7-9 will be the third ranked teams; and teams 10-12 will be Norway, Latvia and Germany (or, if you prefer, the three last placed teams).
I think that given the inevitability of this happening, it might be more useful for everyone if we display the standings from 1 to 12, so as to remove any illusion that anything else is important:
| Team | Position | GP | W | OTW | OTL | L | Pts | GF | GA | Diff |
| USA | A1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 2 | +7 |
| Russia | B1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 |
| Finland | C1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 |
| Canada | A2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 2 | +9 |
| Czech Republic | B2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 |
| Sweden | C2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 |
| Slovakia | B3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| Switzerland | A3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 |
| Germany | C3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| Belarus | C4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -4 |
| Latvia | B4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -6 |
| Norway | A4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | -13 |
Why that OTW might hurt later
As Canadians bask in the glory of beating the Swiss team, it is perhaps a good idea to consider for minute what coming up short by a point means for the tournament.
As it goes, Canada is now guaranteed first or second in the group. Surely good news. And, if they beat the US, there's no doubt of a bye – also good news. But here are some scenarios:
Canada beats USA
If Canada beats the US in regulation, they'll be sitting pretty with 8 points. That will be enough to clear Russia. However, Czech, Finland and Sweden could all go clean in the group (and one probably will) meaning that Canada won't get the first seed.
You may not think this matters, but consider the semi-finals. if Sweden goes clean they should draw USA or Finland in the semis, barring upsets. Canada will be faced with the possibility of the Czech Republic or Russia. Not the better side of the draw really.
What's more, though they don't like the Swiss, Canada would be foolhardy not to be hoping to face Switzerland in the quarters should no upsets occur. This is because, though they are a top 8 team, the top 7 teams have a certain mystique about them that makes them surpass workmanlike Switzerland.
Canada in the two seed could draw Slovakia. this team used to be easy pickings, but thanks to Halak, they now have a credible goaltender. They also have Hossa and some other interesting forwards up front and the Norris trophy Chara at the back. They're not a joke. And teams that take them lightly (Russia, ahem) do so at their peril.
Canada loses to USA
Stranger things have happened. If this occurs, Canada will have 5 points. No offense to Germany and Belarus, but I think Finland and Sweden will be on 6, or more both. Group B will toss up at least one 5-point second place teams (Slovakia) and quite possibly a 6-point one as well as Group C.
Either way, Canada would likely miss the top second which they would have clinched by beating Switzerland and their goal difference. It would at least mean an extra game, extra chance of injury, etc.
5th or 6th means little difference in the playoff (Norway or Latvia), but Canada would again be in the #2/3 semi rather than getting a crack at the 4th place team to make a final.
Koivu understands
I know it's all just quotes, but Koivu seems to clearly understand what his team needs to do:
"Obviously, finishing first in your group is the first goal for every team - and trying to avoid that extra game before the quarters," said Koivu. "I think that's going to be a huge advantage - for those teams and for the top second-place team. I've never liked tournaments that are about goal differential - or if someone benefits from scoring two more goals against a weaker team."Koivu is the type of player whose gamesmanship goes well beyond the rink, as he gets totally embroiled in what needs to be done. It should come as no surprise then that he threatens to overtake the Olympic assists lead and tie the record for ice hockey medals at the Olympics.
Others seem to take results as they come. This may be something they reflect upon later while the medal places are being decided:
"I didn't even try to understand it. I didn't get past the point where we cross over (in the quarter-finals). I just know we open(ed) against Switzerland." – Ryan Miller
I think Team Canada showed with their clumsy win yesterday that they are among the latter group – seeing what happens.
It's all well and good to stumble through to the medal round. it often works (see World Cup, Italy), but it's playing with fire in some ways. Especially for a team that's got a bit of a reputation for not doing well with the fire handling at these big tournaments.
Halak First Star Of The Night
It seems Allan Walsh (oops, I mean Mike Boone) needs to update his calculations:
Last night Jaro was the star of the Olympic hockey. It wasn't bad considering this was Russia, and Halak won the shootout against some pretty formidable shootout talent after stopping 36 of 37 shots in gameplay.
You don't think Markov spiked his teammates drinks to make this happen do you?
"Halak allowed three goals on 24 shots. Including his last three NHL starts, Jaro has stoped 75 of 89 shots, an 84.3 save percentage that is well off his performances in 40-shot games."
Last night Jaro was the star of the Olympic hockey. It wasn't bad considering this was Russia, and Halak won the shootout against some pretty formidable shootout talent after stopping 36 of 37 shots in gameplay.
You don't think Markov spiked his teammates drinks to make this happen do you?
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Canadiens As Non-Canadians
Olympic Hockey History
While Canada has been shunning what the Montreal Canadiens players have to offer, that certainly doesn't mean the Habs haven't been at the Olympics. In fact by the end of this tournament, 10 Canadiens will have participated in the last three Olympics.
As a complement to the look at the Habs on Team Canada, it's only fair to balance that with the Habs that have represented other countries at the Games. In all there would have been 48, but with Andrei Kostitsyn's scratch the total is 47 Olympic alums for the Habs family.
USA: 13
Current Habs: None
Habs Prospects: Chris Chelios (1984), Jim Campbell (1992)
One-time Habs: Chris Chelios (1998, 2002, 2006), Matt Schneider (1998, 2006), John Leclair (1998, 2002), Craig Conroy (2006)
Future Habs: Alphonse Lacroix (1924), Bill Baker (1980), Larry Pleau (1968), Eric Weinrich (1988), Scott Lachance (1992), Barry Richter (1994), Scott Gomez & Brian Gionta (2006)
Russia: 8
Current Habs: Alexei Kovalev (2006), Andrei Markov (2006, 2010)
Habs Prospects: Konstantin Korneev (2010)
One-time Habs: Valeri Bure (1998, 2002), Andrei Kovalenko (1998), Vladimir Malakhov (2002), Alexei Kovalev (2010)
Future Habs: Alexei Kovalev, Andrei Kovalenko & Vladimir Malakhov (1992), Sergei Samsonov (2002)
Czech Republic: 8
Current Habs: Martin Rucinsky (1998, 2002), Jan Bulis (2006), Tomas Plekanec (2010)
Habs Prospects: None
One-time Habs: Petr Svoboda (1998), Tomas Vokoun (2006, 2010)
Future Habs: Robert Lang (1992, 1998, 2002, 2006), Jaroslav Spacek (1998, 2002, 2006), Roman Hamrlik (1998, 2002)
Sweden: 6
Current Habs: None
Habs Prospects: Mats Naslund (1980), Thomas Rundqvist (1984), Patrik Carnback & Patric Kjellberg (1992)
One-time Habs: Mats Naslund (1992, 1994), Patric Kjellberg (1994, 1998)
Future Habs: Thomas Rundqvist (1988), Andreas Dackell (1994), Niklas Sundstrom (1998, 2002)
Finland: 3
Current Habs: Saku Koivu (1998, 2006)
Habs Prospects: Jyrki Lumme (1988), Saku Koivu (1994)
One-time Habs: Jyrki Lumme (1998, 2002), Saku Koivu (2010)
Future Habs: Janne Niinimaa (1998, 2002)
Slovakia: 3
Current Habs: Richard Zednik (2006), Jaroslav Halak (2010)
Habs Prospects: None
One-time Habs: Marcel Hossa (2006, 2010), Richard Zednik (2010)
Future Habs: None
Switzerland: 3
Current Habs: Mark Streit (2006)
Habs Prospects: Yannick Weber (2010)
One-time Habs: Mark Streit (2010)
Future Habs: David Aebischer (2002, 2006)
Belarus: 2/3
Current Habs: Sergei Kostitsyn (2010), (Andrei Kostitsyn (2010 – injured))
Habs Prospects: None
One-time Habs: Mikhail Grabovski (2010)
Future Habs: None
France: 1
Current Habs: None
Habs Prospects: None
One-time Habs: None
Future Habs: Cristobal Huet (1998, 2002)
Not only have the players been, but they've conquered too. 34 medals in all with 12 Gold. If you want to get picky, only one Gold wa won by a current Canadiens player (Rucinsky) and one by a prospect (Miracle on Ice, Bill Baker), but that goes with two silvers for Habs players and prospects and four bronze. Not such a poor tally.
Olympic Medals by Canadiens on other teams
Gold: 12
Bill Baker (USA, 1980)
Alexei Kovalev, Andrei Kovalenko & Vladimir Malakhov (CIS, 1992)
Mats Naslund, Andreas Dackell & Patric Kjellberg (SWE, 1994)
Martin Rucinsky, Petr Svoboda, Roman Hamrlik, Jaroslav Spacek & Robert Lang (CZE, 1998)
Silver: 7
Alphonse Lacroix (USA, 1924)
Jyrki Lumme (FIN, 1988)
Valeri Bure, Andrei Kovalenko (RUS, 1998)
Chris Chelios, John Leclair (USA, 2002)
Saku Koivu (FIN, 2006)
Bronze: 15
Thomas Rundqvist (SWE, 1984)
Thomas Rundqvist (SWE, 1988)
Robert Lang (CZE, 1992)
Saku Koivu (FIN, 1994)
Saku Koivu, Jyrki Lumme & Janne Niinimaa (FIN, 1998)
Alexei Kovalev, Vladimir Malakhov, Valeri Bure & Sergei Samsonov (2002)
Jan Bulis, Jaroslav Spacek, Robert Lang & Tomas Voloun (CZE, 2006)
As a complement to the look at the Habs on Team Canada, it's only fair to balance that with the Habs that have represented other countries at the Games. In all there would have been 48, but with Andrei Kostitsyn's scratch the total is 47 Olympic alums for the Habs family.
USA: 13
Current Habs: None
Habs Prospects: Chris Chelios (1984), Jim Campbell (1992)
One-time Habs: Chris Chelios (1998, 2002, 2006), Matt Schneider (1998, 2006), John Leclair (1998, 2002), Craig Conroy (2006)
Future Habs: Alphonse Lacroix (1924), Bill Baker (1980), Larry Pleau (1968), Eric Weinrich (1988), Scott Lachance (1992), Barry Richter (1994), Scott Gomez & Brian Gionta (2006)
Russia: 8
Current Habs: Alexei Kovalev (2006), Andrei Markov (2006, 2010)
Habs Prospects: Konstantin Korneev (2010)
One-time Habs: Valeri Bure (1998, 2002), Andrei Kovalenko (1998), Vladimir Malakhov (2002), Alexei Kovalev (2010)
Future Habs: Alexei Kovalev, Andrei Kovalenko & Vladimir Malakhov (1992), Sergei Samsonov (2002)
Czech Republic: 8
Current Habs: Martin Rucinsky (1998, 2002), Jan Bulis (2006), Tomas Plekanec (2010)
Habs Prospects: None
One-time Habs: Petr Svoboda (1998), Tomas Vokoun (2006, 2010)
Future Habs: Robert Lang (1992, 1998, 2002, 2006), Jaroslav Spacek (1998, 2002, 2006), Roman Hamrlik (1998, 2002)
Sweden: 6
Current Habs: None
Habs Prospects: Mats Naslund (1980), Thomas Rundqvist (1984), Patrik Carnback & Patric Kjellberg (1992)
One-time Habs: Mats Naslund (1992, 1994), Patric Kjellberg (1994, 1998)
Future Habs: Thomas Rundqvist (1988), Andreas Dackell (1994), Niklas Sundstrom (1998, 2002)
Finland: 3
Current Habs: Saku Koivu (1998, 2006)
Habs Prospects: Jyrki Lumme (1988), Saku Koivu (1994)
One-time Habs: Jyrki Lumme (1998, 2002), Saku Koivu (2010)
Future Habs: Janne Niinimaa (1998, 2002)
Slovakia: 3
Current Habs: Richard Zednik (2006), Jaroslav Halak (2010)
Habs Prospects: None
One-time Habs: Marcel Hossa (2006, 2010), Richard Zednik (2010)
Future Habs: None
Switzerland: 3
Current Habs: Mark Streit (2006)
Habs Prospects: Yannick Weber (2010)
One-time Habs: Mark Streit (2010)
Future Habs: David Aebischer (2002, 2006)
Belarus: 2/3
Current Habs: Sergei Kostitsyn (2010), (Andrei Kostitsyn (2010 – injured))
Habs Prospects: None
One-time Habs: Mikhail Grabovski (2010)
Future Habs: None
France: 1
Current Habs: None
Habs Prospects: None
One-time Habs: None
Future Habs: Cristobal Huet (1998, 2002)
Not only have the players been, but they've conquered too. 34 medals in all with 12 Gold. If you want to get picky, only one Gold wa won by a current Canadiens player (Rucinsky) and one by a prospect (Miracle on Ice, Bill Baker), but that goes with two silvers for Habs players and prospects and four bronze. Not such a poor tally.
Olympic Medals by Canadiens on other teams
Gold: 12
Bill Baker (USA, 1980)
Alexei Kovalev, Andrei Kovalenko & Vladimir Malakhov (CIS, 1992)
Mats Naslund, Andreas Dackell & Patric Kjellberg (SWE, 1994)
Martin Rucinsky, Petr Svoboda, Roman Hamrlik, Jaroslav Spacek & Robert Lang (CZE, 1998)
Silver: 7
Alphonse Lacroix (USA, 1924)
Jyrki Lumme (FIN, 1988)
Valeri Bure, Andrei Kovalenko (RUS, 1998)
Chris Chelios, John Leclair (USA, 2002)
Saku Koivu (FIN, 2006)
Bronze: 15
Thomas Rundqvist (SWE, 1984)
Thomas Rundqvist (SWE, 1988)
Robert Lang (CZE, 1992)
Saku Koivu (FIN, 1994)
Saku Koivu, Jyrki Lumme & Janne Niinimaa (FIN, 1998)
Alexei Kovalev, Vladimir Malakhov, Valeri Bure & Sergei Samsonov (2002)
Jan Bulis, Jaroslav Spacek, Robert Lang & Tomas Voloun (CZE, 2006)
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Who Are You Supporting?
The assumption is often made that supporter of a Canadian NHL team equates to supporter of Canadian National Team.
But the Canadiens are supported around the world, and it's entirely possible that Habs fans in Switzerland don't like Joe Thornton either.
Before the games tonight, I want to know who all of you are supporting. If Canada's your first, then who's your second?
Let's hope the tournament starts with a bang and this really is the best hockey the marketers have been insisting it will be.
But the Canadiens are supported around the world, and it's entirely possible that Habs fans in Switzerland don't like Joe Thornton either.
Before the games tonight, I want to know who all of you are supporting. If Canada's your first, then who's your second?
Let's hope the tournament starts with a bang and this really is the best hockey the marketers have been insisting it will be.
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