Last season, I selected the number 96 as the safe point – the point at which I would feel the Canadiens had safely made the playoffs.
As it turns out, the Canadiens did make the playoffs and 96 points would have been enough. However, imagine the Habs had beaten the Bruins on two less occasions and the Flyers one less time, instead of the improbable sweeps they performed, and then one less win vs. the collapsing Sens. In that circumstance, the Habs would have had their 96 points, but the Bruins would have been on 98, the Flyers on 97 and the Sens on 96. The Canadiens would have been 8th, and it would not have been breathe easy time at all for that last game in Toronto.
As such, this year I am giving the Habs a further 2-point cushion. Rather, they will give it to me. If (and when) the Canadiens reach 98 points, that will be the point at which I will start looking forward to the playoffs.
Given that the team has played a good few games thus far and look to have three rather dominant lines and two extra-motivated Kostitsyns, I am optimistic that this goal is within their reach.
For the 82 games, the rate of point accumulation would be 1.2 per game to get to 98. So 6 wins out of every 10, or 6 points every 5 games. That kind of hockey is no small feat, but when you factor in points for losing (a la game 1), then it's really just a normal rate of point accrual for a winning team in the NHL.
Considering we all want and expect the team and its young core to take forward steps, then 98 points might not look right. But in my end analysis of this season, I'll be looking at playoff participation and performance in the post-season rather than improvement in regular season performance. If it's 98 points and 3+ playoff round wins, I'll be happier than 110 points and a loss to the Flyers in Round 2.
So, 79 games to go. 93 points to the goal. Go Habs Go.
Showing posts with label Regular Season. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Regular Season. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Welcome Opponent One: The Boston Bruins
The Bruins hardly need much introduction. After all, we have all seen them 8 times since October, 10 times since September if you're keen. They lost to us in Montreal. they lost to us in Boston. They even lost to us in Halifax.
Strange thing though. Since the Habs beat these opponents 8/8 times (or 10/10 if you prefer) it doesn't feel like we know the Bruins the way we should. At least not the bruins the rest of the league knows.
We've heard ad nauseum (from myself included) that if the Habs had lost to the Bruins just 4 times, the Bruins (45-25-11: 101 points) would be ahead of the Canadiens (43-29-10: 96 points).
We know the world doesn't work this way: eliminating the team you play worst against would make a similarly enchanting story for most of the teams in the league. Even so, the fact that the Bruins cultivated more points against the rest of the league than the Habs is a matter of some intrigue.
For me the first question that cam to mind was: "Well, who did they beat?"
The answer: Everyone at least a little bit.
vs. Southeast (10-9-1: 21 pts)
Wins: Atlanta (3), Carolina (1), Florida, Tampa and Washington (2 each)
vs. Northeast – sans Montreal (13-6-5: 31 points)
Wins: Toronto (5), Buffalo and Ottawa (4 each)
vs. Atlantic (12-4-4: 28 pts)
Wins: Philadelphia, Islanders and Rangers (3 each), Pittsburgh (2), New Jersey (1)
vs. West (6-3-1: 13 pts)
Wins: Chicago, Columbus, Nashville, LA, Phoenix, San Jose
Basically, the Bruins were steady as we thought. They never slipped too far down the standings, even despite a brutal December. They picked up a lovely 12 bonus points for losing to the Canadiens 10. But while the Habs gave up on this habit of slipping in for points somewhere around the illustrious Xmas road trip, the Bruins have used it as a tried and tested method for point collection.
Interestingly for a team that gets to OT so frequently, they have not seemed to learn how to win from it: going 8-12 in 60+ minute games this season.
If you take the wins another way and examine which teams the Bruins like and dislike, you can see certain patterns emerging:
1) The teams they lost to most frequently are faster than they are: Montreal, Carolina, Buffalo, New Jersey and Pittsburgh
2) With the exception of New Jersey, all the teams above like to win by scoring – the Bruins don't seem to enjoy that
3) Many of the teams they were most successful had trouble scoring in general as well: New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Atlanta, Toronto
4) They poached bad goaltending: Atlanta, Philadelphia, Toronto and Ottawa after their crisis mode
NOTE: The Bruins were also involved in 3 (count 'em, 3) scoreless draws, twice with the Rangers alone. These guaranteed point (and fan-pleasing) affairs got them 4 points and a good-looking record against the Rangers.
From all these results you begin to get a picture of how the Bruins win and lose. If a team skates at them, passes around them and generally tries to play normal hockey, the opponents have a good chance of winning. If a team gets into a jousting match with them, the Bruins hold more cards.
As a final enquiry, I contacted someone who knows a heck of a lot more about the Bruins than me – Russ from the Bruins Report (a great Bruins blog) – check it out if you have the time. I asked:
How were the Bruins so good against the rest of the teams in the East?
And, as if to corroborate what all the circumstantial evidence says, he replied:
He went on to qualify:
Hence the Canadiens need to stick to the gameplan. Adjust for Anaheim, maybe. Not for these guys...
By the way, stay tuned to Lions in Winter for a couple more primers on this series. I (Topham) handle the key Bruins players to watch for the series and beyond and Tobalev chimes in with his expert views on the critical players from the Habs.
Strange thing though. Since the Habs beat these opponents 8/8 times (or 10/10 if you prefer) it doesn't feel like we know the Bruins the way we should. At least not the bruins the rest of the league knows.
We've heard ad nauseum (from myself included) that if the Habs had lost to the Bruins just 4 times, the Bruins (45-25-11: 101 points) would be ahead of the Canadiens (43-29-10: 96 points).
We know the world doesn't work this way: eliminating the team you play worst against would make a similarly enchanting story for most of the teams in the league. Even so, the fact that the Bruins cultivated more points against the rest of the league than the Habs is a matter of some intrigue.
For me the first question that cam to mind was: "Well, who did they beat?"
The answer: Everyone at least a little bit.
vs. Southeast (10-9-1: 21 pts)
Wins: Atlanta (3), Carolina (1), Florida, Tampa and Washington (2 each)
vs. Northeast – sans Montreal (13-6-5: 31 points)
Wins: Toronto (5), Buffalo and Ottawa (4 each)
vs. Atlantic (12-4-4: 28 pts)
Wins: Philadelphia, Islanders and Rangers (3 each), Pittsburgh (2), New Jersey (1)
vs. West (6-3-1: 13 pts)
Wins: Chicago, Columbus, Nashville, LA, Phoenix, San Jose
Basically, the Bruins were steady as we thought. They never slipped too far down the standings, even despite a brutal December. They picked up a lovely 12 bonus points for losing to the Canadiens 10. But while the Habs gave up on this habit of slipping in for points somewhere around the illustrious Xmas road trip, the Bruins have used it as a tried and tested method for point collection.
Interestingly for a team that gets to OT so frequently, they have not seemed to learn how to win from it: going 8-12 in 60+ minute games this season.
If you take the wins another way and examine which teams the Bruins like and dislike, you can see certain patterns emerging:
1) The teams they lost to most frequently are faster than they are: Montreal, Carolina, Buffalo, New Jersey and Pittsburgh
2) With the exception of New Jersey, all the teams above like to win by scoring – the Bruins don't seem to enjoy that
3) Many of the teams they were most successful had trouble scoring in general as well: New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Atlanta, Toronto
4) They poached bad goaltending: Atlanta, Philadelphia, Toronto and Ottawa after their crisis mode
NOTE: The Bruins were also involved in 3 (count 'em, 3) scoreless draws, twice with the Rangers alone. These guaranteed point (and fan-pleasing) affairs got them 4 points and a good-looking record against the Rangers.
From all these results you begin to get a picture of how the Bruins win and lose. If a team skates at them, passes around them and generally tries to play normal hockey, the opponents have a good chance of winning. If a team gets into a jousting match with them, the Bruins hold more cards.
As a final enquiry, I contacted someone who knows a heck of a lot more about the Bruins than me – Russ from the Bruins Report (a great Bruins blog) – check it out if you have the time. I asked:
How were the Bruins so good against the rest of the teams in the East?
And, as if to corroborate what all the circumstantial evidence says, he replied:
The Bruins were good against the rest of the East because they have, for the most part, played a solid, simple defensive scheme in their own zone that allowed them to minimize scoring chances down low, and kept the majority of the shots to the perimeter. Tim Thomas was more effective playing behind this style of defense, and allowed him to modify his "crazy flailing everywhere like Hasek only not as good"
style.
He went on to qualify:
The Canadiens, however, have proven that the Bruins have a hard time defending against a team that uses their speed to quickly get into the Bruins' zone, and not allow them to set up in their "Box Plus 1" formation. Montreal was very good all season long at both getting into the offensive zone, as well as forcing the Bruins to take multiple penalties trying to neutralize their speed. As evidence, the Canadiens on the PP had a 30% success rate against the Bruins' 28th ranked penalty kill.
So, combine strong team speed with a solid powerplay, and you see where the Canadiens were able to beat the Bruins this season. It remains to be seen if the Bruins can 1) find a way to clog up the neutral zone enough, and forecheck strong enough, to stop the Canadiens breakout, and 2) stay out of the box. If they *can*, it'll be a decent series.
Hence the Canadiens need to stick to the gameplan. Adjust for Anaheim, maybe. Not for these guys...
By the way, stay tuned to Lions in Winter for a couple more primers on this series. I (Topham) handle the key Bruins players to watch for the series and beyond and Tobalev chimes in with his expert views on the critical players from the Habs.
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