Monday, January 09, 2012

Habs By Half:

League-Indexed Shot Metrics

I didn't have the time to do the LIW pie charts for you this time, but thought you'd still all like to see the data. It comes from and shows even strength scoring for and against together with shot metrics (shots, misses, blocks) pooled into attempts on net.

As you'll see, there are colours to indicate where the members of the Canadiens fall amongst the 700+ players that have played 10 or more games this season. It's not a perfect assessment, but it does give some context which is good when looking at single team's worth of numbers.

General notes

Just before the data, some general notes. Behindthenet is best for looking at ES data (and by that I mean only 5-on-5). And the Habs, as bad as they have been in our perception and the unforgiving standings are actually a good even strength (5-on-5) team thus far this season.

The team ranks 10th in goals for at ES/60 and 21st for GA/60, but come out even (with 1 more goal against than for). As a result, the Habs come up in the whole rainbow of colours and seem about an average team -- despite the obvious possibility as suggested by the January 9th standings that they are below average.

Anyway, keep that in mind as you peruse.

Forwards (ranked by ES TOI)

Notes on the forwards:
Who's good? Who's bad? This chart really does contain a lot to both reinforce perception and blow it right out of the water.

Take Scott Gomez. His Corsi number is staggering and it's based on a top-notch offensive generation of attempts, together with a well above average defensive prevention of attempts. It's food for thought for those who still think he's good for nothing. I still contend there's food for thought for those who need to reconcile what we see with this.

The other excellence that shows are Louis Leblanc's and Andreas Engqvist's goals against in only a few games, and Pacioretty and Palushaj's shots for. Of the four stats, I think we should probably only take the Pacioretty attempt generation stat too too seriously. The guy shoots. He didn't use to, but now he does at league leading levels. Unfortunately for Max, he's practically team leader in misses and blocked shots per game too, so his attempts should be viewed with this consideration. Concern perhaps also that for 63 releases of the puck, this goalscorer's line is outside the top 20% of all players in the league for goals per ice time.

ON the negative side of things, Blunden whose low ice time should probably not be questioned despite his recent skill display, and the offensive output of virtually the whole fourth line. Palushaj, either very unlucky or very keen on shooting from the worst possible positions was getting a goal per 100 of his line's league top ten percent chances taken. The word waste might be considered.

The other, and perhaps more surprising, member of the bottom 10% club is Tomas Plekanec at even strength GAA. A relic from the 1980s, his 3.47 must surely be a matter for concern going forward. It takes away attention from the high attempts against number as well, which is practically team worst at this point.

Guys that avail themselves well here: Cole, Leblanc and Engqvist!

Guys that need to pull up their skates (a lot): Plekanec and Nokelainen

And on a team that flutters about the uninspirational average in this area, the rest of the guys display positives, but not too many and negatives, but not too few.

Defencemen (ranked by ES TOI)

Notes on the defence:
St. Denis had an excellent spell. And were it not for just about every other Dman being a rookie on the team, I think he'd get a longer chance. Talk about shielding all you want, one still has to perform under the shield and this AHLer clearly outperformed the lower line NHLers he was put out against.

Gorges has been the best all-rounder, but is painfully average in all but goals for (which if you have to choose one category is probably best).

Campoli is on paper exactly as he is on the ice, a nightmare on the back end, but in the NHL because somehow he involves himself with goalscoring.

Subban deserves credit for his balance sheet, as he plays against the better opponents all the time. His goals are balanced and his shots balance is slightly in favour of offence. He certainly hasn't put on the flash of last playoffs this season, but is becoming a more stable option according to these stats.

The rest are blending a bit. Gill and Kaberle nearly share a profile which is wacky. Showing that Gill is neither as good as he was once was at stopping chances or those that become goals and Kaberle is no longer that great at producing them or the goals.

Emelin, Diaz are learning and have the requisite below average marks, but could be worse. Weber still learning too, perhaps suffering from being at different positions.

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