Game #16Habs Back To .500 With Another OT Win

Details

Date: 12/11/2011
Opponent: Predators
Location: Nashville

Win: 2-1 (OT)

Habs Goalie: Budaj (W)
Opposition Goalie: Rinne (L)

Habs goalscorers: Desharnais, Pacioretty
Opposition goalscorers: Weber

Play of the game

Our first goal was a beaut and was surely my pick for play-of-the-game, I swear. But, the Habs, once again, exceeded my expectations and pulled some magic off in OT. It was Subban, really, who made our goal possible with incredible poise, patience and control at the blue-line. With that came time and space for others as 3 defenders rushed to him. So, MaxPac was wide open when he took the pass and he even had about 2 seconds, while standing completely still mind you (Flyers trap-breaking still), to get off the perfect shot up and over the arm of one of the league's best.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

David Desharnais
David has been playing well, well enough to be on a top-2 line, but with the return of Gomez tonight it looked like he was out to prove that one more time. He scored our first on a very nice play and then was in on the winner too. He makes things happen in the offensive zone and with the solid D and goaltending we are getting lately that is really what this team needs.

Max Pacioretty
Max's best play was certainly his OT-winner (thanks PK), but he was pretty decent throughout. He hasn't been the red-hot player that he was in October of late, but has still been one of our best forwards on most nights. It would appear that he is settling into a partnership with Cole quite nicely which excites me as it is possible that we'll have 2 other equally good lines out there when we are healthy. Max took a lot of hits and contact tonight which is the thing that amazes me the most about his play this year. It would (somewhat remarkably) appear that he isn't afraid one bit to be out there and in a way is even playing faster, stronger and more courageous than he was before Chara assaulted him.

Erik Cole
I liked Cole again tonight and continue to like the new dimension that he is bringing to the Canadiens. He may not have scored or had many chances of his own, but one can never under-estimate the value that his fast, physical play has as it wears the opposition out and, more importantly, creates openings for his teammates.

Defencemen

PK Subban
We can't seem to go a game without an injury or a scare; tonight it was Subban's turn. When he wasn't out there to begin the third I was worried, not just worried for the next few games, but worried about how we would bag the win (or at least one point) tonight. Luckily his absence was short-lived and he was back taking regular shifts early in the third. He was a big reason that we held Nashville from going ahead and the biggest reason why we ended up winning.

Josh Gorges
Josh isn't the same player that he was a month a go; he is better. In fact, Josh isn't even the player he was a year ago; he is better. The biggest change for me is how he is getting involved offensively and how he is actually doing a good job of it. There was another assist tonight giving him 8 points, tops among our D-men. He has stepped up in Markov, Wisniewski and Hamrlik's absence which is good to see. I hope that it continues when Marky is back, however, as it doesn't seem to be affecting Josh's defensive play one bit.

Goaltender

Peter Budaj - Game Puck
He never had to be spectacular tonight, but made all but one of the stops that you would hope he would make. He has only played twice, but has delivered in both games (we lost the other one, but he did play well and only allowed 2 goals). I think that any person can see the value in Price getting 20 nights off this year rather than 10 and Budaj is telling his coach that that is quite alright. His rebounds at times were juicy tonight, and it may be lucky that they didn't cost us, but that also shows how well the D (and forwards coming back) have been playing. His numbers now speak for themselves, so let's hope we see more of him as the schedule ramps up.

Comments

Montreal played another good road game tonight by staying out of penalty trouble (have to do something about the SH goals though; how about D at the point?), for the most part, created chances in the offensive zone and imposed their game-plan on a pretty decent Nashville squad. The Preds certainly took over parts of the game with strong play, but with a combination of luck and hard work we weathered the storm. For our part we didn't generate too many chances (not enough really, considering the quality of their D and goaltending), but on the road if you can grab a point, I don't care how you do it. Winning in OT was a bonus that I wasn't expecting as I was already calling it a win with the 1 point. This team has talent, though, and surprising depth, so it wasn't too shocking, really.

Things seem to be settling back to normal around the East. We're back into that 6-12 range (2 points out of the playoffs) where I think we'll be all year, the Islanders are last and the Leafs only have 10 points in 10 games after 11 in 7 to start. The flip-side to that is that Boston is moving up and so are Tampa. It will be a battle, as it is every year, but that is good news. 3 weeks ago we wondered if it would be a battle at all. We have shown, however, that we are still an NHL-level team who can win on any given night. Our depth is showing and is paying off as is the play in our own end. Once the PP gets going (79 is surely the key) we'll hopefully be back to our old selves, back to that team that doesn't have to sweat until game #82.

Game #15Gorges' First Gives Habs First Extra-Time Win

Details

Date: 10/11/2011
Opponent: Coyotes
Location: Phoenix

Win: 3-2 (OT)

Habs Goalie: Price (W)
Opposition Goalie: Smith (L)

Habs goalscorers: Gionta, Moen, Gorges
Opposition goalscorers: Boedker, Torres

Play of the game

After the first period it was looking like Pleks could be hurt, it was looking like Desharnais was now our top centre. Tom came back to start the second, however, and did very well on one of his first shifts that period. He fore-checked hard and created confusion behind Smith's net. Then came his linemate Gionta (noticeably fueled by the prospect of having Pleks healthy after that scare) who made a fantastic play to strip Gordon of the puck and stun a flat-footed goalie. That goal changed the Habs's gameplan; it gave us a serious chance to win from that point on.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Tomas Plekanec
Pleks played a great first period, but really seemed to step it up after that as to show us all that he was fine. He was in on our first two goals; something that we have now come to expect. Losing him would be as bad as losing Markov or Price so I do hope that he is OK. He seems to have good chemistry with Gionta which may work well for Gomez's return as I really think Scott needs a fresh start, with 2 new faces on his flanks.

Brian Gionta - Game Puck
The skipper was the biggest part of our two first goals, our two best plays of the game. This was one of those games where you really noticed Gionta, a game where he led his team as a captain should. The points give him 10 on the year which isn't horrible considering the slow start that we had. I hope that Martin keeps him with Plekanec for now as we really need 3 strong lines and I think that the G-G combo has become too predictable for our opponents.

Erik Cole
Cole impressed me with his speed and strength tonight. I normally hate seeing our players go to the outside of defenders as more often than not it ends in a turn-over. Tonight, however, in Erik's case he was beating his men, he was creating chances by going around the outside. He is still trying to find his true spot in our line-up, but the better he continues to play, the more options he gives his coach.

Defencemen

PK Subban
PK stayed out of trouble tonight in that he kept things clean in his own end and in that he didn't get sucked into any tussles or into taking any penalties. That meant that he could really focus on his game which is to win the puck back in our end and do something with it in the other two zones. He didn't factor too heavily on our goals, but he did end up +3 which is a number that I think speaks for itself.

Josh Gorges
Gorges has been better of late after a bit of a slow start. Tonight he played as a true #3 or even #2 and that is what we need, especially while Markov is out and 3 youngsters are in. He scored the OT winner which may go down as his only goal of the year, but wouldn't you rather that than the 5th in a 5-1 win or the lone goal in a 1-4 loss? I am not suggesting that he is clutch offensively, but it was nice to see him join in at exactly the right time, even if this is the only time we see it all year.

Goaltender

Carey Price
I thought that he made some poor choices handling the puck in the first period, but aside from that played a very solid game. Phoenix managed 34 shots, so to make 32 saves, on the road, is certainly a great performance. One thing that he did well tonight (and maybe this was purely in stark contrast to Smith) was that he found pucks well after they dropped below or near him. There weren't many second chances and that ends up really helping a fragile team like the Habs out and can very well make the difference between W and L.

Comments

It is always nice when a losing streak is stopped at 2. I have heard a lot about how we were all over Edmonton and could have or even should have won. Too many of those games in a row, however, is a Florida or Columbus type of thing. We have to win the majority of our games some how, some way. Tonight we found a way to walk out of their with the full two points all the while staying out of any real trouble penalty- or injury-wise. Phoenix aren't the most exciting team to watch, but I do respect the clean type of hockey that they play as it means (unlike games against Boston) you don't really have to worry about losing guys to dirty and unnecessary plays. In fact, this is a team that we match up well against and we proved that by matching them step for step throughout the whole game. It is hard to say that either we played better than them or they better than us, nope, it was just a good old (used to be called a draw) even game. It is good, however that we got the extra point as we need it badly.

We're entering an interesting stretch over the next little while. It is a stretch that has us playing more games than we have been doing and a period in which we may get as healthy as we'll be all year. Getting Markov back will be a huge boost. I am sure that a lot of people have forgotten just what Andrei can bring to this team, but I am sure that within mere days of his return they will be reminded. Until then we have to hold the fort and win games like we did tonight. Each loss makes it 2 more games back to where you want to be, so let's hope the Habs take the easy route and win each of their upcoming games.

Game #14 Oilers Slip by Listless Habs

Details

Date: 8/11/2011
Opponent: Oilers
Location: Montreal

Loss: 1-3

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Khabibulin (W)

Habs goalscorers: Pacioretty
Opposition goalscorers: Jones, Gilbert, Smyth

Play of the game

A nice pass from Plekanec into traffic and onto Pacioretty's tape as he moved through neutral ice didn't look like much. Neither did the shot that Pacioretty took from the outside. The knuckleball slipped under Khabibulin's blocker and provided a somewhat lacklustre play of the game in a somewhat lacklustre game, but it energized a frustrated Habs squad and made them think that maybe this goalie could be beaten tonight, and gave them a real shot at pulling a point out of a rather mediocre performance.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Max Pacioretty
I was glad to see him put that one in, given that he'd missed a big window of open net earlier in the third. Given that he was the only forward who could actually finish tonight, he makes the dome.

Mike Cammalleri
Once again anchored our most dangerous line with Eric Cole. The two combined for some amazing run-and-gun chances and exciting hockey. Hit the post at least once tonight and was probably even more surprised than me at Khabibulin's spectacular playing.

Erik Cole
Cole keeps impressing with his size, strength and speed. He helped create our best chances of the evening by using all three along with the excellent chemistry he's developing with Cammalleri to become a dangerous pair to have on the ice.

Defencemen

Hall Gill
Sometimes Gill makes it easy to forget that he's 6'7" and wears an "A" on his chest. Tonight was not one of those nights. Sometimes when you're that big, "pinching" means straight-arming an opponent at his own blue line and pushing both him and the puck back into the zone. Despite his bone-headed interference penalty in the first, Gill was solid in both ends and easily our best defenceman tonight.

P.K. Subban
It was tough picking a dome tonight, as we didn't have a lot going for us this game. Subban looks like he's getting back into the swing of things, though. He was one of the few players unafraid to shoot from the outside and blocked a couple shots as well. It wasn't a spectacular performance, but you didn't need one to make this dome...

Goaltender

Carey Price - Game Puck
It was hard picking a game puck tonight, and this was an impressive performance by Carey, and the official count of 13 shots against doesn't really give a good idea of the work he had to this evening. He didn't let himself get rattled by Jones' less-than-stellar breakaway goal, and made no mistake when Ryan Smyth tried exactly the same move only minutes later. Price kept us in this one until the end despite some good chances that might not have necessarily been recorded as shots.

Comments

A relatively fun game to watch with two fast teams that skate well and plenty of quick rushes, turnovers, and sudden chances. You have to give credit where credit is due, and the Oilers played a good hockey game. They did a great job of controlling the puck in their zone and never really let us develop much in the way of extended pressure. Their penalty killing was extremely disciplined and effective, and Khabibulin was in rare form.

That said, I don't think we played our best hockey tonight. We seemed flat through long stretches of the game, stifled by an Edmonton defence that allowed us to get a lot of transition chances and shots from the outside, but did a good job of controlling rebounds and recovering the puck. Kostitsyn was really noticeable in his absence tonight, and only dressing 11 forwards probably didn't help in that regard.

Given that we seem to want to be a run-and-gun team, we need to convert on more of those run-and-gun chances we keep getting and be more consistent on the power play. Complain all we want about the officiating in the Rangers game, but the fact remains that our power play simply isn't that dangerous - I would say we only looked even slightly dangerous on 2 of our 6 power plays tonight, and we lead the league in shorthanded goals against right now. The bottom line is that we need to find some finish on the ice, on the power play and at even-strength. Sooner would be better than later.

Game #13 Remember, Remember The 5th of November, Habs Take Lessons From Rangers Game

Details

Date: 5/11/2011
Opponent: Rangers
Location: New York

Loss: 3-5

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Lundqvist (W)

Habs goalscorers: Pacioretty, Kostitsyn, Gionta
Opposition goalscorers: Christensen, Girardi, Del Zotto, Richards, Callahan (EN)

Play of the game

It ended with a slick passing play and a fairly straightforward tap in (that should happen more often). I can only imagine how this play began, perhaps: Cunneyworth: :Hey Jacques, have you ever thought about trying Andrei Kostitsyn on the PP?". Prior to this game, Kostitsyn was roughly equal to Mathieu Darche in PP time. This despite being among the best forwards for nearly every game since the beginning of the season, and proving in the past that he could score on the PP. Recognizing the passive triangle defence was a good catch by the coaching team, and placing the better equipped Kostitsyn to man it was also good. It may well have been a mistake in deployment looking back, actually, because strangely Andrei didn't get back on the PP again after that.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Erik Cole - Game Puck
Bear with me. The Habs found themselves behind by 3 goals about a quarter of the way through the game. They knew by that point, the refs would not be handing their favours to them (penalty for stopping in front of goalie?). This wasn't going to be a normal game where the normal gameplan would unfold as the past four. To me, Cole recognised this first and ended up being one of only a few who looked beyond lucky bounces to get back. He didn't score a goal or get an assist, but he got the two best chances made from nothing that didn't go in.

Max Pacioretty
Besides ideas, a team behind needs opportunism and instinct to claw back such a big lead. Pacioretty played that role again in this one. Gionta's shot was a brilliant read of a goalie, but it took a player in high form to ensure he'd be in the sweet spot to pounce. He did it a few more times in the game too. 7 shots in all.

Brian Gionta
A last gasp goal and an amazing shot pass are enough to get Gionta recognised here. His play in the crease was also pivotal, as his penalty drawn led to the 5-on-3 and probably the play of the game. I'd have liked more creativity from the captain, but it's hard to ask for everything from the guy who essentially prepared all the goals.

Defencemen

Josh Gorges
It wasn't that bad a defensive game for the Habs. But there were a lot of little goofs that ended up costing the team. In general, Josh Gorges looked least likely to give up something too dangerous and made his forays into the offensive zone with the finest calculation.

Hal Gill
Because he was on Gaborik duty, he gets more leeway than others. I should say that generally this year, I think Gill has been worse than last year. I think placing him with Diaz is a big misread of what Gill's role on the team can be. However, in this game, he did well. He wasn't on for any goals against, including 8.5 minutes short-handed. It was a sort of Gill style night on D, lots of battles conceded to control the front of the net area.

Goaltender

Carey Price
We'll call this giving the benefit of the doubt. 4 goals against is not good. First though considering the circumstances it was more like 3 goals, that 5-on-3 would never happen again with semi-competent refs (oh wait, this is still the NHL, I guess it will happen then, probably next game). Then, considering the defence that led to the goals, we could point to a couple of things out of the goalie's control. It was still a plain game from Carey, but I feel that's because the rest of the time he was plainly good in his usual way.

Comments

Remember, remember the 5th of November as they say. I thought this game could be one for the archives and one to review when things get real.

Lesson 1:
Don't count on the refs. Sometimes the refs are going to miss calls, sometimes they are going to err on the side of the opposition. Once it happens, there's no reason to dwell on it. More importantly, recognise that you'll have to do something other than fall over and await the PP to get back into the game. Also recognise when the refs are touchy and back off on the snowing the goalie.

Lesson 2:
It takes effort to get scoring chances. I'm not really talking about "scoring chances" like the ones defined as any shot weak or strong from a defined area of the ice. But scoring chances, the ones that look like they could go in, even to the opposing goalie. As I mentioned Cole got a few because he poured on effort at the right time, Pacioretty got a goal because Gionta remembered to shoot low. It takes more effort from behind. As it should.

Lesson 3:
The third period is long, but not that long. A third goal did come from some pressure, but far too late. Until that point, the third largely looked like a long wait for a happy bounce. If you're behind by two to start the third, most times you'll lose. With this in mind, the pressure should look to last as long as the twenty minutes.


I'm sure there are more lessons. But to this group of slow learners, I think 3 learning objectives are quite sufficient. Remember how you didn't win and why, remember what worked and how it looked for a time like the come back was on, remember to try not to play the whole first period a man down. Then forget points left on the table and move onto the next task.

Game #12 Montreal Outlasts Late-Night Sen Storm

Details

Date: 4/11/2011
Opponent: Senators
Location: Montreal

Win: 2-1

Habs Goalie: Price (W)
Opposition Goalie: Anderson (L)

Habs goalscorers: Cole, Kostitsyn
Opposition goalscorers: Smith

Play of the game

Not quite Gorges' come-from-nowhere sprawling takeout of Jason Spezza on a breakaway, but it was close. I'll go with the hard work of Mike Cammalleri behind the net to create a beauty chance on Anderson. He battles for the rebound against the boards and a bouncing puck squirts out, eluding Cole only to have Cammalleri pick it up again and throw it to Desharnais in the slot. As Cammalleri skates hard at the net, Desharnais gives him a great feed that gets sent right to a streaking Cole's tape on the far side of the net, and all that hard work is rewarded with a beautiful and energizing goal for the Habs.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Lars Eller - Game Puck
Eller did it all tonight, and was channeling the brilliance of the less-visible Plekanec tonight. He played very well in both ends tonight, doing a lot of the right things in the right places at the right times, and doing them often. He and Kostitsyn seem to be developing quite the 2-way pairing, and we wonder if Moen will ever be able to keep up...

Mike Cammalleri
Cammalleri worked hard tonight and was a big reason his line looked like the most dangerous one. He had good net presence, great vision and led the team with 5 shots. In short, giving us exactly what we need from him.

Erik Cole
Not that Desharnais had a bad game, but Cole was more in the thick of things more often and to greater effect. Cole's a very well-rounded player, with good hands, speed and a big enough frame to be able to mix it up with most of them. I think his net-charging and crease-battling techniques are setting a good example for a lot of our young forwards.

Defencemen

Hall Gill
Gill was a force tonight. Despite being deked so easily by Spezza on that one play, Gill had a very solid physical and defensive presence, making the Sens pay hard for time in front of the net and getting in the way of a lot of plays.

Jaroslav Spacek
It's becoming quite apparent to me that this is indeed a man who's been playing on his wrong side for the last couple of years. I saw him making a lot of smart plays with the puck in his own end through the first two periods and have noticed that he seems a lot more comfortable and better with the puck so far this season. I like it.

Goaltender

Carey Price
Price certainly had his moments tonight. The pair of saves he made on the Sens' power play in the second period were spectacular, and he kept the score even for the first half of the game while the forwards took their time finding their respective touches. Really noticed him playing the puck quickly and efficiently on many a Sens dump-in, including a spectacular clear during the first penalty kill. Weathered the storm that was the third period with aplomb. Gold star.

Comments

My father and I were on the phone with each other during the first period, and remarking at how this season's Habs look like an almost completely different team as compared to last year's squad. How this team is always looking to play the puck forward, how they follow their shots to the net, and how they consistently have men battling in front and screening the goalie. Even how they don't collapse into their own zone with a 1- or 2-goal lead.

Obviously, that was before the third period. We came out flat in our own zone and were scored on short-handed, and things didn't improve much from there. Outshot 15-4, we looked like the Habs of yesteryear at times; turtling into a defensive shell that sometimes does the the trick and often—like tonight—really doesn't. The penalty we took late in the third was an almost inevitable consequence of allowing too much offensive pressure, but we managed to step up for the last minute and a half of 6-on-4 play with a degree of skill that seemed missing most of the period. It was almost as if we were better on the penalty kill than at even-strength, which wasn't encouraging.

That aside, I liked what I saw for the first two periods: aggressive offense, hard work, and good transition hockey. So I found myself wondering this when my father mentioned it—just where will Gomez fit in the lines, now? We have 3 good centres who I like pretty well right now, and 5 wingers... Given the way Kostitsyn and Eller are playing together I'd like to see what happens if we move Gomez to the wing rather than Eller. Let us know what you think.

Lion of October The Real Player of the Month

It's not Carey Price's fault that the Molson Cup system is flawed, but it is. One has to retain the Molson Cup as a goalie, rather than win it, because the points work that way.

A forward has to win the accolade, and a defenceman would have to raise heaven and earth to get the nod.

The last 12 years in Montreal saw ten goalies get the annual prize, only interrupted by Koivu in 05-06 and Kovalev in 07-08. The last defenceman to win in Montreal: Larry Robinson, 1981.

This isn't unique to the Habs. Such luminaries as Martin Gerber, Ottawa, Vesa Toskala, Toronto and Alex Auld, Vancouver have won the Molson Cup; they're in the net for 60 minutes and are making 90% of saves in most wins, they are top of mind for star selectors.

I don't have a mission to change the Molson Cup. The fans seem to like it (all 200 that vote each game). Rather, I think it only fair that when a player misses out for the recognition he probably deserved over a given month, that he be recognized somewhere.

So, there you have it: Lion of the Month.


With all due respect to Carey Price, who did earn his three star selections, a 4-4-2 record with a 0.900 save percentage and a 2.59 GAA doesn't flatter the team. It leads me to think that perhaps someone was better.

The other candidates: Max Pacioretty and Tomas Plekanec


Pacioretty

Pacioretty jumps out as a choice because we've taken note of his play on this site. 3 times he was named player of the game by us (without significant disagreement) and 5 times he made the dome. A case could have been made for more domes, which is not necessarily the case for Carey Price (who had 7).

His success was recorded in more than our own observations. Max led the team in almost every offensive category in October. He is tied for first in goals (4) and points (9) with Pleks for a start. He's second on the team in total goals created since the start and is first if you pro-rate by minutes played. he's also by far and away the leader at creating goals at even strength.

And for all those who believe that shots drive the whole game, it's worth noting that max is leading the team with shots on net and scoring chances, and is second in overall attempts on net.

In short, he's been "the" offensive catalyst for the team most nights.


Plekanec
Plekanec has quietly crept up the rankings in most of the statistics as well. He currently sits tied for the lead in points and goals as mentioned and leads the team in goals created. Though he was slow off the mark (or a bit unlucky) to start, he now leads the team in goals created on the PP and is showing he might get used to controlling the point of the PP given enough chance to settle in.

Of course we know that in addition to leading the PP, he also takes tough checking assignments and plays a lot of PK. This might not be a plus for him at this point, however.

Pleks has scored more important goals than anyone also. 2 gamewinners of 4 and last game's empty netter saved some blushes that looked to be around the corner.


Price

My low down on Price is that he has had 3 excellent games, 1 very good game, 3 average games and 3 below average ones. This averages out to above average in games, and that's why he led in star points, of course.

However, 10 starts in 11 games gave him much more ice time to get these nods than anyone else, and if this use level continues, pretty much regardless of results, he'll win the Molson Cup.

Because I keep some deeper stats, I know that Price has allowed a goal by the time the other team has had a mere 3.7 scoring chances on average. Knowing how the team in front of him has trouble coming back (not recently), allowing a goal on the first or second scoring chance on net on 6 of 10 occasions counts as a minus for me.


Lion of October: Max Pacioretty

A close race, but on balance, I'd have to rate Pacioretty as the player of October. This is entirely on the merit of his play on the ice and his production of offense for the team. It's entirely reasonable that people want to focus on the recent wins, but Pacioretty as the strongest player in all the losses represented October's positives better than anyone else.

Remarkable to think then that he is also coming back from a broken neck and concussion. Remarkable also that he carried his streaky form from January and February of last season, when such an injury could have easily seen him revert to Max 1.0.

Why All The Winning?

A week off and we content generators must occupy our minds with something.

The trend I am responding to is the one where everyone has a go at deciding why the Canadiens, so bad a week ago, suddenly veered to victory 3 times in a row to restore the hopes and dreams of millions.

Yesterday, I read a few accounts in which the authors’ insight was that Habs won more games because they didn’t lose. Wait that’s unfair, they actually did go a step further than that – that the team won because they scored more goals than the other team.

Today, Sean Gordon “drills down” on the Habs winning streak. In looking in all the familiar places a few hundred yards off shore, he claimed to turn up sand, not oil. As for drilling deeper, it seems he’d rather assume it’d only turn up sea water. Outside the metaphor, he decided to call it luck or law of averages or whatever you like, after he’d checked the shots, blocked shots and PP numbers.

It’s a fair point and one that I see more and more people subscribing to. Basically, as Sean puts it:

The margin between winning and losing for a team like the Habs (or the Bruins, Sabres, Leafs and even Capitals and Penguins) has become unimaginably narrow.

His explanation that small things make the difference ultimately.

Both theories, Sean's and that of those who distill to the only cold hard facts there are imply that the Canadiens fate is at least in some part out of their own control. The notion that what will happen will happen due to so many factors, it hardly bears thinking about.

What this leads me to is the question: "Is the exercise of playing 100 games with all of us watching really just an elaborate exercise in coin flipping?" Provided the coins (teams) are relatively balanced (sorry Florida most years), are the outcomes really just hinged on whether someone’s skate happens to deflect a puck an inch inside or outside the post?

My feeling is that it is not. I may well be deluding myself.

Teams wouldn’t bother to hire scouts, coaches and all the rest of the entourage if it were thus. Surely if we can admit that teams can be off the pace at the bottom end of things (Florida’s decade) then we must have room for the idea that some teams at the top are off the pace set by some of the others. How?

Personnel. By this I mean players as well as scouts and coaches.

Fitness. This may be leveling out, but I don’t think its level yet, amazing as that is to digest.

Tactics. It’s clear as day that some teams operate with different tactical priorities to others. I’d think that many tactics fluctuate in efficiency in this relative way.

Execution. Some players are innately more efficient at executing plays than others (personnel), but I think that some plays can be learned. Execution of plays is what people must be trying to influence with practice (or is that just for internet traffic?)

I think all these matter. I think all these can be conrolled in some way by the team and its organization. I think this is part of each game, albeit the part we don't see.


So if that's true, what has changed with these parameters in a week?

We’re kind of stuck on the personnel front, though Engqvist for Nokelainen did some good. Fitness isn’t something that can change overnight. Tactics and execution can be changed (Olivier pointed out the change in the way three forwards are attacking now vs. then). But it’s hard to see what really changed over a week.

One thing's for sure, trying to answer this question is not simple at all, and definitely produces answers that are hard to justify. It’s easy to see why people assume it’ll be a futile drilling exercise.


But maybe this is because we’re just asking the wrong question. Or maybe trying to answer the question by looking at the wrong data set.

After all, I don’t really need an answer that proves to me the Habs have some chance of winning after a loss. I’ve watched enough to know the odds aren’t nil.

Maybe when we ask what has made the Habs win this week, our fixation is not with the week, but rather what the week might tell us about our true concerns. As a group of fans that is hoping there are people in the Canadiens organization taking some actions to get a step ahead of rivals, aren’t we looking beyond October, November, 2011 anyway?

The ultimate question then, as it probably always should be until that future June night: “Is this team good enough to win the championship?”. And perhaps: “Does this stretch of 11 games tell us anything in that regard?”.

I can only answer for myself, but I’d say yes.

The good signs are there. The team is not allowing themselves to be wildly outshot or outchanced and mostly they are doing this by limiting good chances against. The team and its individual parts seem to be learning as they go.

But there are troubling signs too, not forgotten after a week. The team is rigid in its approach to offense. And without flexibility, they have had trouble when either teams figure that out or just get a big enough lead. The team’s strategy of choice for defending a lead seems to put them more at the mercy of luck than the teams who are defending their leads against the Habs (by that I mean puck concession is dangerously prone to bad bounces).

History will show that these flags aren’t really new. For years this has been the run-down on the Habs. Maybe that’s why my assessment hasn’t actually changed much since September. But this team doesn’t look in many ways to have changed very substantially from teams of Octobers past. Reasonable then to think that without adequate change in approach, change in results might not be drastic.

In a round-about way, I think I’ve argued that I think Sean Gordon (and even the they won because they won crew) was correct. I think those assessments were pretty dead on – for this team. The team is good enough to beat anyone on a given night, but flawed enough to lose as well.

But I’d disagree that this is the way for every team, so that all fans should just resign itself to this epic series of coin tosses. I’d disagree that none of the coins can be weighted. A team like Washington has rigged the game enough in my opinion to make their bets better than 50-50. Quite some margin better.

Take this opinion as you like, but I’d suggest to you that it’d be good news if it were proven fact. Because I tell you what Habs fans, if it’s all just averages, it don’t look good for this team which nabbed 24 Cups in 75 or so opportunities.